JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES最新文献

{"title":"Fiscal adjustments and TFP dynamics: addressing reverse causality within a heterogeneous panel framework with global shocks","authors":"Gianni Carvelli","doi":"10.1108/jes-08-2023-0447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2023-0447","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"145 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138527184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment: the mediating role of executive stock options","authors":"Sedki Zaiane, Halim Dabbou","doi":"10.1108/jes-08-2023-0424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2023-0424","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The current study aims to investigate the mediating role of executive stock options in the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and research and development (R&amp;D) investment through two measures of financial constraints.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>This study is based on a sample of 90 French firms for the period extending from 2008 to 2020. The authors employ a panel threshold method to analyze whether the impact of financial constraints on R&amp;D investment depends on the level of financial constraints or not.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>Using SA index (Hadlock and Pierce, 2010) and FCP index (Schauer <em>et al.</em>, 2019) as measures of financial constraints, the authors demonstrate that the relationship between financial constraints and R&amp;D investment is nonlinear. Moreover, the authors find that executive stock options mediate partially the relationship between financial constraints and R&amp;D investment. More specifically, the authors show that stock options could play two roles depending on the level of the financial constraints; inconsistent mediation for firms with low/medium level of financial constraints and partial mediation for highly constrained firms.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This paper is the first to the best of the authors' knowledge to investigate the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&amp;D investment as well as the mediating role of executive stock option using dynamic panel threshold models.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"145 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138527191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty and the Greek economic crisis","authors":"Gikas Hardouvelis, Georgios Karalas, Dimitrios Karanastasis, Panagiotis Samartzis","doi":"10.1108/jes-06-2023-0327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2023-0327","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p> To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p> EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p> Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138527199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the financial efficiencies and productivities of the banking sector","authors":"Fazıl Gökgöz, Engin Yalçın, Noor Ayoob Salahaldeen","doi":"10.1108/jes-07-2023-0338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-07-2023-0338","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The banking industry, which is one of the most significant industries when taking into account both deposit sizes and employment statistics in Turkey, is one of the country's primary economic drivers. In this regard, it is highly important to evaluate banks as it is necessary to present to what extent they use their resources efficiently. The main purpose of the study is to analyze the efficiencies of Turkish banks by the two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI).</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The authors aim to analyze both the efficiency and productivity of Turkish banks by two-stage DEA and the MPI, which enable decomposing into sub-sections of production processes. Hence, more detailed insight into the Turkish banking system can be presented through two-stage efficiency and production approaches.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>DEA results indicate that two out of three state-owned banks achieved resource efficiency while none of the investigated banks performed profit efficiency throughout the investigated period. Besides, average resource efficiency is found higher than average profit efficiency in Turkish banks. MPI results reveal that both technological and technical improvement prospects exist for Turkish banks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>The original contribution of this paper is to employ two-stage DEA and the MPI, which reflect both the static and dynamic performance of the Turkish banking sector. In this regard, this study aims to be a pioneer by both reflecting the static and dynamic performance analysis of Turkish banks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"24 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138512443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"US unemployment rate: Federal Reserve versus private information","authors":"Hamid Baghestani, Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul","doi":"10.1108/jes-05-2023-0273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-05-2023-0273","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>This study evaluates the Federal Reserve (Fed) initial and final forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983Q1-2018Q4. The Fed initial forecasts in a typical quarter are made in the first month (or immediately after), and the final forecasts are made in the third month of the quarter. The analysis also includes the private forecasts, which are made close to the end of the second month of the quarter.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>In evaluating the multi-period forecasts, the study tests for systematic bias, directional accuracy, symmetric loss, equal forecast accuracy, encompassing and orthogonality. For every test equation, it employs the Newey–West procedure in order to obtain the standard errors corrected for both heteroscedasticity and inherent serial correlation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>Both Fed and private forecasts beat the naïve benchmark and predict directional change under symmetric loss. Fed final forecasts are more accurate than initial forecasts, meaning that predictive accuracy improves as more information becomes available. The private and Fed final forecasts contain distinct predictive information, but the latter produces significantly lower mean squared errors. The results are mixed when the study compares the private with the Fed initial forecasts. Additional results indicate that Fed (private) forecast errors are (are not) orthogonal to changes in consumer expectations about future unemployment. As such, consumer expectations can potentially help improve the accuracy of private forecasts.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>Unlike many other studies, this study focuses on the unemployment rate, since it is an important indicator of the social cost of business cycles, and thus its forecasts are of special interest to policymakers, politicians and social scientists. Accurate unemployment rate forecasts, in particular, are essential for policymakers to design an optimal macroeconomic policy.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138512442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war","authors":"António Miguel Martins, Susana Cró","doi":"10.1108/jes-08-2023-0390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2023-0390","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>This paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>This study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138542261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade potential in European Union manufacturing","authors":"Lazaros Antonios Chatzilazarou, Dimitrios Dadakas","doi":"10.1108/jes-06-2023-0292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2023-0292","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"25 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138512441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fast-food consumption and individual time preferences in Russia: evidence for the social policy","authors":"Tatiana Kossova, Maria Sheluntcova","doi":"10.1108/jes-06-2023-0282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2023-0282","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This article aims to investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and individual time preferences in the demand for fast-food in Russia. An individual discount rate shows the ability of a person to postpone utility from consumption to future periods. Design/methodology/approach An individual discount rate is measured through a hypothetical money experiment. The database is the special survey of the Levada analytical center conducted in 2017. Multivariate probit model enables the authors to consider the possible endogeneity of individual discount rate and reveal the relationship between socioeconomic factors and frequent fast-food consumption. Findings Results show that a higher individual discount rate is related to frequent consumption of fast-food. At the same time, there are factors that provoke both a higher individual discount rate and the refusal of frequent consumption of fast-food. Findings advise the prioritization of measures highlighting the short-term benefits of healthy eating and the short-term costs of avoiding it. Originality/value To the authors' knowledge, this article is the first one which presents comprehensive investigation of microeconomic factors of fast-food consumption in Russia including individual time preferences of consumers.","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"3 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136229684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the resilience of the US banking sector under a macroeconomic stress testing","authors":"Mohamed Lachaab","doi":"10.1108/jes-03-2023-0116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2023-0116","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders. The question is whether Basel III regulation is ideal, that is, adequate to deal with a crisis, such as the 2007–2009 global financial crisis? The purpose of this paper is threefold: First, perform a stress testing exercise on the US banking sector, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under the Basel III regulatory framework. Second, allow the study to cover the post-crisis period, while referring to key Basel III regulatory requirements. And third, focus on the resilience of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), which are supposed to support the US financial system in times of stress and therefore whose failure causes the entire financial system to fail. Design/methodology/approach The authors used a sample of the 24 largest US banks observed over the period Q1-2015 to Q1-2021 and a scenario-based vector autoregressive conditional forecasting approach. Findings The authors found that the model successfully produces accurate forecasts and simulates the responses of the solvency and liquidity indicators to different real and historical macroeconomic shocks. The authors also found that the US banking sector is resilient and can withstand both historical and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks because of its compliance with the Basel III capital and liquidity regulations, which consist of encouraging banks to hold high-quality liquid assets and stable funding resources and to strengthen their capital, which absorbs the losses incurred in a crisis. Originality/value The authors developed a framework for testing the resilience of the US banking sector under macroeconomic shocks, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under Basel III regulatory framework, a point not yet well studied elsewhere, and most studies on this subject are based on precrisis data. The authors also focused on the resilience of D-SIBs, whose failure causes the failure of the entire financial system, which previous studies have failed to examine.","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"2 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136229871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Abortion stigma, government regulation and religiosity: findings from the case of Iran","authors":"Farzin Rasoulyan, Seyed Reza Mirnezami, Arash Khalili Nasr, Bahar Morshed-Behbahani","doi":"10.1108/jes-06-2023-0310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2023-0310","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose Experiencing stigma after abortion may decelerate the accumulation of human capital. Despite the importance of studying the relationship between religiosity and abortion stigma, the topic is understudied, especially in Islamic contexts. Abortion was legalized in Iran in 2005. Under the new law, far more cases are allowed for abortion. This change provided an opportunity to explore the interplay of abortion stigma, legalization and religiosity in Iran. Design/methodology/approach Using regression analysis based on 291 completed questionnaires from two cities in Iran, this study analyzes the relation between abortion stigma level and religiosity in Iran, controlling for contextual and individual variables. The time trend is also identified. The authors use different manifestations of abortion stigma as dependent variables. Findings The authors found that abortion stigma and its two manifestations decreased after the new law, suggesting that its legalization might have caused abortion stigma to decrease gradually. Another finding of this study is that the correlations between abortion stigma (internalized stigma) and individual religiosity level are meaningful and positive; religious people feel higher levels of abortion stigma. Originality/value The study supports the idea that effective health regulations (in the specific case of abortion) would result in less cost/risk of social issues like stigma. Policymakers in religious societies must pay more attention to the specific case of abortion stigma since it is very important for the mental health of women who think of abortion and/or select it.","PeriodicalId":47604,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES","volume":"57 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135091773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}