Journal of Global Economic Analysis最新文献_第3页

Shaping baseline scenarios of economic activity with CGE models: introduction to the special issue 用CGE模型塑造经济活动的基线情景：特刊导言

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.050101af

R. Dellink, D. Mensbrugghe, B. Saveyn

引用次数: 13

Capturing key energy and emission trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges 在CGE模型中捕捉关键的能源和排放趋势：现状和剩余挑战评估

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050106AF

Taran Fæhn, G. Bachner, Robert H. Beach, Jean Château, S. Fujimori, M. Ghosh, M. Hamdi-Chérif, E. Lanzi, S. Paltsev, Toon Vandyck, Bruno S. L. Cunha, Rafael Garaffa, K. Steininger

{"title":"Capturing key energy and emission trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges","authors":"Taran Fæhn, G. Bachner, Robert H. Beach, Jean Château, S. Fujimori, M. Ghosh, M. Hamdi-Chérif, E. Lanzi, S. Paltsev, Toon Vandyck, Bruno S. L. Cunha, Rafael Garaffa, K. Steininger","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.050106AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050106AF","url":null,"abstract":"Limiting global warming in line with the goals in the Paris Agreement will require substantial technological and behavioural transformations. This challenge drives many of the current modelling trends. This article undertakes a review of 17 state-of-the-art recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and assesses the key methodologies and applied modules they use for representing sectoral energy and emission characteristics and dynamics. The purpose is to provide technical insight into recent advances in the modelling of current and future energy and abatement technologies and how they can be used to make baseline projections and scenarios 20-80 years ahead. Numerical illustrations are provided. In order to represent likely energy system transitions in the decades to come, modern CGE tools have learned from bottom-up studies. Three different approaches to baseline quantification can be distinguished: (a) exploiting bottom-up model characteristics to endogenize responses of technological investment and utilization, (b) relying on external information sources to feed the exogenous parameters and variables of the model, and (c) linking the model with more technology-rich, partial models to obtain bottom-up- and pathway-consistent parameters.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48777313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15

Incorporating Unemployment into the GTAP Model 将失业纳入GTAP模型

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.040202sm1f

E. Peterson

{"title":"Incorporating Unemployment into the GTAP Model","authors":"E. Peterson","doi":"10.21642/jgea.040202sm1f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/jgea.040202sm1f","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the development of a labor module that incorporates job-search frictions, to introduce unemployment into the standard GTAP model. In this approach, unemployed individuals must search for a job opening and firms that want to hire must search for a worker to fill the job. To illustrate the potential value of a GTAP model with frictional unemployment, the impacts of a 25 percent increase in U.S. tariffs on metal products (e.g., ferrous and non-ferrous metals) are simulated. While employment of skilled and unskilled labor increases in the U.S. metals sector, employment of both types of labor declines in U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. These decreases in employment offset the increase in the metals sector, leading to a 0.8 percent increase in the unemployment of unskilled labor and a 1.5 percent in the unemployment of skilled labor. These increases would translate to a 0.1 percent point increase in the unemployment rate in the U.S. labor market. A potential barrier to wider use of a the GTAP model with unemployment is the availability of job separation or turnover rate data in regions other than the United States. In the example simulation, job turnover rates, and thus the initial levels of matched labor in the non-U.S. regions are assumed to be the same as for United States.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2019-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49168237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

General Equilibrium Modelling of the Insurance Industry: U.S. Crop Insurance 保险业的一般均衡模型：美国农作物保险

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.040203sm1f

A. Gohin

引用次数: 1

Estimating International Trade Margins Shares by Mode of Transport for the GTAP Data Base (supplemental materials) GTAP数据库按运输方式估算国际贸易利润份额(补充材料)

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040102SM1F

José G. Nuño‐Ledesma, Nelson B. Villoria

引用次数: 0

The GTAP Data Base: Version 10 GTAP数据库：版本10

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040101AF

Angel H. Aguiar, M. Chepeliev, Erwin Corong, Robert McDougall, D. Mensbrugghe

引用次数: 281

Melitz in GTAP Made Easy: the A2M Conversion Method and Result Interpretation Melitz在GTAP简化:A2M转换方法和结果解释

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040104AF

P. Dixon, M. Jerie, Maureen T. Rimmer

{"title":"Melitz in GTAP Made Easy: the A2M Conversion Method and Result Interpretation","authors":"P. Dixon, M. Jerie, Maureen T. Rimmer","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.040104AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.040104AF","url":null,"abstract":"Since the 1970s, Armington has been the workhorse specification of trade in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Under Armington, agents substitute between products from different countries. Conceptually, Melitz provides a more attractive approach in which substitution is between products from different firms rather than countries. Other attractive features of Melitz are monopolistic competition and economies of scale from fixed establishment costs for firms and fixed set-up costs on trade links. In this paper, we show how, with little change to existing code, an Armington model can be converted to Melitz by adding a few equations and introducing closure swaps. We apply our Armington-to-Melitz method to the Armington-based Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to derive GTAP-Armington-to-Melitz (GTAP-A2M). We show how results from a CGE model with Melitz industries can be interpreted via back-of-the-envelope calculations. In simulations of the effects of a tariff imposed by North America on imports of apparel, we find greater welfare losses for exporting regions under Melitz than under Armington principally because contraction of apparel output in these regions under Melitz generates an increase in the cost to their households of domestic apparel. Finally, we review two other Melitz-based versions of GTAP: GTAP-HET and a recently published model by Bekkers and Francois.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48930596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Estimating International Trade Margins Shares by Mode of Transport for the GTAP Data Base GTAP数据库按运输方式估算国际贸易利润份额

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040102AF

José G. Nuño‐Ledesma, Nelson B. Villoria

{"title":"Estimating International Trade Margins Shares by Mode of Transport for the GTAP Data Base","authors":"José G. Nuño‐Ledesma, Nelson B. Villoria","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.040102AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.040102AF","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate international transportation margin shares by mode of transport for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base. For each available origin-destination-GTAP sector triplet, we estimate the fractional share of the transport margin attributable to air, water, and other shipping modes. We use published relationships between ad valorem proportional changes in prices due to transportation costs and distances, weight-value ratios and fuel prices. Our final database contains 344,554 observations (origin-destination-sector-mode combinations) with transportation margin modal shares organized by 228 exporter countries, 209 importer countries, 45 traded GTAP sectors and 3 transportation modes. The main contribution of this article is to bring a more comprehensive set of information on trade by transport mode covering around 65% of global trade in 2004 and 55% in 2011. Our estimated shares contrast with those traditionally used in the GTAP Data Base which are extrapolations based solely on the modes of transport used by US exporters. A comparison of our shares with those used in version 9.0 of the GTAP Data Base reveals that the role of water transportation services in international trade is underestimated, while that of air transportation is overestimated. Overall, we find that estimations using the modal shares in version 9.0 of the GTAP Data Base overestimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with international transport. Our new data were used to estimate transport margins by mode in Version 9.1 of the GTAP Data Base, and it is expected that our methods will be used to update future versions of the database.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42424299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Tools for Open Source, Subnational CGE Modeling with an Illustrative Analysis of Carbon Leakage. 开源工具，地方CGE建模与碳泄漏的说明性分析。

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.040201af

Thomas F Rutherford, Andrew Schreiber

{"title":"Tools for Open Source, Subnational CGE Modeling with an Illustrative Analysis of Carbon Leakage.","authors":"Thomas F Rutherford, Andrew Schreiber","doi":"10.21642/jgea.040201af","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/jgea.040201af","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper introduces the Wisconsin National Data Consortium (WiNDC) framework for producing self-consistent accounts based on publicly available datasets that can be used in sub-national economic equilibrium analysis in the United States. We describe the process used to generate regional social accounting matrices and a calibrated static multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model conformal with the constructed dataset. As illustration, we show how the core model can be applied for the analysis of energy-environment issues. We use an energy-economy extension of the core model to assess the effectiveness of several state level greenhouse gas mitigation proposals. Sub-national abatement measures result in carbon leakage - mandated reductions in controlled areas may be vitiated by increased emissions in uncontrolled jurisdictions. Using a WiNDC-based model, we calculate leakage rates and show how these depend on the underlying trade model. Our calculations demonstrate the importance of both data and modeling assumptions for the simulation of policy experiments.</p>","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7266100/pdf/nihms-1563165.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38005899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

CGEBox: A Flexible, Modular and Extendable Framework for CGE Analysis in GAMS (supplemental files) CGEBox: GAMS中用于CGE分析的灵活、模块化和可扩展框架(补充文件)

IF 2.5

Journal of Global Economic Analysis Pub Date : 2018-12-27 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.030203SM1F

W. Britz, D. Mensbrugghe

引用次数: 2