Economic Record最新文献

{"title":"Hayek: A Life, 1899–1950, by Bruce Caldwell and Hansjörg Klausinger (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2022), pp. 840.","authors":"Selwyn Cornish","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12796","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12796","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"269-271"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140073051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Aspects of Australian Federation: Trade Restrictiveness and Welfare Effects in the Colonies and the Commonwealth, 1900–3*","authors":"Brian D. Varian,&nbsp;Luke H. Grayson","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12790","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12790","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australian Federation in 1901 entailed the formation of a customs union among its formerly tariff-autonomous colonies. Although the elimination of tariff barriers to intercolonial/interstate trade would have been welfare-enhancing, Australia's common external tariff was set considerably higher than the tariffs on external goods imported by the pre-Federation colonies, implying a welfare reduction. Using a dataset of 3,584 commodity- and colony-disaggregated imports, this paper estimates trade restrictiveness indices and welfare losses for the Australian colonies and Commonwealth. Despite the high external tariff post Federation, the customs union produced a net static welfare gain conservatively estimated to have been 0.17 per cent of GDP.</p>","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"74-100"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12790","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140004558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation and Output in New Zealand*","authors":"Robert Kirkby,&nbsp;Huong Ngoc Vu","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12792","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12792","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We identify monetary policy shocks in New Zealand as 1-day changes in the whole yield curve around monetary policy announcements. The impacts of these shocks on inflation and output are estimated using functional local projections. We find that the effects of monetary policy shocks are standard in the short run but might be different in the long run. Monetary policy shocks in a small open economy have similar effects as in a large economy, except that unconventional monetary policy announcements have limited impact on long-term interest rates. Accounting for forward guidance, used in New Zealand since 1997, is important.</p>","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"160-187"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12792","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139979670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can we Use High-Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!*","authors":"Jonathan Hambur,&nbsp;Qazi Haque","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12786","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12786","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the effects of three facets of monetary policy in Australia using high-frequency yield changes around the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcements: current policy, signalling/forward guidance and changes in premia. Shocks to current policy have similar effects to those identified using conventional approaches, but the effects of signalling and premia shocks are imprecisely estimated. Still, the approach provides the following evidence: forward guidance shocks raised future rate expectations in the mid-2010s as the Reserve Bank of Australia highlighted housing risks; COVID-era policy mainly affected term premia, unlike pre-COVID policy; shocks to the expected path of rates are predictable, suggesting markets misunderstand the RBA's reaction to data.</p>","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"3-43"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139978844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Upholding Indigenous Economic Relationships: Nehiyawak Narratives, by Shalene Wuttunee Jobin (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2022), pp. 272.","authors":"Siobhan McDonnell","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12787","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12787","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"260-261"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139956164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When Does the Gender Gap in Financial Literacy Begin?*","authors":"Alison Preston,&nbsp;Robert E. Wright","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12785","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12785","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Research to date has failed to generate a comprehensive understanding of the source of the gender gap in financial literacy in adulthood. Using microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and an analysis covering four age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29 and 30–34), this paper suggests that the gender gap starts young and well before individuals enter adulthood. The analysis also suggests that that raw (unadjusted) gender gap likely underestimates the underlying gap. It is important to establish whether the gap begins before or after children enter school, since policy aimed at addressing it would be very different.</p>","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"44-73"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12785","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Welfare for Markets: A Global History of Basic Income, by A. Jäger and D. Zamora Vargas (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2023), pp. 264","authors":"Ben Spies-Butcher","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12791","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12791","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"266-269"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139785936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Zero Interest Policy & the New Abnormal: A Critique, by Michael Beenstock (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2022)","authors":"James Morley","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12789","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12789","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In his book, Michael Beenstock labels the recent responses to macroeconomic crises that involve setting policy interest rates close to zero and running large budget deficits as ‘the New Abnormal’, with Japan providing an early example of this approach in the 1990s, and many OECD economies following suit during the global financial crisis in 2008 and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Beenstock's central thesis is that such policies generate an ‘existential risk’ in the sense of ultimately being unsustainable and setting up future debt crises with high inflation that cannot be tamed by higher interest rates due to Sargent and Wallace's (&lt;span&gt;1981&lt;/span&gt;) ‘unpleasant monetarist arithmetic’ under which spiralling debt service costs necessitate implicit default via monetisation of nominal government debt. Beenstock also sees the ‘stay-at-home’ mitigation policy responses adopted in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic as fitting in with the ‘New Abnormal’ paradigm.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Cutting interest rates and running large budget deficits might sound to some (like me) as being fairly textbook Keynesian responses to deep recessions rather than being all that ‘abnormal’. But it is the persistent maintenance of such policies following the last two global crises, along with the unconventional nature of monetary policy at the zero lower bound, that particularly concerns Beenstock as being highly ‘unorthodox’ and dangerous. Specifically, he argues that modern macroeconomic theory misinterprets Wicksell's (&lt;span&gt;1898&lt;/span&gt;) natural rate of interest in a way that has influenced policymakers to keep interest rates too low for far too long and to rely too much on Quantitative Easing (QE) and large budget deficits without realizing the existential risks to inflation that these policies might pose.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The big mistake in Beenstock's view is that New Keynesian theory, as developed by Woodford (&lt;span&gt;2003&lt;/span&gt;) and others, defines the natural rate of interest as the level consistent with stable inflation at a target level and a zero output gap, while Beenstock prefers Patinkin's (&lt;span&gt;1966&lt;/span&gt;) interpretation of Wicksell that the natural rate is the marginal product of capital (minus depreciation) from neoclassical growth theory. Implicitly, Beenstock believes that zero interest rate policy can keep real interest rates away from this ‘neoclassical’ rate beyond the horizon over which prices are sticky, with central banks apparently somehow doing so under the ‘New Abnormal’. Based on back-of-the-envelope calculations of marginal products of capital for different countries, Beenstock's preferred estimates suggest positive neoclassical rates at the same time when estimates of long-run real rates have been negative, while inflation has remained stable at close to target levels and the output gap has also averaged close to zero.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Why, one might ask, would policymakers not see that they are holding interest rates too low for too long? Beyond Be","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 329","pages":"261-266"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12789","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Migration and Health, Edited by Sandro Galea, Catherine K. Ettman and Muhammad H. Zaman (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2022), pp. 550, DOI: https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226822495.001.0001","authors":"Alfredo R. Paloyo","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12788","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1475-4932.12788","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"100 328","pages":"117-119"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139796951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nowcasting with Google Trends","authors":"Hal Varian","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12783","url":null,"abstract":"In 2011, I delivered a keynote address titled ‘Predicting the Present with Google Trends’ at the annual meeting of the Australian Conference of Economists. Working with my colleague Hyunyoung Choi, that talk turned into a paper that was subsequently published in the June 2012 proceedings of this journal. The paper received over 3000 citations in Google Scholar. This enthusiastic reception encouraged me to continue work with my colleague Steve Scott to develop new tools and new examples which are described in this paper.","PeriodicalId":47484,"journal":{"name":"Economic Record","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139375652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}