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Exploring the role of crude oil futures in portfolio diversification 探讨原油期货在投资组合多元化中的作用
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100917
Ching-Chi Hsu , Wei-Che Tsai
{"title":"Exploring the role of crude oil futures in portfolio diversification","authors":"Ching-Chi Hsu ,&nbsp;Wei-Che Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the potential diversification benefits of including crude oil futures in global portfolios. For this purpose, we assess the relationship between crude oil futures and international stock markets across different timeframes using static network connectedness and wavelet coherency analyses. The results show that crude oil exerts a significant influence on stock markets, particularly over the 128–256 day horizon, with this effect intensifying during epidemic periods. Our wavelet-based covariance analysis guides the calculation of optimal portfolio weights, revealing that these strategies outperform equal-weighted portfolios over longer horizons. Furthermore, crude oil futures receive higher allocations during periods of low market interdependence, offering valuable insights for risk minimization and dynamic portfolio management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 100917"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank swap arrangements, exchange rate volatility, and China’s exports 央行互换安排、汇率波动和中国出口
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100915
Zhuqing Liu , Junmei Zhang
{"title":"Central bank swap arrangements, exchange rate volatility, and China’s exports","authors":"Zhuqing Liu ,&nbsp;Junmei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of bilateral currency swap arrangements (BSAs) implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) on China’s export from the perspective of stabilizing exchange rate volatility, utilizing annual trade data from 2009 to 2019. We find a significant positive effect of BSAs on China’s exports to the countries that have signed BSAs by stabilizing bilateral exchange rate volatility. The PBoC’S BSAs can reduce currency exchange costs, accelerate the RMB internationalization and enhance international market confidence in the RMB. The heterogeneity analysis further demonstrates stronger treatment effects among: (1) non-Belt and Road Initiative participants, (2) APEC member states, (3) developing economies, and (4) countries without a floating exchange rate regime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 100915"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144272097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Temporal dynamics of uncertainty shocks on China's trade openness: A TVP-VAR estimation 不确定性冲击对中国贸易开放的时间动态影响：tpv - var估计
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100916
Petros Golitsis , Kyriakos Emmanouilidis
{"title":"Temporal dynamics of uncertainty shocks on China's trade openness: A TVP-VAR estimation","authors":"Petros Golitsis ,&nbsp;Kyriakos Emmanouilidis","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of multiple uncertainty factors on China's trade openness from 1997 to 2023. Employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, we analyze how geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, trade policy uncertainties, and climate policy uncertainties affect China's export-to-import ratio over different time horizons. The analysis incorporates both global and China-specific uncertainty indices to capture domestic and international dimensions. Our results indicate that uncertainty shocks exhibit their strongest effects in the first quarter following the shock, with impacts diminishing but remaining significant over longer horizons. The time-varying impulse response functions reveal differential effects across various economic periods, including notable responses following major economic events such as the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Eurozone debt crisis. We find that climate policy developments coincide with observable shifts in trade patterns<strong>,</strong> which could be associated with changes in environmental technology sectors. These findings have implications for understanding how trade flows respond to various shocks in an increasingly complex global economic environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 100916"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ETF connectedness and its applications: Evidence from RCEP member countries ETF连通性及其应用：来自RCEP成员国的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100908
Zhenyang Li , Yuanying Jiang
{"title":"ETF connectedness and its applications: Evidence from RCEP member countries","authors":"Zhenyang Li ,&nbsp;Yuanying Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100908","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100908","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates market linkages among the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), focusing on Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) as a cross-market investment tool. Using daily ETF data from March 31, 2011, to October 1, 2024, we apply the GJR-BEKK-GARCH model and the time-varying frequency connectedness method to analyze ETF connectedness among RCEP member countries from both time-frequency and return-volatility perspectives. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in ETFs' returns and volatilities, with connectedness showing clear time-varying patterns. During economic events, risk transmission mechanisms vary, with RCEP markets showing heightened sensitivity to global shocks. Dynamic analysis of return and volatility connectedness uncovers market linkage relationships at different stages. Portfolio optimization further suggests that multi-asset ETF portfolios exhibit varying risk diversification effects under different strategies, providing valuable insights for asset allocation and risk management in a globalized market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 100908"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144130945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How did banks react to SVB collapse? 银行对瑞典对外银行的倒闭有何反应？
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100900
Anis Samet , Kimberly C. Gleason , Feras M. Salama , Xi Ye
{"title":"How did banks react to SVB collapse?","authors":"Anis Samet ,&nbsp;Kimberly C. Gleason ,&nbsp;Feras M. Salama ,&nbsp;Xi Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study is the first to comprehensively investigates the stock market repercussions of the SVB collapse for a sample of 528 individual bank stocks across 35 countries. Using event-study methodology, we find that the resilience of banks during the SVB collapse is intricately linked to their capital adequacy and liquidity. Specifically, banks exhibiting higher capital adequacy and greater liquidity mitigate losses during the SVB collapse, while controlling for bank-level and country-level variables. Further, we find that emerging markets banks exhibited significantly lower stock price declines upon announcement of the SVB failure than their counterparts in developed countries, indicating higher resilience to crisis for banks in emerging markets. This study offers a further understanding of the importance of capital adequacy and liquidity in shaping banks’ resilience to banking sector crises, such as the SVB collapse, and provides implications for policymakers seeking to enact policies designed to reduce bank vulnerability to external shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 100900"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is the relationship between financial globalization and financial stability heterogeneous? Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies 金融全球化与金融稳定的关系是异质性的吗？来自新兴市场和发展中经济体的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100899
Sunny Kumar Singh , Salva
{"title":"Is the relationship between financial globalization and financial stability heterogeneous? Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies","authors":"Sunny Kumar Singh ,&nbsp;Salva","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the association between financial stability and financial globalization for 59 emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs) from 2000 to 2019. Our findings from the baseline model reveal that the relationship between financial stability and financial globalization varies, depending on dimensions of financial globalization (overall, <em>de facto</em>, <em>de jure</em>) and financial stability. The relationship shows nonlinear and heterogeneous patterns across quantiles of financial stability, characterized by well-defined extreme points within the data range. Specifically, by employing panel quantile regression technique, we find that financially unstable countries (lower quantiles of financial stability) exhibit a U-shaped relationship between dimensions of financial globalization and financial stability. In comparison, an inverted U-shaped relationship appears for financially stable countries. Further, we find that countries with weak institutional and financial development exhibit U-shaped relations, experiencing initial instability followed by stability. Conversely, financial stability initially improves for countries with strong institutional and financial development but declines as integration deepens. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening institutions to harness the benefits of financial globalization while mitigating associated risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 100899"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Technical indicators and aggregate stock returns: An updated look 技术指标和总股票回报：最新的看法
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100898
Qi Shi
{"title":"Technical indicators and aggregate stock returns: An updated look","authors":"Qi Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide updated analyses of technical indicators and aggregate stock return forecasting. We construct 105 new technical indicators as big data predictors and adopt eight advanced shrinkage methods in our forecasting analyses. Our evidence suggests that the refinements of 105 technical factors successfully overcome those of Neely et al.’s (2014) 14 technical variables to a large extent and challenge the forecasting role of Welch and Goyal's (2008) 14 popular macroeconomic variables when ENet and Lasso are used. The excellent performance of the forecasting information based on 105 technical indicators generates sufficiently high in-sample and out-of-sample <em>R</em>-squared values and economically sizable gains in forecasting the excess returns of the composite Standard &amp; Poor 500 market. The corresponding evidence remains robust to changes in the business cycle, forecasting horizons, and alternative evaluation periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 100898"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Institutional quality distance, foreign bank presence and domestic bank efficiency: Cross-country evidence 制度质量距离、外资银行存在与国内银行效率：跨国证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100897
Xiaohui Yuan
{"title":"Institutional quality distance, foreign bank presence and domestic bank efficiency: Cross-country evidence","authors":"Xiaohui Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100897","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2025.100897","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the importance of institutional environment during bank internationalization, little is known about how the institutional quality distance between host and home markets influences the impact of foreign bank presence on the host market. Using a bank-level panel dataset of 5256 banks from 2017 to 2021, this study finds that institutional quality distance helps mitigate domestic banks’ efficiency losses from foreign bank presence. Moreover, the mitigating effect of institutional quality distance is independent of whether the home countries of foreign banks are institutionally more or less developed. We further observe that the moderating role of institutional quality distance varies across the dimensions of legal, political, regulatory, and economic institutions. Overall, the findings suggest that although foreign bank presence generally hurts the local banking sector, relative institutional quality distance can provide leeway for domestic banks to build competitive advantages to better cope with competition from foreign entrants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 100897"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Event-driven changes in volatility connectedness in global forex markets 全球外汇市场波动连通性的事件驱动变化
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2025-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100896
Peter Albrecht , Evžen Kočenda
{"title":"Event-driven changes in volatility connectedness in global forex markets","authors":"Peter Albrecht ,&nbsp;Evžen Kočenda","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100896","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100896","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using novel methods, we comprehensively analyze volatility connectedness among most traded currencies using high-frequency data from 2009 to 2023. Our study presents the first empirical evidence of a statistically significant association between increases in connectedness and endogenously selected impactful events for most traded currencies. Moreover, we uncover the previously unexplored relationship between twenty-three events affecting global forex connectedness up to one business month ahead and further analyze pre-event connectedness changes. We also distinguish between the transitory and permanent impacts of events on connectedness and confirm the association of four events with a permanent shift in connectedness; two events are associated with the EU and US debt crises. We compute the portfolio weights and hedge ratios for portfolio optimization and uncover the Swiss franc and Japanese yen as the most suitable tools for managing currency risk. The effects of intra-day currency depreciation versus appreciation against the U.S. dollar differ significantly, but the extent of asymmetries declines over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 100896"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why do companies reincorporate abroad? Evidence from Europe 为什么公司要在国外重新注册？来自欧洲的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of Multinational Financial Management Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100895
Massimo Belcredi , Lara Faverzani , Andrea Signori
{"title":"Why do companies reincorporate abroad? Evidence from Europe","authors":"Massimo Belcredi ,&nbsp;Lara Faverzani ,&nbsp;Andrea Signori","doi":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We take advantage of the institutional, fiscal, and regulatory differences across European countries to investigate why firms decide to reincorporate. Reincorporations within Europe have become increasingly common over the last decade, with Italy experiencing the largest outflow of firms and the Netherlands being the preferred destination. We investigate the expansion, tax saving, and regulatory arbitrage explanations. The evidence does not support the expansion and tax saving motivations as we observe no significant changes in firms’ investments and effective tax rates. On the other hand, we find that firms reincorporate in countries with a permissive legislative approach towards the adoption of control-enhancing mechanisms, as predicted by the regulatory arbitrage explanation. This is especially the case of Italian firms reincorporating in the Netherlands as they implement a degree of separation between ownership and control that goes beyond what their country of origin would allow. We discuss the governance implications of such decision.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47268,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Multinational Financial Management","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 100895"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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