{"title":"Good risk measures, bad statistical assumptions, ugly risk forecasts","authors":"Michael Michaelides, Niraj Poudyal","doi":"10.1111/fire.12368","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12368","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes the time-heterogeneous Student's <i>t</i> autoregressive model as an alternative to the various volatility forecast models documented in the literature. The empirical results indicate that: (i) the proposed model has better forecasting performance than other commonly used models, and (ii) the problem of reliable risk measurement arises primarily from the model risk associated with risk forecast models rather than the particular risk measure for computing risk. Based on the results, the paper makes recommendations to regulators and practitioners.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 2","pages":"519-543"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/fire.12368","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135367343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Returns to scale in cost, revenue, and profit for European banks: New results from nonparametric local linear methods","authors":"Ji Wu, Shirong Zhao","doi":"10.1111/fire.12369","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12369","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The continuously increasing bank sizes have received much attention from both policymakers and researchers. We present new estimates of returns to scale in cost, revenue, and profit for European banks over 2000–2020 based on nonparametric, local-linear methods. We find that most banks faced increasing returns to scale in cost and decreasing returns to scale in revenue and profit across years, across European countries, and across bank size quartiles. Our results suggest that restricting the size of banks may not bring too much loss of revenue and profit, but could prevent European banks from exploiting increasing returns to scale in cost.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 2","pages":"487-517"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135367962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is corporate finance research in decline?1","authors":"David J. Denis","doi":"10.1111/fire.12370","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12370","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There has been a secular decline in published research on corporate finance topics over the past decade or so. While this raises questions about the vitality of the field going forward, I argue that a number of recent developments represent important new directions for research in corporate finance. These developments have begun to have an impact on scholarly activity and I expect this to continue in the near future.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 2","pages":"257-264"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135406078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Short seller monitoring and real earnings management","authors":"Tianyu Cai, Lixiong Guo, Yongxian Tan","doi":"10.1111/fire.12367","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12367","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exploiting an exogenous shock to short selling costs brought by the RegSHO, we find that short seller monitoring restrains real earnings management (REM). The effect is concentrated in firms facing a lower cost of REM than accruals management. Litigation risk and reduced CEO wealth gain from REM are two plausible channels through which short seller monitoring deters REM. Lastly, we find that short interests on stocks of treated firms increase after the announcement of the RegSHO relative to that on stocks of control firms, and the increase is concentrated in the subsample of treated firms with signs of REM.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 1","pages":"203-225"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136113137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determinants of commodity market liquidity","authors":"Pankaj K. Jain, Ayla Kayhan, Esen Onur","doi":"10.1111/fire.12366","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12366","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using positions data for 18 commodity futures during 2001–2020, we examine systematic and idiosyncratic determinants of Amihud price impact and microstructure noise proxying for permanent and transitory components of commodity futures liquidity. Idiosyncratic factors have the largest economic impact: while excess hedging demand increases PI and noise, active position-taking (by market-makers) in excess of the hedging demand reduces noise. Systematic factors, including the lack of competition among liquidity providers, adversely impact liquidity, but this effect is mitigated if liquidity providers are well-capitalized. Supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) makes holding inventory costlier and is associated with lower liquidity.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 1","pages":"9-30"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136342170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Share repurchases and managerial reference points","authors":"Nicholas Clarke, Dylan Norris, Andrew Schrowang","doi":"10.1111/fire.12364","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12364","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the relationship between managerial reference points and corporate payout policy. We find that share repurchase activity increases as a firm's current stock price declines in relation to the price at which it previously repurchased shares. To facilitate a behavioral interpretation of this relation, we show that it weakens around stock splits, is asymmetric over gains and losses, and strengthens when prior repurchase prices are more salient. Further, the relation is not explained by traditional repurchase motives. The results suggest a behavioral pattern in which managers use prior repurchase prices as reference points for current repurchases.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 1","pages":"57-87"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90311977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Olga Dodd, Bart Frijns, Robin Kaiji Gong, Shushu Liao
{"title":"Board cultural diversity and firm performance under competitive pressures","authors":"Olga Dodd, Bart Frijns, Robin Kaiji Gong, Shushu Liao","doi":"10.1111/fire.12365","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12365","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the impact of board cultural diversity, based on directors' ancestry, on firm performance conditional on product market competition. We argue that culturally diverse boards foster critical thinking and offer creative solutions that help firms thrive in competitive environments. We document that culturally diverse boards are associated with superior performance for firms operating in highly competitive industries. To address potential endogeneity issues, we use a quasi-natural experiment of the U.S. import tariff cuts. The positive impact of board cultural diversity on firm performance in competitive markets manifests itself in firms that innovate more, require creative inputs, and face heightened predation risk due to their high interdependence with industry rivals, in line with culturally diverse boards effectively performing their advisory role. Lastly, we find no evidence that board cultural diversity is associated with enhanced monitoring as its benefits fade in the presence of powerful CEOs.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 1","pages":"89-111"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/fire.12365","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75489600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Petter Dahlström, Björn Hagströmer, Lars L. Nordén
{"title":"The determinants of limit order cancellations","authors":"Petter Dahlström, Björn Hagströmer, Lars L. Nordén","doi":"10.1111/fire.12363","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12363","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Almost all limit orders are canceled. We examine two economic channels that can motivate cancellations: reductions in the expected profit at execution, and reductions in the probability of execution. An order-level analysis shows that changes in depth at the best bid and offer prices, as well as changes in the order queue position, influence cancellation in a way consistent with the former channel, that market makers monitor the expected profit at execution of each limit order. Although buy-side investors use passive orders extensively, our findings indicate that limit order cancellations on aggregate are best understood through models of liquidity provision.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 1","pages":"181-201"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/fire.12363","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90588080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Where does ex-dividend trading occur: An examination of trading venues around dividends","authors":"Justin Cox, Kathleen P. Fuller, Robert Van Ness","doi":"10.1111/fire.12362","DOIUrl":"10.1111/fire.12362","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the fragmentation of trading around the ex-dividend date. We argue that the taker-maker and dark trading venues provide potential dividend capture traders a more favorable platform than the maker-taker venue(s) given the price improvement, lower queues, and lower net transaction costs. Our evidence indicates that taker-maker (dark) venue market share decreases (increases) on cum-dividend days but reverts to normal levels on the ex-dividend day. Additionally, we find fragmented trading impacts the ex-dividend price change and improves price efficiency. Finally, we find evidence that retail trades are associated with potential dividend-capture trading.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"59 1","pages":"31-55"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87905845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Samuel Fosu, Henry Agyei-Boapeah, Neytullah Ciftci
{"title":"Credit information sharing and cost of debt: Evidence from the introduction of credit bureaus in developing countries","authors":"Samuel Fosu, Henry Agyei-Boapeah, Neytullah Ciftci","doi":"10.1111/fire.12361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12361","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the effect of credit information sharing on cost of debt, with particular focus on the introduction of credit bureaus in developing countries. Using a large dataset of firms from 28 developing countries over the period 2004–2019, we find that firms’ average cost of debt significantly declines following the introduction of credit bureaus. This finding is robust to an alternative measure of cost of debt, several firm- and country-level controls and to firm- and year-fixed effects. The reduction in cost of debt is more pronounced for less transparent firms and for firms domiciled in countries with weak institutional framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":47617,"journal":{"name":"FINANCIAL REVIEW","volume":"58 4","pages":"783-810"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/fire.12361","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50143922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}