{"title":"The problem with probability","authors":"Donald W. Katzner","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2222707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2222707","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Knightian uncertainty is the circumstance in which there is not enough information available to quantitatively measure in terms of probability the uncertainty that is present. Economic decision makers usually face that kind of uncertainty when attempting to determine their best route forward into the future. But instead of confronting Knightian uncertainty head on, economists generally have assumed it away by opting instead to employ what Knight called risk as measured by probability. But there are serious questions about whether probability has the capacity to coral in a meaningful way the uncertainty many decision makers actually face, and whether its use in models of decision making provides an appropriately relevant and realistic explanation of what is going on. This paper argues that it does not by examining the meaning of the probability concept as it relates to the true uncertain environment the decision maker faces. It also suggests that the alternative measure of surprise introduced by Shackle not only returns such analyses to the more realistic realm of Knightian uncertainty, but is also a workable and suitable replacement for probability in explanations of decision making that need to account for the unpredictability of the future.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48544628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The problem(s) with representing decision processes under uncertainty","authors":"G. Skillman, Roberto Veneziani","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2222711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2222711","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Underscoring the economic significance of the Knightian distinction between risk and uncertainty, Don Katzner forcefully challenges the continued dominance of the expected utility model based on subjective probability in macroeconomic analysis and offers in its place a simple yet elegant model of decision making inspired by the pioneering work of G.L.S. Shackle. In doing so, Katzner lends support to a research program to identify a more coherent and empirically grounded theory of decision making under uncertainty. Our paper makes three contributions to this program. First, we argue that the appropriate choice of a model of individual behavior under uncertainty cannot be adjudicated merely on logical, a priori grounds, but must ultimately be based on consistency with observed behavior. There are many internally consistent models and their external conditions of validity hardly ever rely on inconceivable scenarios. Second, while Katzner’s model certainly provides a plausible foundation for understanding choice under uncertainty, we suggest that it is somewhat underdetermined. It requires further theoretical articulation to yield testable predictions which differentiate it from competing approaches. Third, we discuss recent experimental findings that may need to be addressed by any satisfactory theoretical account of decision making under uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47278122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The problem with probability: comment","authors":"Andres F. Cantillo","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2222737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2222737","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article with the title “The Problem With Probability” suggests an interesting connection between Knightian uncertainty and Shackle’s Potential Surprise Function. The paper offers additional support to the formal analysis of uncertainty proper. Nevertheless, it suffers from insufficiencies in the definitions and classifications related to the concept of probability and time. Readers can complement it with Shackle’s assessment of probability and with Cantillo’s analysis of the Potential Surprise Function as a language whose main function is to serve as a means for engendering the future.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48425282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Seismic shifts in economic theory and policy: From the Bernanke Doctrine to Modern Money Theory","authors":"Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Éric Tymoigne","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2225518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2225518","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45581990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal expansion, government debt and economic growth: a post-Keynesian perspective","authors":"Pintu Parui","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2221444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2221444","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42662097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rethinking productivity: the crucial role of demand","authors":"D. Webber, Gissell Huaccha","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2221667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2221667","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47116104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“To give additional credit to this paper”: the Lower Canada Army Bills and provisioning the state during the War of 1812","authors":"Corey Leore","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2201820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2201820","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49471746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Militarization, gender inequality, and growth: a feminist-Kaleckian model","authors":"A. Elveren","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2201823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2201823","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44059845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effectiveness and risks of expansive monetary policy under financialization","authors":"Sara Feiner Solís","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2178461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2178461","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42007136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Convergence on inflation and divergence on price control among post Keynesian pioneers: insights from Galbraith and Lerner","authors":"Alexandre Chirat, Basile Clerc","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2023.2178462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2178462","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43251820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}