Strategic Analysis最新文献

{"title":"The Future of Energy Consumption, Security and Natural Gas: LNG in Baltic Sea Region","authors":"Pramod Kumar","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2115230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115230","url":null,"abstract":"E nergy transition is defined as a structural change in energy balance when some fuels are replaced with others. This process of structural transition, however, does not lead to an ultimate replacement of fuel but a substantial reduction of its share. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is widely considered a transition fuel that will eventually lead to a shift to the renewable energy system. LNG provides an alternative to coal, oil, nuclear energy and pipeline gas, as it helps reduce carbon emissions. However, the LNG supply chain, including liquefaction, storage, transportations via LNG tankers, and re-gasification, is associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in additional LNG emissions compared to pipeline gas. The global LNG market has witnessed exponential growth since 2000. LNG trade and export at the international level have almost tripled between 2000 and 2020. Similarly, the oversupply of LNG, improvement in energy infrastructure, flexible supply contracts, and relatively low price, determines the development of LNG in the global market. Karl Liuhto’s edited volume The Future of Energy Consumption, Security and Natural Gas: LNG in Baltic States focuses on the development of LNG market globally with an emphasis on the Baltic Sea region, and assesses the linkages between the supply security and LNG market. Comprising twelve chapters, the book analyses recent developments (post-2000) in the LNG market in countries of the Baltic Sea region. Moreover, the book discusses how LNG helped Baltic Sea countries strengthen energy security. The evolving LNG market has experienced enormous competition among major suppliers including Qatar, Australia, the US, Russia and Malaysia due to the increase of production and supply of natural gas with proliferation of LNG exports and gas pipelines. For example, the Ukrainian crisis is perceived as competition over the energy market between the US (major LNG exporter) and Russia (hegemony over gas pipeline export). The crux of this volume is that as several long-term gas pipeline contracts expire within a decade, the LNG market may continue to flourish. The book highlights the overall development of the LNG market, and the increasing share of imported LNG in the European Union (EU), which has increased from 10 to 20 per cent in two decades since 2000, although the imports are not evenly distributed. For example, countries such as Germany, Austria, Czech Strategic Analysis, 2022 Vol. 46, No. 5, 553–554, https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115230","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"553 - 554"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46733045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Analysis of the Post-370 Revocation Trends in Kashmir: Issues and Concerns","authors":"Abhinav Pandya","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2120753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2120753","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article is an exploratory study of social, political, economic, governance, and militancy-related trends in the Kashmir region after the abrogation of Article 370 (5 August 2019), i.e., Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, and based on that, makes a strategic forecast about the overall security situation in Kashmir. However, the period of two years and ten months is not sufficient to undertake a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the impact of abrogating Article 370 in the aforementioned domains; hence this article limits its scope to an analytical review of the developments in the last two-and-a-half years.","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"510 - 541"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45734151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eastwards Ho? India’s Relations with the Indo-Pacific","authors":"A. Sahu","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2115233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115233","url":null,"abstract":"E astwards Ho? India’s Relations with the Indo-Pacific edited by E. Sridharan comprising 15 essays by renowned experts on Asian geopolitics, seeks to place India on the strategic map of the evolving Indo-Pacific region as an economic and geopolitical power. At the outset, the editor provides a succinct overview of economic integration in Asia, particularly of China with its neighbours reflected in a massive increase in bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). He points out that despite the absence of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)like security umbrella, East Asian countries have managed to strengthen intraregional economic integration (p. 6). China’s actions have been belligerent but Asian countries do not stand decoupled from China in terms of their economy. In fact, one may argue that NATO-like military alliances do more harm than good. Especially as Russia’s primary contention has apparently been over NATO’s expansion in Europe, leading to the Ukraine crisis. In relation to India’s diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, Sridharan suggests enlargement of the Indian Foreign Service, strengthening ties between government, academia and think tanks, boosting Diaspora linkages, and increasing institutionalized involvement of India’s states in foreign policy (p. 15). The book explores the Asian security architecture and India’s endeavour to play a larger role in it, given the ongoing fundamental shifts in global and regional balance of power. The Indo-Pacific is replete with multilateral fora, mainly ASEAN-led institutions like the East Asia Summit, which have adequate representation, including China. This has led to a web of overlapping multilateral organizations allowing participation of multiple stakeholders. India’s role, hence, will increasingly become more important based on the multilateral or ‘minilateral’ institutions it helps forge, and how it participates and shapes their agenda in pursuance of its national interest. Srikanth Kondapalli argues that economic interdependencies are not enough to influence India’s and China’s security policies. China’s increasing economic and diplomatic outreach in South Asia will compel New Delhi to invest resources for maintaining its predominant position in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and transform its diplomatic approach towards South Asian neighbours. India may approach development of borderlands with renewed focus, and efforts to radically increase economic and people-to-people exchanges with the neighbouring countries. Strategic Analysis, 2022 Vol. 46, No. 5, 545–547, https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115233","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"545 - 547"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44141244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sufi-Barelvis, Blasphemy and Radicalization: A Critical Analysis","authors":"Pradeep Gautam","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2115237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115237","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There is a trend of upsurge in radicalisation of Sufi-Barelvis and violence resorted to by them, particularly in Pakistan, based on their uncompromising stance on the issue of blasphemy. Apart from its roots in various socio-political factors, strong emphasis on veneration of Prophet Muhammad makes Sufi-Barelvis extremely sensitive to any allegation of blasphemy. From print-media and Urdu press to social media and internet, the revolutionisation of the medium of communication in recent times has also played a key role in this radicalisation. Such interplay of ideology and technology is catalysing the twin processes of mobilisation and radicalisation.","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"459 - 472"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43756471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"(Re-)Narrating the Evolution of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation: China’s Diplomacy Behind the Scenes","authors":"Kornphanat Tungkeunkunt, P. Bunyavejchewin","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2136196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2136196","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The launch of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) opened a fresh chapter in international politics in the Mekong region, by marking China’s official entry into the continental Southeast Asian arena. However, little is known about the LMC’s evolution. By extensively relying on the recently opened Archives in Bangkok, this article illuminates facts and narrates the LMC’s formation, with special emphasis on the Chinese perspective. It argues that, similar to Chinese-led regional multilaterals elsewhere, the LMC is a spoke of the continent-wide Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and functions as a mini-BRI architecture in the Mekong region.","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"494 - 509"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46031580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dispatches from the South China Sea: Navigating to Common Ground","authors":"Mrityunjaya Dubey","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2115232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115232","url":null,"abstract":"J ames Borton in Dispatches from the South China Sea primarily dwells on the interactions between humans and the environment in the South China Sea. Through his journalistic acumen, Borton intricately embarks upon anthropogenic catastrophes such as coral reef destruction, overfishing, illegal annihilation of sovereign territories, evolving environmental refugee crisis (both forced and motivated environmental migration), over-exploitation of resources by China to mention a few. Therein, Borton dwells on the failures of regional governments (past and present), civil societies, non-government organizations (NGOs), and multinational bodies under the UN. The principle argument underpins how these various stakeholders, driven by their ‘altruistic’ motives and visions, often are the culprits of their own ‘perverted’ visions in praxis. Given the bone-chilling effects of climate change and environmental degradation that every individual living under the sun is experiencing today, makes Borton’s efforts more exemplary, particularly through the Vietnamese case study. The book raises some pertinent questions about the implementation and policies by governments across the global North and South. A key question raised in the book is, do countries in the broader Indo-Pacific region have any multilateral legal instrument in place amidst unbridled Chinese influence to address the question of environmental degradation? And linked to it, is the question of an alternative global environment governance. Further, the book outlines the maritime conflicts emanating from Chinese activities in the South China Sea that can pose an ‘existential threat’ for regional countries in the Indo-Pacific. The current entanglement, rather, stiff tensions which are evident between the US and China on technological, spatial, environmental, economic, social, political and cultural fronts, can only be dealt with an intense, renewed and conscious international collaboration. Borton lays emphasis on letting humanity and science be the guiding force for international collaborations. However, such an approach might only suit the policy-making apparatus of the US. Thus, amidst the ever-evolving geopolitical and geo-economic dynamism in the broader Indo-Pacific, the suggested approach seems only to cater to US and Chinese mutual interests rather than an encompassing thrust towards the global commons. This is likely to incur a backlash, and raise significant questions concerning the North-South divide. However, Borton’s bold gesture of impinging on China’s varied illicit activities in the South China Sea region outlines the current Strategic Analysis, 2022 Vol. 46, No. 5, 551–552, https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115232","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"551 - 552"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48647729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balochistan: In the Crosshairs of History","authors":"Saman Ayesha Kidwai","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2115231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115231","url":null,"abstract":"B alochistan is one of the most restive areas in Pakistan that has endured systematic and extraordinary suppression at the hands of the Pakistani State and its security forces. The Baloch form a distinct ethno-national identity, and dream of creating a Baloch nation-state, but this runs contrary to the overarching Pakistani identity and State, attracting their fury. The Baloch have struggled for decades for international recognition of their plight but have hardly received any support. It is not only political apathy but the lack of academic attention on the plight of the Baloch people, their struggles, history, identity and culture that has hurt the Baloch cause. Sandhya Jain through her meticulous and well-researched book has attempted to fill this gap by chronicling the history, culture and the struggle of the Baloch people of Pakistan. She takes a long view of the Baloch problem in locating it to the political churn witnessed in the subcontinent during the independence struggle that eventually led to Partition in 1947 with India and Pakistan emerging as two independent States. The author has argued that Balochistan’s fate was primarily sealed by the great game between then Great Britain and Tsarist Russia and the ideological confrontation ensuing after the Second World War. She has underscored how power struggles and Mir Ahmad Yar Khan Ahmadzai’s—the Khan of Kalat’s—decapitated leadership resulted in its annexation by Pakistan. Finally, the availability of natural resources, central to the sustenance of the Pakistani State, sounded the death-knell for any hope for carving a Baloch ethno-national State. However, how the British duplicities are portrayed gives the impression that it was the exception and not the norm. Instead, as historical events highlight, such ruthless realpolitik strategies remained central to the colonial power’s agenda across its vast empire. The introductory chapter could have benefitted by briefly drawing parallels with the British colonial practice of promising more than what it could deliver to many ethnic, tribal, regional and religious leaders, and who continue to suffer, such as the Kurds or Palestinians, as they did with the Khan of Kalat. The book should also have, at the outset, underlined that India’s resistance to any further exploitation, militarily and politically in the post-independence era, of its land and resources to advance and preserve British interests as a proxy State, inevitably pushed the latter to ensure Kalat’s annexation in 1948 to the newly-formed Pakistan. Strategic Analysis, 2022 Vol. 46, No. 5, 548–550, https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115231","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"548 - 550"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43773337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ordering Violence: Explaining Armed Group-State Relations from Conflict to Cooperation","authors":"Alex Waterman","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2115229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115229","url":null,"abstract":"I n 2022, the ceasefire between the Government of India and the National Socialist Council of Nagalim–Isak-Muivah (NSCN–IM) entered its 25 year. While the ceasefire has greatly reduced violence between the group and security forces, it has by no means ended it. Despite recent moves to reduce the coverage of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), the region remains heavily militarized; during times of tension in the peace talks, a game of ‘cat and mouse’ ensues between NSCN–IM militants, keen to consolidate their local influence, and Indian security forces seeking to contain the group. Occasionally, this boils over into armed clashes and fatalities, but is generally capped and managed ‘within tolerable limits’. What gives rise to murky no-war, no-peace scenarios such as these? Paul Staniland, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, seeks to address this question in Ordering Violence: Explaining Armed Group-State Relations from Conflict to Cooperation. Consolidating nearly a decade of both his own work on state-armed group relations and the broader ‘order turn’ in civil wars research, Ordering Violence’s central argument is that states’ ideological projects— interacting with tactical considerations—shape whether states enter into relations of alliance, limited cooperation, containment and total war with armed groups. While Staniland first introduced these four forms of ‘armed order’ in 2017, Ordering Violence adds theoretical and empirical depth to this research agenda and in doing so, makes an important and novel contribution to the study of conflict dynamics both in South Asia and beyond. According to the book’s central hypothesis, which is introduced in the first two chapters, States’ perceptions of armed groups vary broadly across two axes. Depending on a State’s ideological preferences, an armed group may be broadly ‘aligned’, ‘opposed’, or may fall somewhere within an ideological ‘grey zone’, while tactical overlap varies from ‘low’ to ‘high’. Combinations of these are theorized through a typology of both armed orders and armed group political roles across a spectrum of conflict and cooperation. Armed allies and mortal enemies sit at either end of this spectrum, but more interesting are those who sit between, such as ‘business partners’ or ‘strange bedfellows’ with middling or low ideological fit, but strong tactical overlaps (p. 31). This framework takes us beyond clunky explanations of armed group size and/or strength as a determinant of State responses, Strategic Analysis, 2022 Vol. 46, No. 5, 542–544, https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2115229","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"542 - 544"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44345667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NATO Eastward Expansion and Russian Security","authors":"O. N. Mehrotra","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2080473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2080473","url":null,"abstract":"Published in Strategic Analysis (Vol. 46, No. 2, 2022)","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138532474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sufficiency Economy Philosophy (SEP): Thailand’s Emic Approach to Governance and Development as Evidence of an Asian Value-Oriented Inclusive Leadership Management Philosophy","authors":"Otto Federico von Feigenblatt, M. Cooper, Phillip Pardo","doi":"10.1080/09700161.2022.2111765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2022.2111765","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Thailand has been at the core of the Asian Values debate since the 1992 World Conference on Human Rights. Sufficiency Economy Philosophy (SEP) is a concept developed by the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej to consolidate his approach to governance and development. Integrating values borrowed from Theravada Buddhism such as benevolence, emphasis on the middle way and on the public good. This article explores the development of SEP focussing on the role of values and leadership styles. SEP provides evidence of an Asian value-oriented inclusive leadership style, which is practiced in both the private and the public sectors. A model of SEP as a management style is presented and subjected to critical analysis.","PeriodicalId":45012,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"430 - 440"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45401949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}