Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards最新文献

{"title":"Internal Structure and Reactivations of a Mass Movement: The Case Study of the Jacotines Landslide (Champagne Vineyards, France)","authors":"N. Bollot, Guillaume Pierre, G. Grandjean, G. Fronteau, A. Devos, O. Lejeune","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020011","url":null,"abstract":"The Jacotines landslide is representative of the large mass movements that affect the Champagne vineyards. Understanding the subsurface structure of these slopes and the mechanisms leading to sliding events is of a great interest, particularly for winegrowers who produce Champagne. This knowledge is generally used to elaborate accurate hazard assessment maps, which is an important feature in land use planning. The approach presented is based on the integration of geophysical imaging (seismic wave velocity and electrical resistivity), lithostratigraphic analysis (drilling core) and geomorphological investigations (surface landforms) to reconstruct the relations between the landslide structure, surface water flow, groundwater regime and the overall slope stability. A first phase of instability resulting in a large rotational slip probably occurred during the Late Glacial Period in morphoclimatic conditions characterized by an excess of water. A second one, still active, leading to superficial reactivations and relates to present hydrogeological conditions determined by the internal structure of the landslide.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79493253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine-Learning-Based Hybrid Modeling for Geological Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in Wudou District, Bailong River Basin, China","authors":"Zhijun Wang, Zhuofan Chen, Ke Ma, Zuoxiong Zhang","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020010","url":null,"abstract":"In the mapping and assessment of mountain hazard susceptibility using machine learning models, the selection of model parameters plays a critical role in the accuracy of predicting models. In this study, we present a novel approach for developing a prediction model based on random forest (RF) by incorporating ensembles of hyperparameter optimization. The performance of the RF model is enhanced by employing a Bayesian optimization (Bayes) method and a genetic algorithm (GA) and verified in the Wudu section of the Bailong River basin, China, which is a typical hazard-prone, mountainous area. We identified fourteen influential factors based on field measurements to describe the “avalanche–landslide–debris flow” hazard chains in the study area. We constructed training (80%) and validation (20%) datasets for 378 hazard sites. The performance of the models was assessed using standard statistical metrics, including recall, confusion matrix, accuracy, F1, precision, and area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC), based on a multicollinearity analysis and Relief-F two-step evaluation. The results indicate that all three models, i.e., RF, GA-RF, and Bayes-RF, achieved good performance (AUC: 0.89~0.92). The Bayes-RF model outperformed the other two models (AUC = 0.92). Therefore, this model is highly accurate and robust for mountain hazard susceptibility assessment and is useful for the study area as well as other regions. Additionally, stakeholders can use the susceptibility map produced to guide mountain hazard prevention and control measures in the region.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81037488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2D Numerical Simulation of Floods in Ebro River and Analysis of Boundary Conditions to Model the Mequinenza Reservoir Dam","authors":"Pablo Vallés, I. Echeverribar, Juan Mairal, S. Martínez-Aranda, J. Fernández-Pato, P. García-Navarro","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020009","url":null,"abstract":"The computational simulation of rivers is a useful tool that can be applied in a wide range of situations from providing real time alerts to the design of future mitigation plans. However, for all the applications, there are two important requirements when modeling river behavior: accuracy and reasonable computational times. This target has led to recent developments in numerical models based on the full two-dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE). This work presents a GPU accelerated 2D SW model for the simulation of flood events in real time. It is based on a well-balanced explicit first-order finite volume scheme able to run over dry beds without the numerical instabilities that are likely to occur when used in complex topography. The model is applied to reproduce a real event in the reach of the Ebro River (Spain) with a downstream reservoir, in which a study of the most appropriate boundary condition (BC) for modeling of the dam is assessed (time-dependent level condition and weir condition). The whole creation of the model is detailed in terms of mesh optimization and validation. The simulation results are compared with field data over the flood duration (up to 20 days), allowing an analysis of the performance and time saved by different GPU devices and with the different BCs. The high values of fit between observed and simulated results, as well as the computational times achieved, are encouraging to propose the use of the model as a forecasting system.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78334617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fault Slip Tendency Analysis for a Deep-Sea Basalt CO2 Injection in the Cascadia Basin","authors":"E. Ekpo Johnson, M. Scherwath, K. Moran, S. Dosso, K. Rohr","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4020008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4020008","url":null,"abstract":"Offshore basalts, most commonly found as oceanic crust formed at mid-ocean ridges, are estimated to offer an almost unlimited reservoir for CO2 sequestration and are regarded as one of the most durable locations for carbon sequestration since injected CO2 will mineralize, forming carbonate rock. As part of the Solid Carbon project, the potential of the Cascadia Basin, about 200 km off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, is investigated as a site for geological CO2 sequestration. In anticipation of a demonstration proposed to take place, it is essential to assess the tendency of geologic faults in the area to slip in the presence of CO2 injection, potentially causing seismic events. To understand the viability of the reservoir, a quantitative risk assessment of the proposed site area was conducted. This involved a detailed characterization of the proposed injection site to understand baseline stress and pressure conditions and identify individual faults or fault zones with the potential to slip and thereby generate seismicity. The results indicate that fault slip potential is minimal (less than 1%) for a constant injection of up to ~2.5 MT/yr. This is in part due to the thickness of the basalt aquifer and its permeability. The results provide a reference for assessing the potential earthquake risk from CO2 injection in similar ocean basalt basins.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"337 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84016618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood hazards in urban environment","authors":"L. Gao, Limin Zhang, Yang Hong, Hong-Xin Chen, Shijin Feng","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2201266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2201266","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Apart from the estimation of magnitudes of precipitation, floods and storm surges, modelling of storm water flows in a densely populated urban area is required for designing coping strategies and making decisions. Incorporating surface runoff and conduit flow modelling capabilities has enabled the prediction of urban flood hazards. This study synthesises methodologies for simulating flood processes and evaluating flood hazards in urban environment. Existing models and their associated uncertainties are summarised, and state-of-the-art techniques to build up a numerical model for simulating urban floods and the applications to specific cases are illustrated. A schematic framework for urban flood hazard prediction is proposed, within which multi-source observation retrieval, physics-based modelling, parameter optimisation, uncertainty estimation, model-observation fusion, evaluation of compound effects of multiple factors and digital twin techniques are included. The major challenges and uncertainties in flood process modelling originate from input data, model structures, validation processes and compounding effects. Multidisciplinary techniques for estimating the input data and enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of the flood evaluation should be developed. Great efforts are needed in understanding the process-dependent indicators, coupled modelling and data-model assimilation. Determining the probability of compound floods and understanding the driving factors are also essential for evaluating flood risks.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"17 1","pages":"241 - 261"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43599266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spotlight article “Flood hazards in urban environment”","authors":"Jia-Lie Ching","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2217034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2217034","url":null,"abstract":"Georisk launched the “Spotlight” series in 2013. The purpose of this series is to invite distinguished scholars and practitioners to review an important topic, to highlight research gaps and to suggest fruitful research directions. Volume 17, Issue 2 (2023) of Georisk is pleased to present a Spotlight Article on “Flood hazards in urban environment” by five prominent researchers in the field, Liang Gao, Limin Zhang, Yang Hong, Hongxin Chen and Shijin Feng. Prof. Gao is an assistant professor at the State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macao, China. Her research focuses on developing numerical methods for simulating water-related hazards and integrating remote sensing techniques with numerical models. Her research has been supported by several funding agencies. She also serves on the Editorial Board of Georisk. Prof. Zhang is Head and Chair Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is also Director of Geotechnical Centrifuge Facility and Associate Director of GREAT Smart Cities Institute. Prof. Zhang is Editor-in-Chief of Georisk. He received the 2023 Ralph B. Peck Award from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Prof. Hong is Chair Professor with NOAA/National Weather Centre and the University of Oklahoma. His research interests include hydrological modelling, water resources management, radar and satellite remote sensing retrieval/validation/application, and data assimilation systems for improved hazard prediction under a changing climate. Dr Hong has published more than 350 refereed articles, books and book chapters, which have been cited for more than 23,000 times. Prof. Chen is an associate professor in the Department of Geotechnical Engineering of Tongji University. His research interests include geoenvironmental engineering and numerical modelling of natural hazards. He is Associate Editor of Natural Hazards Review-ASCE and Journal of Intelligent Construction. Prof. Feng is Chair Professor of the Department of Geotechnical Engineering of Tongji University. His research interests include geoenvironmental engineering and soil dynamics. He was Young Chief Scientist of the “973 Program” and the recipient of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars and first-class prize of Shanghai Science and Technology Progress Award. Effective urban flood risk management requires accurate estimation of flood inundation extent and fast information exchange. The urban environment is featured by anthropogenic changes, impervious land cover, artificial surface and underground drainage systems, and densely populated building clusters. Urban flood hazard analysis is therefore more challenging. This Spotlight Article presents a critical review of the basic theory, major urban environment factors, modelling approaches and uncertainties related to the evaluation of flood hazards i","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"17 1","pages":"239 - 240"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45355195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process in Coastal Regions of South Aegean Volcanic Arc Islands","authors":"P. Krassakis, A. Karavias, P. Nomikou, K. Karantzalos, N. Koukouzas, Ioannis Athinelis, S. Kazana, I. Parcharidis","doi":"10.3390/geohazards4010006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4010006","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal environments are highly recognized for their spectacular morphological features and economic activities, such as agriculture, maritime traffic, fishing, and tourism. In the context of climate change and the evolution of physical processes, the occurrence of intense natural phenomena adjacent to populated coastal areas may result in natural hazards, causing human and/or structural losses. As an outcome, scientific interest in researching and assessing multi-hazard susceptibility techniques has increased rapidly in an effort to better understand spatial patterns that are threatening coastal exposed elements, with or without temporal coincidence. The islands of Milos and Thira (Santorini Island) in Greece are prone to natural hazards due to their unique volcano-tectonic setting, the high number of tourist visits annually, and the unplanned expansion of urban fabric within the boundaries of the low-lying coastal zone. The main goal of this research is to analyze the onshore coastal terrain’s susceptibility to natural hazards, identifying regions that are vulnerable to soil erosion, torrential flooding, landslides and tsunamis. Therefore, the objective of this work is the development of a multi-hazard approach to the South Aegean Volcanic Arc (SAVA) islands, integrating them into a superimposed susceptibility map utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) analysis. The illustrated geospatial workflow introduces a promising multi-hazard tool that can be implemented in low-lying coastal regions globally, regardless of their morphometric and manmade characteristics. Consequently, findings indicated that more than 30% of built-up areas, 20% of the transportation network, and 50% of seaports are within the high and very high susceptible zones, in terms of the Extended Low Elevation Coastal Zone (ELECZ). Coastal managers and decision-makers must develop a strategic plan in order to minimize potential economic and natural losses, private property damage, and tourism infrastructure degradation from potential inundation and erosion occurrences, which are likely to increase in the foreseeable future.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73257976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hazard assessment for regional typhoon-triggered landslides by using physically-based model – a case study from southeastern China","authors":"Zizheng Guo, Bixia Tian, Jun He, Chong Xu, Taorui Zeng, Yuhang Zhu","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2188465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2188465","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Landslide hazard assessment is an important component of risk management and land-use planning. This study aims to investigate the application of a physically-based model named after the fast shallow landslide assessment model (FSLAM) to rainfall-triggered landslide hazard assessment. In August 2015, a total of 123 landslides induced by Typhoon Soudelor in Wenzhou City, southeastern China, was taken as an example. Five input raster files (elevation, soil types, vegetation, antecedent rainfall, event rainfall) and two parameter files regarding soil properties and vegetation were determined. Considering the randomness and uncertainty of soil and vegetation parameters on the regional scale, FSLAM model computes the probability of failure (PoF) by using random parameters inputs. Finally, the landslide hazard map was generated for the study area to reflect the landslide risk. The results showed that FSLAM could accurately capture the effect of rainfall on PoF of slopes, and more than 70% of the landslide were identified in very high/high hazard zones. The accuracy of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) reached 0.720, which was higher than that of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model (0.620). Regarding the computational time, FSLAM had better efficiency, and the consuming time was 1/25 compared with TRIGRS.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41554640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reliability-based design tool for gas storage in lined rock caverns","authors":"D. Damasceno, J. Spross, F. Johansson","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2188467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2188467","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49409781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic kinematic analysis of rock slope failure angle based on multi algorithm optimization, a case study of the proposed bridge project","authors":"Yuchao Li, Jianping Chen, F. Zhou, Xin Zhou, Zhihai Li, Qing Wang","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2023.2188466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2023.2188466","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44629129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}