Lancet Rheumatology最新文献

{"title":"Blau syndrome presenting as lipoma arborescens","authors":"Hanlin Yin MD , Wanyi Lin MD , Langxian Zhi MD , Fuli Yin MD , Shaoying Yang MD , Liangjing Lu MD PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00055-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00055-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 1","pages":"Page e72"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140797029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heading for remission and its continuation in rheumatoid arthritis","authors":"Paul Studenic","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00336-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00336-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 4","pages":"Pages e222-e224"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation in systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis","authors":"Pierre Quartier","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00299-6","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00299-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 4","pages":"Pages e221-e222"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustained DMARD-free remission in subgroups of patients with rheumatoid arthritis: an analysis of two prospective cohorts with early arthritis","authors":"Judith W Heutz MD , Pascal H P de Jong MD PhD , Marloes Verstappen MD PhD , Prof Annette H M van der Helm-van Mil MD PhD , Elise van Mulligen PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00234-0","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00234-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>About 20% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis on disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) can reach sustained DMARD-free remission. Nonetheless, the 2022 EULAR recommendations discourage complete cessation of DMARDs due to flare risk. The evidence behind this recommendation is obtained from trial populations using biological DMARDs, representing only a subgroup of the total population of patients with rheumatoid arthritis. We hypothesised that patients requiring biological DMARDs represent a subgroup that is less capable of reaching sustained DMARD-free remission compared with patients not requiring a biological DMARD.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this study we used data from two prospectively followed up populations of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis, the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (EAC) and the treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort (tREACH), a treat-to-target steered trial in which biological DMARDs were started when patients had inadequate response to triple DMARD-therapy (methotrexate, sulfasalazine, and hydroxychloroquine). Patient partners were involved in the design of both the EAC and tREACH. The primary outcome was sustained DMARD-free remission, which was defined as absence of clinical synovitis after discontinuation of DMARDs for at least 1 year. Patients who did or did not receive biological DMARDs in 5 years (EAC) or 3 years (tREACH) were compared using Kaplan–Meier curves.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>627 patients from the EAC were included, of whom 391 (62%) were female and 236 (38%) were male. The mean age was 60 years (SD 14) and 502 (95%) of 529 patients were White. 89 (14%) of 627 patients had ever used a biological DMARD and 538 (86%) had never used a biological DMARD. None of the patients that used a biological DMARD reached sustained DMARD-free remission, whereas 37% of the patients who never used a biological DMARD reached sustained DMARD-free remission at 5 years (hazard ratio [HR] 0·02, 95% CI 0·00–0·10; p<0·0001). From the tREACH population, 425 patients were included in the study. 286 (67%) patients were female, 139 (33%) were male, and the mean age was 54 years (SD 14); ethnicity data not recorded. 154 (36%) of 425 patients had ever used a biological DMARD and 271 (64%) had never used a biological DMARD during follow-up. None of the patients that used a biological DMARD reached sustained DMARD-free remission, whereas 15% of patients who never used a biological DMARD reached sustained DMARD-free remission at 3 years (HR 0·03, 95% CI 0·00–0·21; p<0·0001).</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>For the subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis who require biological DMARDs, sustained DMARD-free remission does not seem attainable. In contrast, in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who do not require biological DMARDs, DMARD-free remission is attainable. These data suggest that the current EULAR recommendation to not stop DMARD ","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 4","pages":"Pages e252-e260"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation for children with refractory systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis and associated lung disease: outcomes from an international, retrospective cohort study","authors":"Michael G Matt MD ,&nbsp;Daniel Drozdov MD ,&nbsp;Prof Elisabeth Bendstrup MD ,&nbsp;Mia Glerup MD ,&nbsp;Ellen-Margrethe Hauge MD ,&nbsp;Tania Masmas MD ,&nbsp;Elvira Cannizzaro Schneider MD ,&nbsp;Ulrike B Zeilhofer MD ,&nbsp;Rolla F Abu-Arja MD ,&nbsp;Kyla D Driest MD ,&nbsp;Joseph H Oved MD ,&nbsp;Prof Karen Onel MD ,&nbsp;Christen L Ebens MD ,&nbsp;Deepakbabu Chellapandian MD ,&nbsp;Shanmuganathan Chandrakasan MD ,&nbsp;Prof Sampath Prahalad MD ,&nbsp;Prof Johannes Roth MD ,&nbsp;Susan E Prockop MD ,&nbsp;Juliana Silva MD ,&nbsp;Andrew H Schapiro MD ,&nbsp;Prof Rebecca A Marsh MD","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00275-3","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00275-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis-related lung disease (sJIA-LD) is a severe complication in patients with treatment-refractory systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA). The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) in a cohort of children with sJIA-LD.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This international, retrospective cohort study was performed in nine hospitals across the USA and Europe in children with sJIA-LD who had received allogeneic HSCT. Patients' medical charts were reviewed and their data extracted using a standardised form. The outcomes assessed were allogeneic HSCT outcomes (eg, engraftment and donor chimerism, and transplant-related complications), pulmonary outcomes (eg, oxygen dependence, chest CT findings, and pulmonary function test results), and overall outcomes (eg, death, complete response, or partial response). A complete response was defined as resolution of signs of sJIA without the need for systemic immunomodulatory therapy, in addition to discontinuation of supplemental oxygen.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Between Jan 18, 2018, and Oct 17, 2022, 13 patients with sJIA-LD, who were refractory to immunosuppressive treatment and who had received an average of six different treatment agents, underwent allogeneic HSCT. Ten (77%) of 13 patients were female and three (23%) were male. The median age at diagnosis of sJIA-LD was 4·8 years (IQR 2·9–14·8) and the median age at transplantation was 9·0 years (5·0–19·0). Pre-HSCT chest CT revealed characteristic sJIA-LD. Five patients required supplemental oxygen before transplantation. Patients received various reduced toxicity or intensity conditioning regimens. Grafts were from 10/10 HLA-matched (n=6) or 9/10 HLA-mismatched (n=5) unrelated donors, a 7/10 related donor (n=1), and a matched sibling (n=1). All patients engrafted. One patient had secondary graft failure and received a second transplant from a different donor. Post-transplantation complications included acute graft-versus-host disease (n=5), bacteraemia (n=8), cytomegalovirus reactivation (n=6), and post-transplantation macrophage activation syndrome (n=3). Four patients died; two from cytomegalovirus pneumonitis, one from intracranial haemorrhage, and one from progressive sJIA-LD. At a median follow-up of 16 months (IQR 6–24), all nine surviving patients had a complete response, with no active features of sJIA, no biological therapy or corticosteroid use, and no supplemental oxygen dependence.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Allogeneic HSCT might be a valuable treatment option for patients with refractory sJIA and sJIA-LD and should be considered for children with worsening oxygen dependence or severe treatment-related morbidity.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (R01-AR079525).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 4","pages":"Pages e243-e251"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cardiovascular events in patients with gout initiating urate-lowering therapy with or without colchicine for flare prophylaxis: a retrospective new-user cohort study using linked primary care, hospitalisation, and mortality data","authors":"Edoardo Cipolletta MD ,&nbsp;Georgina Nakafero PhD ,&nbsp;Natalie McCormick PhD ,&nbsp;Chio Yokose MD MSc ,&nbsp;Prof Anthony J Avery DM ,&nbsp;Prof Mamas A Mamas PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Hyon K Choi MD DrPH ,&nbsp;Prof Laila J Tata PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Abhishek Abhishek PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00248-0","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00248-0","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Initiating urate-lowering therapy can trigger gout flares. Gout flares have been associated with a temporally increased risk of cardiovascular events. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with gout initiating urate-lowering therapy with flare prophylaxis using colchicine (the drug recommended for gout flare prohphylaxis by many international societies) compared with no prophylaxis.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;We did a retrospective new-user cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, an English primary-care database linked to hospitalisation and mortality records. People with gout initiating urate-lowering therapy for the first time were eligible for inclusion. We compared people prescribed flare prophylaxis with colchicine with those not prescribed any gout flare prophylaxis. Colchicine prophylaxis (defined as prescription for ≥21 days) prescribed on the same date as urate-lowering therapy was the exposure of interest. A composite of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke within 180 days after urate-lowering therapy initiation regardless of any previous cardiovascular event was the primary outcome. Propensity score overlap weighting was used to balance covariates across study groups. We used Cox regression and performed intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses, the latter with an inverse probability of censoring weighting. The association was measured using hazard ratio and risk difference with 95% CIs. Members of The UK Gout Society were involved in prioritising the research question.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Findings&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Of the 111 460 patients eligible for the study, 99 800 patients with gout initiating urate-lowering therapy were included. 25 511 (25·6%) of 99 800 patients were female, 74 289 (74·4%) were male, 84 928 (85·1%) patients were White and the mean age was 62·8 years (SD 15·5). 4063 (4·1%) patients had previous cardiovascular events and 16 028 (16·1%) patients were prescribed colchicine prophylaxis. Patients with colchicine prophylaxis had significantly lower risk of cardiovascular events compared with those without prophylaxis. The weighted rates of cardiovascular events were 28·8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 25·2 to 33·2) in patients with colchicine prophylaxis and 35·3 per 1000 person-years (33·0 to 37·9) in those without prophylaxis (weighted rate difference –6·5 [95% CI –9·4 to –3·6] per 1000 person-years and weighted hazard ratio 0·82 [0·69–0·94]) in the intention-to-treat analysis. Findings were similar across analytical approaches, stratified analyses, and for secondary outcomes.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Interpretation&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;In patients with gout initiating urate-lowering therapy, the risk of cardiovascular events was reduced in those prescribed colchicine prophylaxis compared with no prophylaxis. These findings provide an additional argument for using colchicine for gout flare prophylaxis.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/d","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 3","pages":"Pages e197-e207"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beneficial side-effects of colchicine for patients with gout","authors":"Hein Janssens ,&nbsp;Matthijs Janssen","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00332-1","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00332-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 3","pages":"Pages e151-e152"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Promise and challenges of mesenchymal stromal cell therapy in severe SLE","authors":"Ioannis Parodis","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00351-5","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00351-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 4","pages":"Pages e224-e226"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Allogeneic umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cells as treatment for systemic lupus erythematosus: a single-centre, open-label, dose-escalation, phase 1 study","authors":"Prof Dominique Farge MD ,&nbsp;Lucie Biard PhD ,&nbsp;Ben Weil EngD ,&nbsp;Virginie Girault PhD ,&nbsp;Pauline Lansiaux PhD ,&nbsp;Ingrid Munia MSc ,&nbsp;Séverine Loisel PhD ,&nbsp;Catney Charles BSc ,&nbsp;Judikael Saout PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Matthieu Resche-Rigon PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Anne Sophie Korganow MD ,&nbsp;Clément Beuvon MD ,&nbsp;Prof Grégory Pugnet MD ,&nbsp;Carlotta Cacciatore MD ,&nbsp;Noémie Abisror MD ,&nbsp;Prof Jean Luc Taupin PhD ,&nbsp;Audrey Cras PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Mark W Lowdell PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Karin Tarte PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00298-4","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00298-4","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with inadequate responses to standard therapies have unmet therapeutic needs. The immunomodulatory, proangiogenic, and antifibrotic properties of mesenchymal stromal cells support their use in treating patients with SLE. We aimed to assess the safety of a single intravenous infusion of allogeneic umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cells in patients with severe SLE.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This prospective, single-centre, open-label, dose-escalation, Bayesian phase 1 study was done at the Saint-Louis University Hospital (Paris, France). Eligible patients were aged 18–70 years, were diagnosed with SLE according to American College of Rheumatology criteria with positive antinuclear antibodies, had a baseline Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment–SLE Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI) score of 6 or more, and had disease that was refractory to first and second line SLE therapies. Patients were to receive a single intravenous infusion of 1 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt;, 2 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt;, or 4 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cells per kg (manufactured from a single umbilical cord) in cohorts of five patients per dose, starting at 2 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; cells per kg. The primary endpoint was the rate of treatment-related severe adverse events (grade ≥3) in the first 10 days after infusion of umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cells. People with lived experience were involved in study design, patient enrolment, and dissemination of the study findings. This study is registered with &lt;span&gt;&lt;span&gt;ClinicalTrials.gov&lt;/span&gt;&lt;svg&gt;&lt;path&gt;&lt;/path&gt;&lt;/svg&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;span&gt;&lt;span&gt;NCT03562065&lt;/span&gt;&lt;svg&gt;&lt;path&gt;&lt;/path&gt;&lt;/svg&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, and the EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT2017-001400-29.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Findings&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;From May 14, 2019, to March 6, 2023, 29 patients were screened for eligibility, eight of whom were enrolled in the study. Enrolment was terminated early after inclusion of eight patients and no patients received the 1 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; dose of umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cells. Seven (88%) of eight participants were cisgender women and one (13%) was a cisgender man. The median age was 35 years (range 26–57) and the median SLE disease duration was 12 years (5–19). All patients received at least 2 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; cells per kg (range 2 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; to 4 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt;). No severe adverse events and three infusion-related adverse events (two grade 1 and one grade 2) occurred in two patients in the first 10 days after infusion. After 12·4 months (range 12–13) of follow-up, no treatment-related severe adverse events and three non-treatment-related severe adverse events occurred in one patient after relapse.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Interpretation&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Our results suggest that a single infusion of 2 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; cells per kg or 4 × 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; cells per kg of allogeneic umbilical cord-d","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 4","pages":"Pages e261-e273"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The projected burden of arthritis among adults and children in Australia to the year 2040: a population-level forecasting study","authors":"Prof Ilana N Ackerman PhD ,&nbsp;Alexandra Gorelik MSc ,&nbsp;Danielle Berkovic PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Rachelle Buchbinder PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00247-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00247-9","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Understanding how many people could be living with arthritis in the future is essential for planning health service needs and national health workforce requirements, and for arthritis advocacy and policy development. This study aimed to forecast the size of different populations with arthritis in Australia and associated health system expenditure, up to the year 2040.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;In this population-level forecasting study for Australia, prevalence data for arthritis, osteoarthritis, and rheumatoid arthritis were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2022 National Health Survey. Prevalence rates for juvenile idiopathic arthritis were sourced from 2021 Census data. Overall, age-specific and sex-specific prevalence data were applied to national population projections to forecast arthritis, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and juvenile idiopathic arthritis populations for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. The base case analysis considered medium population growth; sensitivity analyses considered low and high growth scenarios. Health system expenditure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare were extrapolated to base case projections for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040, and were then inflated to future dollars. To understand the broader context and implications of our projections through the lens of lived experience, an arthritis consumer researcher and members of the Arthritis Australia Consumer Advisory Panel reviewed the arthritis burden estimates.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Findings&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;With population growth and ageing, 5·39 million (95% CI 5·19–5·58) people are projected to have arthritis in Australia in 2040, representing an increase of 31% from 4·11 million (3·95–4·27) in 2025. By 2040, 3·11 million (2·99–3·23) people are expected to have osteoarthritis, 749 000 (652 000–846 000) are expected to have rheumatoid arthritis, and about 8500 children and adolescents are expected to have juvenile idiopathic arthritis. The age-standardised rate of osteoarthritis is forecast to increase for males from 6·28% in 2025 to 7·03% in 2040, and for females from 10·82% to 12·18% over this period. The age-standardised rate of rheumatoid arthritis is forecast to increase for males from 1·56% in 2025 to 1·75% in 2040, and for females from 2·62% in 2025 to 2·94% in 2040. Little change is anticipated in the number of children and adolescents with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (estimated at 8500 individuals in 2040). Based on current spending levels of AU$2100 per person with osteoarthritis and $1918 per person with rheumatoid arthritis, annual health system expenditure for osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis is conservatively forecast to exceed AU$11·92 billion by 2040.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Interpretation&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Using the latest national-level data, this study has generated contemporary projections of the substantial burden of arthritis (both population size and health-care co","PeriodicalId":48540,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Rheumatology","volume":"7 3","pages":"Pages e187-e196"},"PeriodicalIF":15.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142796397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}