Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards最新文献

{"title":"Uncertainty quantification for characterization of rock elastic modulus based on P-velocity","authors":"Jian Liu, Q. Jiang, Ding-ping Xu, Hong Zheng, F. Gong, Jie Xin","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2119580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2119580","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The elastic modulus of rock is an important parameter in rock engineering, but the common methods based on laboratory tests are laborious, especially for obtaining the probability distribution of the elastic modulus that is required in reliability-based design. Many scholars have studied the regression model between the elastic modulus and P-wave velocity; however, most previous reports have ignored the characterization of parameter variability and model uncertainty. To address this problem, a large number of granite samples are collected from the Yingliangbao hydropower station (YLB), compressive wave velocity (P-wave velocity) and uniaxial compression tests are carried out in the laboratory. Then, four different regression models based on the frequentist method and Bayesian method are established to estimate the elastic modulus, the normal priors are adopted by prior analysis and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) is used to select the most appropriate Bayesian regression model. Finally, the effects of sample size and sample selection on different methods are studied, the results obtained from different priors are compared. The results show that the Bayesian method provides estimations that are more consistent with the test data and has better robustness in given sets of different sample selections, especially in small sample size.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"17 1","pages":"521 - 542"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48552832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing Root Cohesion Estimates from Three Models at a Shallow Landslide in the Oregon Coast Range","authors":"C. Cronkite-Ratcliff, K. Schmidt, Charlotte Wirion","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3030022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3030022","url":null,"abstract":"Although accurate root cohesion model estimates are essential to quantify the effect of vegetation roots on shallow slope stability, few means exist to independently validate such model outputs. One validation approach for cohesion estimates is back-calculation of apparent root cohesion at a landslide site with well-documented failure conditions. The catchment named CB1, near Coos Bay, Oregon, USA, which experienced a shallow landslide in 1996, is a prime locality for cohesion model validation, as an abundance of data and observations from the site generated broad insights related to hillslope hydrology and slope stability. However, previously published root cohesion values at CB1 used the Wu and Waldron model (WWM), which assumes simultaneous root failure and therefore likely overestimates root cohesion. Reassessing published cohesion estimates from this site is warranted, as more recently developed models include the fiber bundle model (FBM), which simulates progressive failure with load redistribution, and the root bundle model-Weibull (RBMw), which accounts for differential strain loading. We applied the WWM, FBM, and RBMw at CB1 using post-failure root data from five vegetation species. At CB1, the FBM and RBMw predict values that are less than 30% of the WWM-estimated values. All three models show that root cohesion has substantial spatial heterogeneity. Most parts of the landslide scarp have little root cohesion, with areas of high cohesion concentrated near plant roots. These findings underscore the importance of using physically realistic models and considering lateral and vertical spatial heterogeneity of root cohesion in shallow landslide initiation and provide a necessary step towards independently assessing root cohesion model validity.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89227140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Representative slip surface identification and reliability analysis of slope systems in spatially variable soils","authors":"Hui Liu, Junjie Zheng, Rongjun Zhang, Wenyu Yang, Y. Guo","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2112697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2112697","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A slope system is a series system with numerous potential slip surfaces (PSSs), and its failure probability is commonly evaluated by several significant failure surfaces, or representative slip surfaces (RSSs). Previous efforts have mainly identified the RSSs in spatially variable soils from the perspective of the correlations between different PSSs, the effects of the failure probabilities of the PSSs were rarely considered. With the goal of identifying RSSs from the perspective of the system failure probability, a method adopting the second-order reliability method (SORM) and the multimodal optimisation is proposed. In this method, the spatial variability of soil properties along the slip surface is characterised by local averaging to reduce the number of variables in SORM. Equations for calculating the correlation coefficient between different PSSs with correlated variables are derived. The task of RSS identification is transformed as a multimodal optimisation problem, and the PSSs that make great contributions to the system failure probability are determined as RSSs. The proposed method and the derived equations are demonstrated using two slope examples. The results show that the proposed method is capable of identifying RSSs with significant contributions, and it provides a proper estimate of the system failure probability.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"17 1","pages":"503 - 520"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44423376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of Displacement and Displacement Duration Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: A Hurdle Model Approach","authors":"James I Price, A. Bohara, W. Hansen","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3030021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3030021","url":null,"abstract":"In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused widespread destruction and displacement in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. This research evaluates determinants of displacement and, conditional on being displaced, the duration of displacement for households living in areas affected by these hurricanes. Hurdle Models, which assume that different processes govern zero outcomes (i.e., no displacement) and positive outcomes (i.e., amount of time displaced), are used to model the likelihood of household displacement and its duration as a function of socioeconomic characteristics, hurricane-caused property and neighborhood damage, social support, and financial assistance. Results show that mobile home residence, marital status, educational attainment, the presence of children, and property and neighborhood damage affect the likelihood and expected length of displacement among sample respondents. Financial assistance and social support are also correlated with displacement and its duration, but endogeneity concerns complicate the interpretation of these results. The findings highlight the diversity of factors that slow households’ return following displacement and underscore the need for additional research on the role of social capital in determining hazard-related outcomes.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87850099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of uncertainties in geometry, inter-layer boundary and shear strength properties on the probabilistic stability of a 3D embankment slope","authors":"D. Varkey, M. Hicks, P. Vardon","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2101066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2101066","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates the influence of three forms of uncertainty on the probabilistic stability of an idealised 3D embankment slope. These are: 1D spatial variability in the external geometry of the slope along its length, 2D spatial variability in the depth of the boundary between the embankment material and the foundation layer, and 3D spatial variability in the shear strength properties of the slope and foundation materials. The relative influence of each uncertainty has been investigated using the random finite element method, based on statistics consistent with a Dutch regional dyke. The results indicate that, for such a structure, the soil spatial variability has a much greater influence than uncertainties relating to embankment geometry and inter-layer boundary. In particular, it is demonstrated that the spatial correlation of material properties along the length of the embankment has a greater influence on the probabilistic characteristics of the embankment slope stability and failure consequence than the spatial correlation of properties perpendicular to it. A worst case scale of fluctuation for the material properties is identified.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"17 1","pages":"262 - 276"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42574704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Report for ISSMGE TC309/TC304/TC222 Third ML dialogue on “Data-Driven Site Characterization (DDSC)”","authors":"K. Phoon, Z. Cao, Zhongqiang Liu, J. Ching","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2105366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2105366","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The ISSMGE TC309/TC304/TC222 Third Machine Learning in Geotechnics Dialogue (3MLIGD) was hosted online by the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute on 3 December 2021. There is a consensus that the potential of digital transformation in geotechnical site characterisation is significant. Nonetheless, there is a clear-eyed recognition that the industry is currently governed by a set of rules that evolved from Industry 3.0 and it is only beginning to explore the potential of digital technologies. This state is to be expected as digital transformation is expected to change the “rules of the game” in the context of Industry 4.0 that is rapidly evolving in tandem with emerging technologies. The number of practitioners and researchers who are interested in data-centric geotechnics remains a small minority. There is a unanimous view that this small community can achieve greater impact and hasten progress by fostering more collaborations and working more closely together through: (1) data sharing, (2) creating a “yellow page” of people and projects to facilitate greater connectivity, (3) establishing novel collaborative modes between industry and academia, (4) demonstrating value through “ML supremacy” projects that include mapping studies covering large, real-time, multi-source datasets over large spatial domains, and (5) educating young talents by creating ML internships.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"17 1","pages":"227 - 238"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43246147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conceptual and Analytical Framework as Flood Risk Mapping Subsidy","authors":"L. Batista, Alfredo Ribeiro Neto","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3030020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3030020","url":null,"abstract":"There are still gaps in defining values and category classifications of exposed items in quantitative damage analysis. This paper proposes a framework that refines the development of flood risk analysis at a local scale. This study first performs a quantitative risk analysis, based mainly on secondary data; it then attempts to communicate the results graphically, aiming to reduce the financial and human resources required. We propose an easily standardized database in a GIS environment, analyzing the influence of a reservoir for flood control and the construction of replicable local-scale risk curves. Hydrological (HEC-HMS) and 2D hydrodynamic (HEC-RAS) models were used to simulate hydrographs considering different return periods. For damage estimation, the processing included vectorization of lots, building use definition with Google Street View, classification of standard designs, and a field survey to validate those classes. In monetary value, this study calculated the effect of the construction of a reservoir for damage reduction, showing the potential to determine the effectiveness of measures adopted to mitigate flood impacts. In addition, for each simulated return period, exposure, hazard, and damage maps can be established, making it possible to perform a complete risk analysis.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83909255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Faster-Than-Real-Time (FTRT) Tsunami Simulations for the Spanish Tsunami Warning System for the Atlantic","authors":"B. Gaite, J. Macías, J. Cantavella, C. Sánchez-Linares, Carlos González, Luis Carlos Puertas","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3030019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3030019","url":null,"abstract":"Real-time local tsunami warnings embody uncertainty from unknowns in the source definition within the first minutes after the tsunami generates. In general, Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS) provide a quick estimate for tsunami action from deterministic simulations of a single event. In this study, variability in tsunami source parameters has been included by running 135 tsunami simulations; besides this, four different computational domains in the northeastern Atlantic ocean have been considered, resulting in 540 simulations associated with a single event. This was done for tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz with impact in the western Iberian peninsula and the Canary Islands. A first answer is provided after one minute, and 7 min are required to perform all the simulations in the four computational domains. The fast computation allows alert levels all along the coast to be incorporated into the Spanish National Tsunami Early Warning System. The main findings are that the use of a set of scenarios that account for the uncertainty in source parameters can produce higher tsunami warnings in certain coastal areas than those obtained from a single deterministic reference scenario. Therefore, this work shows that considering uncertainties in tsunami source parameters helps to avoid possible tsunami warning level underestimations. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that this is possible to do in real time in an actual TWS with the use of high-performance computing resources.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91076183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early identification of potential loess landslide using convolutional neural networks with skip connection: a case study in northwest Lvliang City, Shanxi Province, China","authors":"Jianfeng Wu, Yanrong Li, Shuai Zhang, Joachim Chris Junior Oualembo Mountou","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2088803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2088803","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47149839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systematic Comparison of Tsunami Simulations on the Chilean Coast Based on Different Numerical Approaches","authors":"S. Harig, N. Zamora, A. Gubler, N. Rakowsky","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3020018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3020018","url":null,"abstract":"Tsunami inundation estimates are of crucial importance to hazard and risk assessments. In the context of tsunami forecast, numerical simulations are becoming more feasible with the growth of computational power. Uncertainties regarding source determination within the first minutes after a tsunami generation might be a major concern in the issuing of an appropriate warning on the coast. However, it is also crucial to investigate differences emerging from the chosen algorithms for the tsunami simulations due to a dependency of the outcomes on the suitable model settings. In this study, we compare the tsunami inundation in three cities in central Chile (Coquimbo, Viña del Mar, and Valparaíso) using three different models (TsunAWI, Tsunami-HySEA, COMCOT) while varying the parameters such as bottom friction. TsunAWI operates on triangular meshes with variable resolution, whereas the other two codes use nested grids for the coastal area. As initial conditions of the experiments, three seismic sources (2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, 2015 Mw 8.3 Coquimbo, and 1730 Mw 9.1 Valparaíso) are considered for the experiments. Inundation areas are determined with high-resolution topo-bathymetric datasets based on specific wetting and drying implementations of the numerical models. We compare each model’s results and sensitivities with respect to parameters such as bottom friction and bathymetry representation in the varying mesh geometries. The outcomes show consistent estimates for the nearshore wave amplitude of the leading wave crest based on identical seismic source models within the codes. However, with respect to inundation, we show high sensitivity to Manning values where a non-linear behaviour is difficult to predict. Differences between the relative decrease in inundation areas and the Manning n-range (0.015–0.060) are high (11–65%), with a strong dependency on the characterization of the local topo-bathymery in the Coquimbo and Valparaíso areas. Since simulations carried out with such models are used to generate hazard estimates and warning products in an early tsunami warning context, it is crucial to investigate differences that emerge from the chosen algorithms for the tsunami simulations.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74030035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}