International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management最新文献

{"title":"Drivers of climate variability and increasing water salinity impacts on the farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation","authors":"A. Khan, S. Khan, M. Ali, Aftab Khan, Y. Hayat, Jianchao Luo","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-08-2021-0092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-08-2021-0092","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The main aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change and water salinity on farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation. Salinity and climate change are a threat to agricultural productivity worldwide. However, the combined effects of climate change and salinity impacts on farmers' income are not well understood, particularly in developing countries.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The response-yield function and general maximum entropy methods were used to predict the impact of temperature, precipitation and salinity on crop yield. The target minimization of total absolute deviations (MOTAD)-positive mathematical programming model was used to simulate the impact of climate change and salinity on socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In the end, a multicriteria decision-making model was used, aiming at the selection of suitable climate scenarios.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results revealed that precipitation shows a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature and groundwater salinity (EC) illustrate a significantly increasing trend. Climate change and EC negatively impact the farmer's income and water shadow prices. Maximum reduction in income and water shadow prices was observed for A2 scenario (−12.4% and 19.4%) during 2050. The environmental index was the most important, with priority of 43.4% compared to socioeconomic indicators. Subindex amount of water used was also significant in study area, with 28.1% priority. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution ranking system found that B1 was the best climatic scenario for adopting climate change adaptation in the research region.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000In this study, farmers' income threats were assessed with the aspects of different climate scenario (A1, A1B and B1) over the horizons of 2030, 2040 and 2050 and three different indicators (economic, social and environmental) in Northwestern region of Pakistan. Only in arid and semiarid regions has climate change raised temperature and reduced rainfall, which are preliminary symptoms of growing salinity.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41395676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Can seawalls help American cities adapt to coastal flooding?”","authors":"J. Yoo, Vaishnavi Sinha, R. Mendelsohn","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-02-2022-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-02-2022-0020","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to combine information about sea level rise (SLR), the probability distribution of storm surge, a flood damage function and the value of property by elevation along the coast of selected cities to measure expected flood damage. The selected six cities all have nearby long-term tidal stations that can be used to estimate the probability distribution of floods. The model is calibrated to each city. The study then compares the cost of building higher seawalls today along the coast versus the benefit of each wall (the reduction in expected flood damage).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The combination of coastal storms and SLR has led to extensive flood damage across American cities. This study creates a simple generic model that evaluates whether seawalls would be effective at addressing this flooding problem. The paper develops an approach that readily measures the expected flood benefits and costs of alternative coastal seawalls. The approach takes account of near term SLR and the probability distribution of storm surge. The model finds seawalls are effective only in cities where many buildings are in the 25-year flood plain.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Cities with many buildings built on land below 2 m in elevation (the 25-year flood plain) have high expected flood damage from storms and SLR. Cities which already have many buildings in this flood plain would benefit from seawalls. Assuming seawalls are built above the high tide line, the optimal wall height that maximizes net benefits is between 0.9 to 1.2 m. These relatively low seawalls block 70%–83% of expected flood damage in these cities. Fair flood insurance is the least cost strategy for handling the remaining damages that overtop the optimal seawalls.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The analysis evaluates whether or not to build a seawall the length of each city at high tide lines. However, the analysis also finds several long stretches of coast in two cities where a wall is not warranted because there are few vulnerable buildings. Future analyses should consider seawalls in more spatially detailed sections of each city. Each section could then be analyzed independently. Whether or not more complex hydrodynamic models are needed to evaluate coastal resilience planning should also be explored. Alternative solutions such as planned retreat and nature-based solutions should be compared with seawalls in future studies as well.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Cities should be careful to avoid development in the 25-year flood plain because of high expected flood damage. Cities that have low elevation areas subject to frequent flooding should consider seawalls to reduce frequent flooding. Because they are very costly and have low expected benefits, high walls that can stop a one-hundred-year storm are generally not worth building.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000The analysis reveals that the most important factor determining the vulnerability of cities along the eastern coastline of the USA is the numb","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44342466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Appraisal of climate change mitigation and adaptation regulatory frameworks in Ethiopia and their congruency with the UN climate change convention","authors":"Bilate Bisare Bitire","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-03-2022-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-03-2022-0036","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to critically investigate the Ethiopia’s climate change adaptation and mitigation regulatory frameworks and their congruency with the guiding principles under the United Nations (UN) Climate Convention, to show the alignment of the regulatory frameworks with the UN Climate Change rules. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall distribution, recurrent droughts and floods require robust climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and effective implementation in the country.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Through the doctrinal legal research method, the author has used a detailed analysis of primary sources, both national and international legislative enactments. Besides, the research has benefitted from secondary sources like research reports, online publications, scientific journals, international reports, books and journal articles.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings reveal that in Ethiopia, there is no national climate change-specific policy and legislation. Although there are scattered sectoral climate-related policies and strategies, they are not consistent with the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study argues that having comprehensive specific climate change policy and legislative frameworks consistent with UNFCCC guiding principles could help to mitigate and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change in the country.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48215963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach","authors":"C. Belford, Delin Huang, Y. Ahmed, E. Ceesay, Sanyang Lang","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-01-2022-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-01-2022-0003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48683355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on the synergies between low-carbon pilot city policy and high-speed railways in improving Chinese urban electricity efficiency","authors":"Yu Chen, Di Jin, Changyi Zhao","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-07-2022-0078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-07-2022-0078","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Global climate change is a serious threat to the survival and development of mankind. Reducing carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality are the keys to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable human development. For many countries, taking China as an example, the electric power sector is the main contributor to the country’s carbon emissions, as well as a key sector for reducing carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. The low-carbon transition of the power sector is of great significance to the long-term low-carbon development of the economy. Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to improve the energy supply structure on the supply side and increase the proportion of new energy in the total power supply. On the other hand, it is necessary to improve energy utilization efficiency on the demand side and control the total primary energy consumption by improving energy efficiency, which is the most direct and effective way to reduce emissions. Improving the utilization efficiency of electric energy and realizing the low-carbon transition of the electric power industry requires synergies between the government and the market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the individual and synergistic effects of China’s low-carbon policy and the opening of urban high-speed railways (HSRs) on the urban electricity consumption efficiency, measured as electricity consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses a panel of 289 Chinese prefecture-level cities from the years 1999–2019 as the sample and uses the time-varying difference-in-difference method to test the relationship between HSR, low-carbon pilot cities and urban electricity consumption efficiency. In addition, the instrumental variable method is adopted to make a robustness check.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Empirical results show that the low-carbon pilot policy and the HSR operation in cities would reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP, and synergies occur in both HSR operated and low-carbon pilot cities.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This study has limitations that would provide possible starting points for future studies. The first limitation is the choice of the proxy variable of government and market factors. The second limitation is that the existing data is only about whether the high-speed rail is opened or not and whether it is a low-carbon pilot city, and there is no more informative data to combine the two aspects.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The findings of this study can inform policymakers and regulators about the effects of low-carbon pilot city policies. In addition, the government should consider market-level factors in addition to policy factors. Only by combining various influencing factors can the efficient use of energy be more effectively achieved so as to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000From the social perspective, the findings indicate that improv","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49599100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insurance for climate change and environmental risk: a bibliometric review","authors":"Haitham Nobanee, Mehroz Nida Dilshad, Omar Abu Lamdi, Bashaier Ballool, Saeed Al Dhaheri, Noura AlMheiri, Abdalla Alyammahi, S. Alhemeiri","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-08-2021-0097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-08-2021-0097","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the research output on climate change, environmental risks and insurance from 1986 to 2020, thereby revealing the development of the literature through collaborative networks. The relationship between insurance, climate change and environmental threats has gained research attention. This study describes the interaction between insurance, climate change and environmental risk.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study is a bibliometric analysis of the literature and assessed the current state of science. A total of 97 academic papers from top-level journals listed in the Scopus database are shortlisted.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The understanding of climate change, environmental risks and insurance is shaped and enhanced through the collaborative network maps of researchers. Their reach expands across different networks, core themes and streams, as these topics develop.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Data for this study were generated from English-written journal articles listed in the Scopus database only; subsequently, this study was representative of high-quality papers published in the areas of climate change, environmental risks and insurance.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The results of this study can be useful to academic researchers to aid their understanding of climate change, environmental risks and insurance research development, to identify the current context and to develop a future research agenda.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000The findings of this study can improve the understanding of industry practitioners about climate change and global warming challenges, and how insurance can be used as a tool to address such challenges.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is a novel attempt. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies to better understand climate change, environmental risks and insurance as a research topic by examining its evolution in an academic context through visualization, coupling and bibliometric analysis. This bibliometric study is unique in reviewing climate change literature and providing a future research agenda. Using bibliometric data, this study addressed the technical aspects and the value it adds to actual practice. Bibliometric indicators quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate emerging disciplinary progress in this topic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48870127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The evolution of electric technology in the context of China’s low-carbon transformation: a patent analysis","authors":"Ruifeng Hu, Weiqiao Xu, Yalin Yang","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-04-2022-0050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-04-2022-0050","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Owing to increased energy demands, China has become the world’s top CO2 emitter, with electricity generation accounting for the majority of emissions. Therefore, the Chinese Government aspires to achieve a low-carbon transformation of the electric industry by enhancing its green innovation capacity. However, little attention has been paid to the green development of electric technology. Thus, this paper aims to uncover the spatiotemporal evolution of electric technology in the context of China’s low-carbon transformation through patent analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Using granted green invention patent data for China’s electric industry between 2000 and 2021, this paper conducted an exploratory, spatial autocorrelation and time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) analysis to reveal the landscape of electric technology.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Exploratory analysis shows that the average growth rate of electric technology is 8.1%, with spatial heterogeneity, as there is slower growth in the north and west and faster growth in the south and east. In addition, electric technology shows spatial clustering in local areas. Finally, the time-varying DID analysis provides positive evidence that low-carbon policies improve the green innovation capacity of electric technology.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The different effects of the low-carbon pilot policy (LCPC) on R&D subjects and the LCPC’s effectiveness in enhancing the value of patented technology were not revealed.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper reveals the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of electric technology in mainland China. The results can help the Chinese Government clarify how to carry out innovative development in the electric industry as part of the low-carbon transformation and provide a theoretical basis and research direction for newcomers in this field.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47425769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Could green finance facilitate low-carbon transformation of power generation? Some evidence from China","authors":"Ziqiang Lin, X. Liao, Haoran Jia","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-03-2022-0039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-03-2022-0039","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The decarbonization of power generation is key to achieving carbon neutrality in China by the end of 2060. This paper aims to examine how green finance influences China’s low-carbon transition of power generation. Using a provincial panel data set as an empirical study example, green finance is assessed first, then empirically analyses the influences of green finance on the low-carbon transition of power generation, as well as intermediary mechanisms at play. Finally, this paper makes relevant recommendations for peak carbon and carbon neutrality in China.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To begin with, an evaluation index system with five indicators is constructed with entropy weighting method. Second, this paper uses the share of coal-fired power generation that takes in total power generation as an inverse indicator to measure the low-carbon transition in power generation. Finally, the authors perform generalized method of moments (GMM) econometric model to examine how green finance influences China’s low-carbon transition of power generation by taking advantage of 30 provincial panel data sets, spanning the period of 2007–2019. Meanwhile, the implementation of the 2016 Guidance on Green Finance is used as a turning point to address endogeneity using difference-in-difference method (DID).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The prosperity of green finance can markedly reduce the share of thermal power generation in total electricity generation, which implies a trend toward China’s low-carbon transformation in the power generation industry. Urbanization and R&D investment are driving forces influencing low-carbon transition, while economic development hinders the low-carbon transition. The conclusions remain robust after a series of tests such as the DID method, instrumental variable method and replacement indicators. Notably, the results of the mechanism analysis suggest that green finance contributes to low-carbon transformation in power generation by reducing secondary sectoral share, reducing the production of export products, promoting the advancement of green technologies and expanding the proportion of new installed capacity of renewable energy.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This paper puts forward relevant suggestions for promoting the green finance development with countermeasures such as allowing low interest rate for renewable energy power generation, facilitating market function and using carbon trade market. Additional policy implication is to promote high quality urbanization and increase R&D investment while pursuing high quality economic development. The last implication is to develop mechanism to strengthen the transformation of industrial structure, to promote high quality trade from high carbon manufactured products to low-carbon products, to stimulate more investment in green technology innovation and to accelerate the greening of installed structure in power generation industry.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper first attempts to examine t","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49019856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on temperature mean and precipitation extremes indices in Africa","authors":"Salomon Obahoundje, Vami Hermann N’guessan Bi, A. Diedhiou, B. Kravitz, J. Moore","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-03-2021-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-03-2021-0028","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models involved in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Inter-comparison Project (GeoMIP) project were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on the mean surface air temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This impact was examined under G4 and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenarios on the total precipitation, the number of rainy days (RR1) and of days with heavy rainfall (R20 mm), the rainfall intensity (SDII), the maximum length of consecutive wet (CWD) and dry (CDD) days and on the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (Rx5day) across four regions: Western Africa (WAF), Eastern Africa (EAF), Northern Africa and Southern Africa (SAF).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000During the 50 years (2020–2069) of SAI, mean continental warming is −0.40°C lower in G4 than under RCP4.5. During the post-injection period (2070–2090), the temperature continues to increase, but at a lower rate (−0.19°C) than in RCP4.5. During SAI, annual rainfall in G4 is significantly greater than in RCP4.5 over the high latitudes (especially over SAF) and lower over the tropics. The termination of SAI leads to a significant increase of rainfall over Sahel and EAF and a decrease over SAF and Guinea Coast (WAF).\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Compared to RCP4.5, SAI will contribute to reducing significantly regional warming but with a significant decrease of rainfall in the tropics where rainfed agriculture account for a large part of the economies. After the SAI period, the risk of drought over the extratropical regions (especially in SAF) will be mitigated, while the risk of floods will be exacerbated in the Central Sahel.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To meet the Paris Agreement, African countries will implement mitigation measures to contribute to keep the surface air temperature below 2°C. Geoengineering with SAI is suggested as an option to meet this challenge, but its implication on the African climate system needs a deep investigation in the aim to understand the impacts on temperature and precipitation extremes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the potential impact of SAI using the G4 experiment of GeoMIP on temperature and precipitation extremes of the African continent.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45351830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and its impact on rice acreage in high-latitude regions of China: an estimation by machine learning","authors":"Yan Yu, Qingsong Tian, Fengxian Yan","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-11-2020-0124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-11-2020-0124","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Fewer researchers have investigated the climatic and economic drivers of land-use change simultaneously and the interplay between drivers. This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear and interaction effects of price and climate variables on the rice acreage in high-latitude regions of China.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study applies a multivariate adaptive regression spline to characterize the effects of price and climate expectations on rice acreage in high-latitude regions of China from 1992 to 2017. Then, yield expectation is added into the model to investigate the mechanism of climate effects on rice area allocation.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results of importance assessment suggest that rice price, climate and total agricultural area play an important role in rice area allocation, and the importance of temperature is always higher than that of precipitation, especially for minimum temperature. Based on the estimated hinge functions and coefficients, it is found that total agricultural area has strong nonlinear and interaction effects with climate and price as forms of third-order interaction. However, the order of interaction terms reduces to second order after absorbing the expected yield. Additionally, the marginal effects of driven factors are calculated at different quantiles. The total area shows a positive and increasing marginal effect with the increase of total area. But the positive impact of price on the rice area can only be observed when price reached 50% or higher quantiles. Climate variables also show strong nonlinear marginal effects, and most climatic effects would disappear or be weakened once absorbing the expected rice yield. Expected yield is an efficient mechanism to explain the correlation between crop area and climate variables, but the impact of minimum temperature cannot be completely modeled by the yield expectation.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the nonlinear response of land-use change to climate and economic in high-latitude regions of China using the machine learning method.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62568208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}