Florian van Daalen, Ralph Brecheisen, Leonard Wee, Andre Dekker, Inigo Bermejo
{"title":"Multinomial Classification Certainty: a new uncertainty metric for multinomial outcome prediction.","authors":"Florian van Daalen, Ralph Brecheisen, Leonard Wee, Andre Dekker, Inigo Bermejo","doi":"10.1007/s13748-025-00404-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13748-025-00404-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Certainty of classifications is crucial when it comes to the practical application of machine learning models. Model performance measures such as accuracy are focused on the average performance of a model. However, when a model is used in a practical setting, such as a medical clinic, it is more important to know how certain the model is of a given prediction or classification than its average performance. Unfortunately, often models only provide a final classification label, usually of the class with the highest probability. This output, however, is not sufficiently informative of the certainty of this particular classification, especially in the presence of multiple classes: the highest probability might be only barely higher than the second highest. Even when a probability distribution is provided, there is no established metric to determine if a particular classification is more certain than a different one. In this article we propose a novel metric we have termed Multinomial Classification Certainty, to represent the certainty of model predictions. We discuss why existing methods cannot represent this type of certainty and we show the mathematical meaning behind important thresholds for this new measure.</p>","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"15 2","pages":"259-271"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13308692/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148346903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ant lion optimization in deep neural network for forecasting the rice crop yield based on soil nutrients","authors":"Rajesh Kumar Dhanaraj, M. Chandraprabha","doi":"10.1007/s13748-024-00351-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-024-00351-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"14 1","pages":"101-116"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147918056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An improved pathfinder algorithm (ASDR-PFA) based on adaptation of search dimensional ratio for solving global optimization problems and optimal feature selection","authors":"Ajit Kumar Mahapatra, Nibedan Panda, Binod Kumar Pattanayak","doi":"10.1007/s13748-023-00306-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-023-00306-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136309053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A survey on emotion–cause extraction in psychological text using deep learning methods","authors":"Anshul Kumar, Ankit Kumar Jain","doi":"10.1007/s13748-023-00305-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-023-00305-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135826404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sumaiya Pathan, Preetham Kumar, R. Pai, S. Bhandary
{"title":"An automated classification framework for glaucoma detection in fundus images using ensemble of dynamic selection methods","authors":"Sumaiya Pathan, Preetham Kumar, R. Pai, S. Bhandary","doi":"10.1007/s13748-023-00304-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-023-00304-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"12 1","pages":"287 - 301"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42700287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Two decades of agent-based modeling in marketing: a bibliometric analysis","authors":"Elena Romero, M. Chica, S. Damas, W. Rand","doi":"10.1007/s13748-023-00303-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-023-00303-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"12 1","pages":"213 - 229"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41621572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Learning to summarize multi-documents with local and global information","authors":"Van-Hau Nguyen, S. T. Mai, Minh-Tien Nguyen","doi":"10.1007/s13748-023-00302-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-023-00302-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"12 1","pages":"275 - 286"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46509012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abdullah Alzaqebah, Omar Sultan Al-Kadi, Ibrahim Aljarah
{"title":"An enhanced Harris hawk optimizer based on extreme learning machine for feature selection","authors":"Abdullah Alzaqebah, Omar Sultan Al-Kadi, Ibrahim Aljarah","doi":"10.1007/s13748-023-00298-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13748-023-00298-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46027,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Artificial Intelligence","volume":"12 1","pages":"77 - 97"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45009120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}