Journal of Disaster Research最新文献

{"title":"Special Issue on World BOSAI Forum 2023 / IDRC 2023 in SENDAI","authors":"Fumihiko Imamura, Yuichi Ono, Daisuke Sasaki, Yuta Hara","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0487","url":null,"abstract":"The World BOSAI Forum 2023 (WBF2023), held in March 2023 in Sendai, Japan, was successfully convened as a global platform for practical discussion of disaster risk reduction issues in a free and dynamic manner, in contrast to the United Nations, where national interests collide, or academic conferences where experts gather. In particular, we aimed to disseminate the knowledge and lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) to the world and share the knowledge and lessons with Japan. We would like to take this opportunity again to express our heartfelt gratitude to all those who participated in the sessions, exhibitions, posters, and flash talk presentations, as well as to the many locals who attended the event. According to the World BOSAI Forum [1], the WBF2023 was attended by 5,412 people over 3 days, including 1,335 pre-registrants from 40 countries and regions, on-site registrants, and EXPO participants. It included 30 oral sessions, 7 conferences, 50 poster sessions, 33 flash talk presentations, and 33 exhibition booths, where tangible solutions for disaster risk reduction were discussed through dialogue among international organizations, governments, academia, the private sector, NGOs, and citizens.\u0000 At the forum, Tohoku University hosted 4 sessions and co-hosted 10 sessions, which introduced the role of Tohoku University and the International Research Institute of Disaster Science as well as their contributions to the processes of recovery and reconstruction from the 2011 GEJET.\u0000 Finally, the forum came up with recommendations for a Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework 2015–2030 (MTR SF). In May 2023, the High-Level Meeting of the General Assembly on the MTR SF was held at the United Nations Headquarters in New York [2].\u0000 The guest editors are pleased to publish this special issue in the Journal of Disaster Research, which comprises six articles sharing the research advancements presented at the WBF2023. We hope that this special issue on the WBF2023 will contribute to the literature on disaster science and further advance disaster risk reduction.\u0000 References:\u0000 [1] World BOSAI Forum, “WBF2023 Report,” 2023. https://worldBOSAIforum.com/2023/en/report/ [Accessed May 18, 2024] [2] UNDRR, “High-Level Meeting on the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework,” 2023. https://sendaiframework-mtr.undrr.org/high-level-meeting-midterm-review-sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030 [Accessed May 18, 2024]","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141232690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling and Questionnaire Survey for Effective Regulated Egress Based on Level of Discomfort","authors":"Riku Miyagawa, D. Yanagisawa, Xiaolu Jia, Yasushi Shoji, Tetsuya Aikoh, K. Nishinari","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0279","url":null,"abstract":"Regulated egress is often conducted after large events to avoid extreme congestion at stations around event venues. In regulated egress, people are divided into several groups and egress in order. By controlling the number of groups and the time interval between each group’s egress, managers can mitigate the congestion at the stations. In this study, a mathematical model was developed to identify the effective regulated egress. level of discomfort (LOD) was used to evaluate the performance of the regulated egress instead of the total egress time. LOD is the product of the function of density and duration of egress and represents the accumulated discomfort through the egress. A questionnaire survey was conducted to determine the LOD function parameters. Under the assumed conditions, the results of the calibrated model indicated that effective regulated egress could be conducted by dividing the people into two or three groups, which is presumable in terms of management in the real world. In addition to the main result for the effective number of groups, the robustness of the model was confirmed by comparing the results of the two types of LOD functions. In other words, the effective number of groups does not strongly depend on the detailed form of the LOD functions.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140353228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative Study of Radiation Mapping Technologies for Nuclear Disaster Assessment","authors":"Kotaro Ochi, Evelyne Barker, Shigeo Nakama, Marc Gleizes, Erwan Manach, Vincent Faure, Y. Sanada","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0429","url":null,"abstract":"The distribution of the ambient dose equivalent rate (i.e., air dose rate) after a nuclear disaster is crucial for zoning contaminated areas to facilitate authorities’ effective decision making. Several countries are considering a gradual characterization strategy where airborne measurement is performed first followed by ground measurement (i.e., via manborne or carborne surveys). Nonetheless, potential differences might emerge in country-specific air dose rate assessment methods. Explaining these discrepancies can improve and converge existing methodologies. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), which are organizations involved in post-nuclear accident crisis management, jointly performed air dose rate measurements in 2019 at contaminated sites around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The similarities and differences between the two organizations’ methods and results were quantitatively assessed by comparing the average air dose rates obtained within a grid created with a geographic information system, and the reasons for the differences between the organizations’ results were investigated. The air dose rates obtained by the manborne measurements varied depending on the calibration method. Comparing the air dose rate assessment methods and mapping techniques used in different countries will contribute to developing international guidelines for recommending the best method for determining air dose rates.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140353374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Congestion Levels on a Mesoscopic Scale During Outdoor Events","authors":"Sakura Tanida, Claudio Feliciani, Xiaolu Jia, Hyerin Kim, Tetsuya Aikoh, K. Nishinari","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0347","url":null,"abstract":"In event management, preventing excessive overcrowding is not only essential for providing comfort but also crucial for ensuring safety. However, understanding the crowd dynamics of participants in outdoor events can be challenging. One of the primary reasons is the limited availability of sensing systems suitable for outdoor use. Challenges include the need for power outlets and adapting to dynamic environmental conditions and unclear event boundaries. Consequently, there is still uncertainty about which measurements can be conducted to scientifically manage crowding based on sound principles. Therefore, there is a need for systems that are capable of discerning spatial and temporal heterogeneity in density and accurately estimating the number of people in regions of interest in both sparse and congested areas. In this study, we propose a novel approach for measuring and understanding crowd states at outdoor events. We designed a highly portable measurement system utilizing Bluetooth technology to monitor crowd density in real time, ensuring uninterrupted data collection even in remote event locations. This system stands out for its ability to operate effectively under diverse weather and lighting conditions without power outlets, making it highly adaptable to various outdoor settings. In our experiments, conducted at four distinct outdoor event locations, we used a 360° camera and LiDARs to validate the system. For instance, we deployed the system at 40-m intervals in a shopping district during a high-density parade. This deployment enabled us to capture the movement of the crowd and estimate the total number of people within the district. A key finding was the system’s capability to detect temporal and spatial congestion in both sparse and crowded areas. The system’s potential to estimate crowd sizes and manage diverse outdoor events marks an advancement over traditional methods like cameras and LiDARs.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140352718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SBAA: Simulation-Based Agile Approach to Crowd Control Planning","authors":"Masako Inoue, Kazutaka Kimura, Atsushi Yamauchi","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0256","url":null,"abstract":"To prevent crowd incidents, it is important to share information among stakeholders from the planning stage of crowd management. However, numerous stakeholders are typically involved in crowd management for events, and it is difficult for each stakeholder to understand and agree on their goals, roles, responsibilities, and plans. Additionally, given the vast number of scenarios, it is also difficult to consolidate plans in an efficient and effective manner. Therefore, we devised the simulation-based agile approach (SBAA) methodology, which is characterized by “collaboration with stakeholders,” “responding to plan changes,” and “identifying quality requirements for operations through iterative proposals and agreements.” The first two characteristics are consistent with the Agile Manifesto, which has proven successful as a software development methodology. We participated in the creating of a crowd control plan for a local fireworks display and put SBAA into practice. The SBAA methodology and the effectiveness of SBAA in practice are discussed herein.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140355628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a Real-Time Crowd Flow Prediction and Visualization Platform for Crowd Management","authors":"K. Yasufuku, Akira Takahashi","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0248","url":null,"abstract":"Crowd management at large-scale events and specific facilities is a critical issue from the perspectives of safety and service quality improvement. Traditional methods for crowd management often rely on empirical knowledge, which has limitations in quickly grasping the on-site situation and making decisions on the spot. In this study, we developed a real-time crowd flow prediction and visualization platform incorporating an agent-based crowd simulation and an advanced crowd management system called crowd management platform as a service. In a case study focused on the area around the Tokyo Dome, we demonstrated that capturing pedestrian flow allows for accurate predictions of congestion at the nearest train station up to 10 min in advance. Moreover, the time required to predict the situation 20 min ahead for 3,000 agents was 1 min and 35 s, confirming the feasibility of real-time processing. To enhance the accuracy and reliability of the simulation results, a sensitivity analysis considering errors in pedestrian flow measurement revealed that simple linear models cannot capture the complexity of crowd dynamics adequately. Notably, the agent-based simulation replicated stop-and-go wave patterns observed in actual measurements under specific crowd conditions, confirming the advantage of using agent-based simulations. Finally, we proposed a method that enables facility managers and security personnel to conduct a more comprehensive evaluation. This method integrates their existing experience with the aggregated display of multiple simulation results, which includes consideration of errors in pedestrian flow measurement through a visualization platform.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140355042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating Visitors’ Perceptions and Behaviors in a Crowded Situation at a Large-Scale Exhibition","authors":"Hyerin Kim, Claudio Feliciani, Sakura Tanida, Xiaolu Jia, Tetsuya Aikoh, Yasushi Shoji, K. Nishinari","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0370","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how visitors respond to crowding is crucial for ensuring the success, safety, and overall enjoyment of large-scale exhibitions. However, despite its significance, limited research has explored this issue. To address this gap, we conducted a questionnaire survey in 2022 and 2023 for visitors to exhibitions held at the Tokyo Big Sight Convention Center. Our research aims to explore the level of consistency between perceived and actual crowding, levels of discomfort in crowded situations, tolerance levels for crowding, and behaviors to avoid crowded situations. The results revealed significant changes in visitor perceptions across the two-year period. Notably, the acceptable crowd density in 2023 increased by 13% compared to 2022. This change in level of tolerance for crowding might have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and other contextual factors that altered visitors’ perceptions toward crowding. Interestingly, despite these perceptual changes, behaviors to avoid crowded situations remained consistent across both years. The most common response was that no special action was taken to avoid crowded situations. These findings underscore that perceptions and behaviors related to crowding in the context of large-scale exhibitions are not uniform. Our findings offer several implications and insights for crowd management, which event organizers can use to devise strategies aimed at enhancing visitors’ experiences and effectively managing crowding in large-scale exhibitions.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140353093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the Effects of Regulating In-Person University Lectures on the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Michinao Okachi, Haewon Youn","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0446","url":null,"abstract":"Universities were the only educational institutions that restricted in-person lectures during the prolonged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study is the first attempt to estimate the effects of restricting in-person lectures on containing the spread of COVID-19. Our investigation was conducted on Japanese universities since their various lecture styles are suitable for our analysis. A multiple-event study negative binomial regression model was employed, and the results showed that restricting the ratio of in-person lectures had limited effects on decreasing COVID-19 infections among university students. For example, if universities restrict almost all in-person lecture from a rate of over half of in-person lectures, the number of student infections would decline by 5.5 per 10,000 students between seven weeks before and after the change. Other lecture style changes had even smaller differences. In addition, we estimated the effect of the start of long breaks on the number of infections and found that they lead to a relatively higher level of infections regardless of lecture styles at the end of semesters. This implies that students are more likely to be infected outside than in class.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140353813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Visualization and Analysis of Visitor Trajectories and Stops in Indoor Exhibition Facilities","authors":"Takashi Chiba","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0408","url":null,"abstract":"We used LiDAR to detect and track people in an exhibition facility for better crowd management. The results were treated as time series data and visualized using a web application. In addition, we verified visitors’ stopping points to quantify interest in various exhibits, and found that by checking the time visitors spent in front of exhibits in 10-second intervals, the places in the exhibition hall that interested visitors could be visualized. The results suggest that the time classified as viewing is not necessarily longer, but that a threshold that takes into account the facilities and routes within the exhibition facility should be set.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140356380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cross-Cultural Comparison of Mood Perception During Initial Pandemic Response","authors":"Karri Flinkman, Claudio Feliciani, Hwajin Lim, Hiroki Kuroha, Sae Kondo, Chikako Goto, Hideki Koizumi","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0396","url":null,"abstract":"The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been a major global event. Countless restrictions and recommendations have revealed novel insights into the everyday lives of people, which are far from uniform across cultures. In this explorative study, the mood perception of people from “individualistic” (Finland) and “collectivistic” (Japan and South Korea) cultures were studied via self-administered questionnaires at the time of major social restrictions (spring–summer of 2020) when the sociocultural effect of the pandemic was at its strongest. A simple measure of “recent mood perception” forms the core of the analysis, against which various factors were analyzed. Such coarse measures fit well with cross-cultural research, for more specific experiences typically do not translate very well between cultures. Somewhat surprisingly, almost no “constant” measures (e.g., occupation, household structure) proved to be significantly correlated with recent mood, whereas the degree of “changes” in personal situation (time spent home, number of people met, and so on, before and after the outbreak) proved to be significant factors, highlighting contextuality and mindset. Further, difference between “individualistic” and “collectivistic” cultures was also observed. These results highlight the vital importance of not only observing consistent phenomena but also recognizing changes and understanding the unique perspectives and experiences individuals have of them. Depending on the context, an objectively same thing can evoke vastly different perceptions.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140354737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}