{"title":"Minimum wages and foster care placement disruption","authors":"Florence Neymotin, William Hawks","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12671","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the potential secondary impacts of raising the minimum wage in a jurisdiction on the efficiency of its foster care placement system. We employ the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) restricted-access dataset representing all children in the US foster care system for the years 2000–21. We calculate placement efficiency as the number of yearly moves experienced by a child in the foster care system, with a decrease in the number of placements interpreted as benefitting children both psychologically and behaviourally. This increase in stability benefits the foster parents and corresponds to a smaller financial strain on the public. After including various controls and state-year fixed effects, our Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analyses find that increased minimum wages are significantly associated with lower levels of placement disruption. We take this as promising initial descriptive evidence for the secondary effects of the minimum wage on reducing the financial burden, and increasing the placement efficiency, of the foster care system.</p>","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"540-560"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The reckoning: From the second slavery to abolition, 1776–1888 By Robin Blackburn. Verso. 2024. pp. 544. £35.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1804293416. £15.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1804293430","authors":"Stephen Wilkinson","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12667","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"632-634"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Accounting for large fiscal government size","authors":"Ryan H Murphy","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12677","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There is extensive evidence of the negative effects of the fiscal size of government – the spending, taxing, and ownership roles of the state – on economic performance (Bergh & Henrekson, <span>2011</span>). But how do governments get big? As the size of government is measured as part of the Fraser Institute's <i>Economic Freedom of the World</i> index, we observe a wide variety of countries as having very large governments. We see the Nordic countries, which are among to be the most democratic in the world. We see a variety of autocracies. We see small countries like Lesotho, Eswatini, and Timor-Leste. When governments spend and own a large proportion of the economy, is there any ready explanation as to why?</p><p>The approach here is narrative-based, though informed strongly by data. It is likely that that a large number of variables influence the size of government, and many of them may influence different aspects of government size. Factors that cause a government to begin nationalising industries may be different from the factors that cause it to expand its pension system, for example. In the academic literature, there are many explanations that very plausibly tell us why some states are a bit bigger or a bit smaller, on the margin.<sup>1</sup> What we wish to do instead is to identify commonalities among groups of countries with very large governments, where the commonality plausibly has a direct pathway to the countries' size of governments. For simplicity's sake, we are considering the top quartile of countries with the largest governments, or 42 countries.</p><p>Again in contrast to the academic literature, we are not even making a claim to the ‘average treatment effect’ of the three variables we eventually identify. None of them is a mechanical law and each narrative has a counter-example. Rather, we wish to establish certain basic descriptive facts concerning the size of government. A great deal of confusion has arisen as a result of the lack of clarity regarding such basic descriptive facts; for instance the suggestion that the size of government should be removed from <i>Economic Freedom of the World</i> because of its lack of positive correlation with the rest of the index (Ott, <span>2018</span>; cf. Murphy, <span>2022a</span>). And although the issue is beginning to get rectified, there has long been confusion about the sustainability of Nordic ‘socialism’ (Lawson & Powell, <span>2019</span>, pp. 5–14; Christensen et al., <span>2023</span>). In this article, we hope to similarly facilitate improved discourse concerning the nature of the size of government.</p><p>Today, <i>Economic Freedom of the World</i> scores 165 jurisdictions. Of those, the top quartile of countries in terms of the size of government includes countries that are wealthy and countries that remain undeveloped. Jurisdictions rarely have uniformly low or high measures when it comes to the size of government as some components and subcomponents are negati","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"589-600"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12677","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Anti-capitalists, post-colonialists, and the controversy about the ‘colonisation of space’","authors":"Rainer Zitelmann","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12672","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The successful Apollo programme, which achieved the first (and later five more) moon landings in the late 1960s and early 1970s, was followed by several lost decades for manned space travel. Despite NASA's accomplishments in unmanned space exploration such as the development of the Webb Space Telescope, progress in manned space exploration ground to a halt for decades. The shuttle programme, which ran from 1981 to 2011, failed to live up to expectations. A new study from Matthew H. Hersch arrives at a sobering conclusion: “By every measure, the shuttle had fallen short of even the modest hopes that had surrounded it. And the shuttle remained flying only because every effort to replace it with a better-winged, reusable craft also failed” (<span>2023</span>, p. 7).</p><p>Only the emergence of private space companies such as Elon Musk's Space X and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin has brought a new dynamic to the space industry. According to a study by the World Economic Forum (<span>2024</span>), the space economy is expected to grow to US$1.8 trillion by 2035. Chad Anderson from the US investment firm Space Capital estimates: “Over a quarter of a trillion dollars has been invested into nearly 2,000 unique space companies over the past decade alone” (<span>2023</span>, p. xx).</p><p>However, with the emergence of a new, dynamic private space industry, criticism is also growing.</p><p>Elon Musk argues that mankind essentially has a duty to colonise other planets because sooner or later an asteroid impact could lead to the extinction of our species. Researchers today widely concur that the dinosaurs – along with 75 per cent of other life on Earth – were wiped out by a meteorite strike 66 million years ago. There is plenty of evidence of past asteroid collisions; our planet Earth bears the visible scars of countless impacts in the form of craters that can still be seen today. An asteroid with a diameter of 30–50 metres hit Arizona 50,000 years ago with 150 times the force of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. Asteroids are often smaller, such as the one that hit the Pacific Ocean on 1 October 1990, although even that had the same explosive power as a Nagasaki bomb. If it had hit a populated area, such as a city, tens or even hundreds of thousands of people would have died.</p><p>It's not a question of whether another asteroid capable of causing mass extinction will hit the Earth at some point, but when. While science fiction movies such as <i>Armageddon</i> depict scenarios in which asteroids are successfully destroyed or diverted from their paths, the reality of such a feat would be far more complex. For Elon Musk, the human settlement of Mars is a life insurance policy against the extinction of our species and a first step on our journey towards becoming an interplanetary civilisation.</p><p>The feasibility of colonising Mars remains a topic of debate throughout the scientific community. Robert Zubrin, founder and president of the Mars Society, and","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"572-581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12672","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What is the relationship between industry-specific regulation and technology startups?","authors":"Liya Palagashvili, Paola A Suarez","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12674","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the relationship between industry-specific regulations and startup birth rates (entry) and startup ‘deaths’ (closings) in the United States and Canada during 2012–19. Our sample contains data on thousands of active and closed technology startups in the United States and Canada that were founded between January 2012 and June 2019. We use the Mercatus Center's RegData database to capture the intensity of national-level regulations. Our findings suggest that more regulated industries may exhibit lower rates of entry and that more regulated industries are associated with a greater likelihood of a startup closing. These findings seem more robust for the US than for Canada. We discuss startup funding as a potential mechanism by which regulation may impact startup closings, using our fieldwork interviews with over 100 technology startup executives and venture capital investors.</p>","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"465-486"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12674","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Red flags but no yellow cards: The ‘WelCond’ research on welfare conditionality and unemployed people","authors":"Andrew Dunn","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12663","url":null,"abstract":"<p>\u0000 <span>Peter Dwyer</span>, <span>Lisa Scullion</span>, <span>Katy Jones</span>, <span>Jenny McNeill</span> & <span>Alastair B. R. Stewart</span>, <span><i>The Impacts of Welfare Conditionality: Sanctions, Support and Behavioural Change</i></span>. Policy Press. <span>2022</span>. pp. <span>218</span>. £80 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1447320111. £26.99 (pbk). ISBN: 978-1447343738. £26.99 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1447343745</p><p>Behavioural conditions have always been attached to the receipt of social security benefits for the UK's unemployed. These conditions have increased in number and scope in recent decades, alongside heavier sanctions for non-compliance, as part of a trend across OECD countries (Watts & Fitzpatrick, <span>2018</span>). The UK Welfare Reform Act <span>2012</span> was a landmark in this process. Its “work search requirement” obliges claimants of unemployment benefit – now Universal Credit (UC), previously Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) – to take “all reasonable action” and “any particular action specified by the Secretary of State, for the purpose of obtaining work” (s. 17). In practice this means that a Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) ‘Work Coach’ can now compel an unemployed UC claimant, under threat of a financial penalty, to apply for a job of their choosing. Those who leave a job voluntarily and then apply for UC can now also face a “sanction” (s. 49).</p><p>Heralding the 2012 Act, its architect, the then Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Iain Duncan Smith (<span>2010</span>), argued in a speech that “reinforced conditionality” to ensure claimants “take reasonable offers of work” was necessitated by the benefit system's regrettable drift towards one that “Beveridge warned against”, in which “idleness” had become “institutionalised” (see Beveridge, <span>1942</span>, p. 58). In the same speech, he claimed that in the 2000s British companies had been “unable to get British people to fill” some job vacancies, so “workers from overseas stepped in”. Around this time, Duncan Smith referred to a television documentary in which some unemployed benefit claimants would not get “on a bus” to a nearby city to widen their job search (BBC, <span>2010</span>). The issues Duncan Smith referred to may be persisting; there were 5.6 million UK people of working age on out-of-work benefits in December 2023, just below the record high of 5.9 million in 1993, despite 0.9 million unfilled job vacancies (see Andrews, <span>2024</span>).</p><p>This review article focuses on the £2 million Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)-funded ‘Welfare Conditionality: Sanctions, Support and Behaviour Change’ research programme (often abbreviated to ‘WelCond’). Led by Peter Dwyer, a Professor of Social Policy at the University of York, and involving academics from six universities, it ran from 2013 to 2018, just as the 2012 Act's new policies were being slowly rolled out across the country. The project's main purpose was to test ","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"602-613"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12663","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Islamic economics: Intertemporal prices, interest rates and discount rates","authors":"Gerald R Steele","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12659","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The discussion draws upon core aspects of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Relevant comparisons are between (<i>a</i>) analyses as respectively introduced by Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes, and (<i>b</i>) analyses constrained by Islamic religious law (Sharia) as interpreted and developed by Islamic scholars.</p><p>The views here reported reflect conversations at the conference ‘Mainstreaming Islamic Economics in Islamic Banking and Finance’ held at the Markfield Institute of Higher Education, Leicestershire, UK, in July 2023. The discussion also draws from Steele (<span>2022</span>) and Koehler (<span>2023</span>).</p><p>The ‘classical’ economic distinctions of the eighteenth century between the economically productive contributions of labourers, landowners, and capitalists were superseded in the late nineteenth century by the analytical approach of ‘neoclassical’ economics. The focus then became supply, demand, and the costs incurred in producing and sending goods and services to market. With production and distribution occurring over periods of varying length, payments forthcoming further into the future generally have a lower commercial value than payments immediately received. That distinction is systematised in the valuation of discounted cash flows. In broad terms, as labour-intensive methods generally deliver goods promptly to market, capital-intensive methods deliver greater volumes over extended periods.</p><p>In making appropriate adjustments, as directed by competitive discount rates, cost-efficient investments are achievable: for example, those relating to hiring premises, purchasing materials and machinery, recruiting labour and marketing products. As discount rates fall/rise, optimal readjustments to those components can be made. Motivated by competition, returns from production periods of different length eventually equalise. Such systematic adjustments underpin Austrian business cycle theory (see Steele, <span>1988</span>, <span>1992</span>).</p><p>Under a planned (state-controlled) system, dirigiste interventions might set production targets. In a competitive free-enterprise economy, decisions taken by consumers and businesses determine market prices and sales. Large profits and disastrous failures are features common to both. The general relevance is (<i>a</i>) that shortages and surpluses are indicative of suboptimal adjustments, and (<i>b</i>) that all investments are intertemporal activities, where the application of appropriate discount rates allows rational evaluations of prospective returns across different production periods.</p><p>Schematically, the mathematical presentations of interest rates and discount rates are conceptually equivalent: one forward-looking, the other backward-looking. Together, it is those presentations that indicate optimal deployments of labour, capital and other productive inputs. Yet, where time per se is generally relevant to profitability, it is only in respect of the payment of intere","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 3","pages":"582-588"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12659","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142435031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monitoring the state or the market: From laissez faire to market fundamentalism By Vito Tanzi. Cambridge University Press. 2023. 232 pp. £70.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-100943447. £22.99 (pbk). ISBN: 978-1009434478. £21.84 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1009434430","authors":"Carlo Stagnaro","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12635","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 2","pages":"423-425"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141487945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The economics of China's Holistic View of National Security: A preliminary assessment","authors":"Kerry Liu","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12646","url":null,"abstract":"<p>From December 2020, China made a significant shift towards prioritising security over development. This study delves into the economic repercussions of China's security policy, specifically the Holistic View of National Security. The evolution of this security policy is analysed utilising Baidu Index data. The components of the policy, encompassing political, economic, financial and technology security, are scrutinised, with the economic burdens it imposes being highlighted. China's recent legislative measures concerning national security are assessed, with their potential to hamper economic growth. The adverse effects of the security policy on the economy are uncovered by examining foreign direct investment data, industry sector trends, and the responses of the largest listed firms.</p>","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 2","pages":"218-244"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141487946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}