Review of Economics and Statistics最新文献

{"title":"Stochastic Model of Emotional Stress Development in the Educational Process","authors":"A. Solodov, E. Solodova, T. G. Trembach","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-59-67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-59-67","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the study is the development of mathematical models that describe the reaction of the individual to the occurrence of stresses of various nature, including those that appear during the implementation of the educational process. The complexity of developing such a model is confirmed by the lack of theoretical results to substantiate the classic experiments of Holmes and Rae on the effect of stress on personality. In this regard, the task is to develop such a mathematical model that would allow not only to give a theoretical explanation of the experimental results used in the Holmes and Rae stress calculator, but also to become a tool for studying the effect of stress on a person in other conditions, including in the process of educational activities of both the teacher and the learner.The research method consists in a mathematical description of the process of occurrence of stresses that develop over time, and it is believed that stresses occur at random times and are characterized by relative stress values indicated in the classical table of Holmes and Rae. The need to involve these results is that they allow us to confirm the correspondence of the developed theoretical mathematical models to already known practical results. The following main assumptions are accepted in the paper. It is believed that a person is exposed to stresses that can occur at random localized points in time and are interpreted as a sequence of points on the time axis, the number and location of which is random. The response of a person to a particular stress is described by a decreasing exponential function of three arguments – current time, random time of stress occurrence, and stress magnitude. The reaction of the individual to a sequence of stresses is the sum of the responses of the person to individual stresses, i.e. it is assumed that the personality exhibits the properties of linearity. In the process of developing a mathematical model, the distribution of the number of random stresses is substantiated according to the Poisson law, which is used to describe the occurrence of random events with a distinct discreteness. The paper introduces one of the key indexes - the coefficient of emotional load, equal to the ratio of the mathematical expectation of everyday stressful background and the mathematical expectation of the sum of this background and additional stress. The response of a person to a particular stress is described by an exponential response function widely used in natural science applications. The total relative value of processed, experienced, random relative values of stress, as well as their non-random mathematical expectations, is introduced into consideration.The new results of the study are: – development of a stochastic mathematical model for the development of stresses over time, depending on the parameters included in the model. It is shown that the behavior of a person’s reaction to stress, predicted by a mathematical model, correspon","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88243787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Mobility of the Labor Force: Assessment in the Republic of Belarus (Regional Aspect)","authors":"E. V. Gutorova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-4-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-4-12","url":null,"abstract":"The world community emphasizes the problem of growing inequality in the world, among the causes of which are the rapid development of technologies and globalization processes, and pays a special role to increasing social mobility as a key direction for solving this issue. The increasing influence of social mobility on the economy, confirmed by the results of a number of studies, increases the relevance of determining the level of social mobility, including for the Republic of Belarus. The absence of a country among the participants of the GSMI (Global Social Mobility Index) rating and the consequences arising in this regard, primarily related to the difficulty of assessing social mobility in the republic, increase the need to develop an integrated approach to this issue. Thus, the article proposes the author’s methodology for assessing the social mobility of the labor force in the Republic of Belarus, taking into account the national peculiarities of providing official statistical information in open access, suggesting a comparative analysis of the country’s regions in three directions: equal employment opportunities, fair and safe work, and improving living standards.The purpose of the research is to determine the level of social mobility in the labor market of the Republic of Belarus, having previously studied the results of foreign experience in assessing and regulating this phenomenon.Empirical base and research methods. The empirical base is the data of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, formed both at the national level and in the context of the regions of the country. The work is based on general scientific research methods, as well as comparative analysis methods.Results. To achieve this goal, a number of tasks were solved: according to the developed methodology, the positions of the country’s regions in the proposed rating of social mobility of the workforce were determined, followed by their comparison with the national level; a “problem field” was formed for each region separately; the leaders and “outsiders” of the rating have been identified. A number of barriers preventing a comprehensive assessment of the social mobility of the labor force in the Republic of Belarus were identified. In particular, a number of indexes are listed that are of interest from the point of view of their application in calculating the proposed index, but are not used due to statistical inaccessibility in a regional context.Conclusion. The practical value of the paper lies in the possibility of applying its results in the process of making managerial decisions in the field of state regulation of the labor market. The proposed methodology for determining the level of social mobility of the workforce can significantly expand the understanding of the social and labor sphere of the Republic of Belarus, complementing the traditional approach to analyzing the state of the labor market of our country. The formation of an appropriate dat","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87556460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regions of Russia: Clustering Results Based on Economic and Innovation Indexes","authors":"V. Zavarukhin, T. Chinaeva, E. Churilova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-35-47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-35-47","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, one of the main trends is the study of the features and benefits of regional development, increasing the importance of the role of regions in national and world politics. The differences in technological results that can be observed at the national and regional levels are largely due to the peculiarities of the institutional environment, i.e. the degree of concentration at the regional level of high-tech companies, modern production and innovation infrastructures. The regions of the Russian Federation demonstrate noticeable differences regarding the level of socio-economic development, the availability of human and natural resources, the development of educational, scientific and innovative potentials, depending on the historical development of infrastructure. This study examines the results of clustering Russian regions according to the main indexes characterizing the economic, scientific and innovative activity. The classification of regions was carried out by the method of cluster analysis.Purpose of the study. The aim of the study was to identify homogeneous groups of regions that are similar in their economic and innovation indexes, statistical analysis of these groups based on non-parametric methods and methods of correlation and regression analysis, the formation of conclusions and recommendations regarding innovation.Materials and methods. The information base of the study was statistical data and analytical information characterizing the state of economic and innovation activity in the Russian regions. The following statistical methods were used in the study: non-parametric (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients, Mann-Whitney test), correlation (Pearson’s coefficients, coefficients of determination), regression (non-linear regression models), multivariate classifications (cluster analysis), descriptive statistics (averages, structural averages, indicators of variation, etc.).Results. As a result of clustering the regions of Russia using the k-means method, 4 cluster groups were obtained, which are statistically homogeneous within the studied indexes. In order to identify the relationships between the considered indexes, paired linear Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated. The study tested three hypotheses about statistically significant differences between the indexes of the third and fourth clusters. The set of indexes was as follows: the coefficient of inventive activity, internal costs of research and development per employee, the average per capita size of innovative goods and services. For these purposes, the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test was used. The analysis showed that the regions of the Russian Federation are extremely diverse and heterogeneous in terms of their economic and innovative development. When analyzing them, it is advisable to first use cluster analysis methods to obtain homogeneous groups of territories with similar social and economic characteristics, which is confirmed in this study by t","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87921353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price of a Surprise: The Effects of Election Outcomes on Stock Market Returns and Volatility","authors":"K. Arin, Suzanna Elmassah, Samuel Kaplan, Nicola Spagnolo","doi":"10.1515/roe-2022-0039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2022-0039","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract By utilizing a novel data set of 24 democracies for the 1972–2018 period, we investigate how election outcomes, including election surprises, are priced by the stock market. We show that an election surprise increases volatility but has no significant effect on excess returns. A win by a coalition announced prior to the election decreases volatility, however, a large winning percentage for the lead party within the coalition decreases excess returns. An unexpected winning margin over the closest competitor by the lead party decreases volatility by consolidating power, but only in parliamentary elections. Party orientation for the winning party affects neither excess returns nor volatility, even if it is unexpected.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"13 1","pages":"211 - 221"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87624697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Natural Selection, Technological Progress, and the Origin of Human Longevity","authors":"L. Grall, J. Meckl","doi":"10.1515/roe-2022-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2022-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper suggests that feedback effects between technological progress and human longevity lie at the heart of their common emergence in human history. It connects two major research questions. First, the long life span after menopause is a unique but puzzling feature of humans among primates. Second, the shift in human behavior at least 50,000 years ago, which led to an unprecedented pace of technological progress, is still not well understood. The paper develops an evolutionary growth theory that builds on the trade–off between the quantity and the quality of offspring. It suggests that early technological advances gradually increased the importance of intergenerational transfers of knowledge. Eventually, the fertility advantage shifted towards individuals that were characterized by higher parental investment in offspring and a significant post–reproductive life span. Subsequently, the rise in human longevity reinforced the process of development and laid the foundations for sustained technological progress. As a key feature, the theory resolves the debate about a “revolution” in human behavior in an entirely new way. It shows that a gradual emergence of modern behavior is sufficient to trigger a demographic shift that appears as a “behavioral revolution” in the archeological record.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"25 1","pages":"183 - 210"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79281588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Do Different Policies Jointly Affect the Employment Prospects of Disabled Individuals? A Review of the Literature","authors":"Asya Bellia","doi":"10.1515/roe-2022-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2022-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper reviews how different policies jointly affect employment among disabled individuals. I used Google Scholar to find literature on welfare systems, disability, health and employment. I found literature on flexicurity through snowballing. I evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) generous disability benefits constitute a disincentive to work; (2) high investments in activation policies have a positive effect on employment; (3) a flexible labour market fosters employment; (4) disabled workers are more likely to be in temporary employment in countries with a flexible labour market. Hypotheses 1 and 3 find no support in the selected literature. Literature on hypotheses 2 and 4 is inconclusive. Future research avenues are suggested.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"50 3 1","pages":"253 - 266"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76808807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China’s Official Finance in the Global South: Whatʼs the Literature Telling Us?","authors":"Salma Ahmed","doi":"10.1515/roe-2021-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2021-0030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the last two decades, there have been exponential increases in Chinese loans and grants, particularly flowing to the Global South. The subsequent growth effects in the South have led to speculation about China’s development models that govern its official finance and the overall macroeconomic effects. Consequently, a considerable body of research has investigated how different Chinese development policies affect the allocation patterns and outcomes in the Global South. This paper critically reviews related scholarly works, emphasising empirical literature. It identifies that the One China Policy is unanimously the most important strategy in explaining Chinese funding, although this policy tool may not be linked to trade with China and its humanitarian assistance. Chinese finance undermines efforts to promote good governance and contributes to political extortion and environmental degradation in recipient countries by not imposing governance reform conditionality on official financing. However, this argument must be carefully weighed against the positive impact of Chinese finance on health and economic growth, among other benefits. Despite intense research efforts, further research is still needed to understand vulnerabilities associated with China’s development models. The information conveyed by the review will be of interest to foreign aid spectators seeking to learn from China’s experience.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"68 1","pages":"223 - 252"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82242584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of Digital Activity of the Population in the Context of the Theory of Generations","authors":"M. Bikeeva","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-25-34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-25-34","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. Digital reality dictates the need to develop a new block of competencies - digital skills. For employment and subsequent career growth, knowledge of computer technology, programming skills and the use of software are of high importance. For a high-quality daily life of different age categories of the population, competencies in the use of personal computers, the Internet and other types of ICT are required. In the context of the rapid expansion of the Internet audience, it is of particular interest to assess the activity of the population in the digital space and analyze the purposes of its use. The materials of the article touch upon the theory of generations, which reveals patterns in the behavior of people born in the same time intervals. Representatives of different generations under the influence of economic, political, social and cultural factors form their own values and perception of the world. Which, ultimately, will require the adaptation of both the consumer goods and services market and the labor market to the characteristics of representatives of each generation. This predetermines the need to study the specifics of the use of the digital environment by representatives of the designated economically active generations.Materials and methods. The information base of the study was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service for 2012–2019, as well as the results of sample surveys of households on the use of ICT. As a tool for assessing the digital behavior of representatives of economically and socially active generations, statistical methods were used: comparative analysis and analysis of time series.Results. The age structure of the population of the Russian Federation is represented by the following generations: the baby boomer generation, generations X, Y and Z. The share of these economically and socially active generations is 95% of the total population of the country. The share of the greatest and silent generations is 5%. Each generation has its own patterns of behavior. Comparative characteristics of the features of the use of the digital environment led to the conclusion that for all generations the priority goals of using the Internet are communications and personal interaction. The main differences are manifested in the specifics of actions performed by representatives of the generations under consideration on the Internet and consumer preferences for goods and services presented on different digital platforms. At the same time, representatives of generation Z have a higher level of digital skills compared to representatives of other generations. The results of the study are of interest to business representatives when developing strategic directions for interacting with consumers and subsequently involving a significant part of society in the online space.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76377386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Essence of Institutional Mechanisms of Population Adaptation and Assessment of their Effectiveness","authors":"N. Kremlev","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-13-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-13-24","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to determine the level of effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region. The relevance of the study is related to the problems of reflecting the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, which affect their effectiveness in the transition to dynamic development. It is assumed that the determination of the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region is evaluated on the basis of characteristics of population reproduction, growth of value added and people’s standard of living. The interaction of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with six institutional sectors of the economy is considered. The research methods are the theory and methodology of statistics, including the index and tabular method, grouping of data, series of dynamics and comparative estimates. To determine the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region, a statistical approach was used. The author gives an assessment of the level of effectiveness of the region according to 9 main quantitative and qualitative indexes that objectively reflect the general state of the economy, the standard of living of the population and the evolution of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation for the period 1990-2020.Research results: the concept of the institutional mechanism of the population adaptation is clarified as a set of consistent actions of socioeconomic institutions, ensuring their effective interaction through the implementation of formal and informal rules, norms and standards in order to improve the level and quality of life of the population. In this regard, a toolkit has been developed to determine the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation in terms of population reproduction, value-added growth, and the standard of living of the population. Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in many regions of the country regarding the use of institutional mechanisms for the population adaptation, which have contributed to improving the level of efficiency of business entities and revealing the characteristics of specific territories. However, in a number of regions of the country, including the Kurgan region, there is a significant decrease in the number and migration outflow of the population, real incomes of the population are slowly increasing.Conclusion: the use of the statistical approach makes it possible to determine not only the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, but also the effectiveness of the implemented development strategies for the future and the quality of the adopted decisions by management bodies. The interrelations of the used institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with the level of economic potential of the territory are revealed. It is established that the population adap","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79042192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Combination of Harmonics and Polynoms in Econometric Modeling of RUB/AZN Exchange Rate","authors":"L. M. Mamedova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-48-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-5-48-58","url":null,"abstract":"Conducting a combinational polynomial and spectral analysis of time series formed on the basis of daily observations of changes in the RUB/AZN exchange rate with pronounced fluctuations for the period 11.05.2017- 02.11.2018 based on computer econometric modeling.The purpose of the research. The possibility of describing the global rate dynamics by approximation with a combination of a nonlinear polynomial trend and harmonic oscillations of various frequencies relative to this curve; the ability to calculate amplitudes and phases, which can be used to estimate the power spectrum of the Fourier approximation; the ability to develop a high-precision algorithm for predicting exchange rate changes in RUB/AZN.Materials and methodology. The official statistics of the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan were used; classical methods of mathematical analysis and economic analysis; methods of econometrics, harmonic (Fourier) analysis, statistical spectral analysis, “Fourier analysis” of the MS Excel add-in, tools of the Eviews 8 application package with the standard deviation and average approximation error being taken into account, the necessary statistical procedures required for identifying and estimating the parameters of the model and checking its adequacy and accuracy.Results. By breaking up the empirical analysis of given time series into time-scale polynomial and time-frequency components. Combinations of the optimal degree of variants of polynomials up to the 11th degree and the number of harmonics of sines and cosines of all possible discrete frequencies were revealed.Conclusion. This result allows us to reconsider the asymmetric impact of RUB/AZN exchange rate pressure on the foreign trade balance between Russia and Azerbaijan. An increase/decrease in exchange rate pressure affects the likelihood of a ruble-manat crisis, while this phenomenon may negatively/positively affect the foreign trade balance and may make it difficult/easier to import resources, goods and services between countries. This, in turn, adds significance to the task of further detailed structuring and analysis of exchange rate changes in RUB/AZN in the face of increased sanction pressures against Russia, thereby actualizing the development of the retrospective part of the study.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75251783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}