Comparative Population Studies最新文献_第4页

Fertility Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Developed Countries – On Pre-pandemic Fertility Forecasts 发达国家应对新冠肺炎大流行的生育率——关于产前生育率预测

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-02

Patrizio Vanella, A. Greil, Philipp Deschermeier

{"title":"Fertility Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Developed Countries – On Pre-pandemic Fertility Forecasts","authors":"Patrizio Vanella, A. Greil, Philipp Deschermeier","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2023-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2023-02","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of our lives. Among other outcomes, the academic literature and popular media both discuss the potential effects of the pandemic on fertility. As fertility is an important determinant of population development and population forecasts are important for policy decisions and planning, we need to address to which extent fertility forecasts performed before the pandemic still apply. \u0000Using Monte Carlo forecasting based on principal components of fertility rates, we quantify the effects of the pandemic on fertility for 22 countries and discuss whether forecasts made prior to the pandemic need adjustment based on more recent data. \u0000Among the studied countries, 14 countries show no significant effect of the pandemic at all, while six countries have significantly lowered numbers of births in comparison to counterfactual trajectories that assume that past trends will hold. These countries are primarily in the Mediterranean and East Asia. For Finland and South Korea, there is statistical evidence for increased fertility in the early phases of the pandemic. In all cases with statistically significant fertility differentials caused by the pandemic, reproductive behavior normalized quickly. Therefore, we find no evidence for long-term effects of the pandemic on fertility, leading to the conclusion that pre-pandemic fertility forecasts still apply.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45827066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trends and Determinants of Birth Registration Completeness in Zimbabwe, 2005-2015 2005-2015年津巴布韦出生登记完整性的趋势和决定因素

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-01

Ronald Musizvingoza, N. Wekwete, K. Mangombe, Garikai Zinumwe

{"title":"Trends and Determinants of Birth Registration Completeness in Zimbabwe, 2005-2015","authors":"Ronald Musizvingoza, N. Wekwete, K. Mangombe, Garikai Zinumwe","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2023-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2023-01","url":null,"abstract":"Childbirth registration in Zimbabwe has decreased over the years, yet the risk factors associated with this incompleteness have not been explored. This study investigates the trends in birth registration completeness and factors associated with the decrease in birth registration among children aged 0-5 years from 2005-2015. We use data from the, 2005-06, 2010-11 and 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey. Trends in birth registration completeness based on survey year were calculated and multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictors of birth registration. Birth registration completeness was 75.4 percent, 47.3 percent, and 43.8 percent in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Inequities in birth registration completeness become apparent when examined by wealth, urban/rural location, geographical region, maternal education, healthcare utilisation, and marital status. Child age, maternal education, marital status, household wealth status, residence, province, and delivery place were significant predictors of birth registration. Efforts to improve birth registration in Zimbabwe should target children born at home, children born to single and young mothers, and children whose mothers are poor and reside in rural areas.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42296926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Refugee Migration to Europe – Current Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions 向欧洲移民的难民——城市和地区目前面临的挑战和潜力

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-19

R. Wehrhahn, Zine-Eddine Hathat

{"title":"Refugee Migration to Europe – Current Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions","authors":"R. Wehrhahn, Zine-Eddine Hathat","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-19","url":null,"abstract":"“Europe’s migrant crisis: The year that changed a continent” (Evans 2020) is a contribution published in BBC news in August 2020. Whether one should speak of a crisis is a question of perspective. However, it is undisputed that European society has changed in many fi elds by the refugee movements that took place in 2015 and 2016. Since migration processes always materialise in concrete places, the spatiallocal level, in which migrants are mobile and also immobile during a migration and at the (temporary) end of a migration movement, is omnipresent in research processes. Migration without space does not exist, neither in the imaginaries of migration nor in the practice of migration. All levels of space are addressed, from the EU level to the municipal level, for example, when it comes to political-administrative spaces, or neighbourhoods and individual fl ats of a household, when it is more the sociospatial dimension that is addressed. In this respect, all spaces are also present in this Special Issue, with a particular focus on the regional and municipal levels with their concrete places of organisation and materialisation of fl ight. For refugee studies, the municipal level is also of great importance, because fi rst, the basic necessities of life, from food to shelter, must be provided by local institutions. And second, integration processes, even under the restrictive conditions for refugees, e.g. due to the usual work ban in the initial phase, primarily take place at this level. In contrast to other forms of migration, this dependency of refugees on local authorities is signifi cantly greater, as is the challenge for local offi ces to organise the fi nancial and human resources to meet the obligation to secure basic needs. The fact that studies at the small-scale level are always linked to all other levels and thus determine the everyday lives of refugees as well as challenge research concepts is particularly evident in the study by Bolzoni et al. (2022) in this Special Issue. Comparative Population Studies Vol. 47 (2022): 513-532 (Date of release: 21.12.2022)","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46539309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does Sex Matter? The Role of Sexual and Relationship Satisfaction on Living Apart Together Relationship Transitions 性重要吗?性和关系满意度在同居关系转变中的作用

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-18

A. Ciritel

{"title":"Does Sex Matter? The Role of Sexual and Relationship Satisfaction on Living Apart Together Relationship Transitions","authors":"A. Ciritel","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-18","url":null,"abstract":"There is limited understanding of how the aspects of sex and relationship quality are related to decisions on whether to move in together, separate or continue dating among living-apart together (LAT) couples. This paper focuses on sexual and relationship satisfaction in understanding LAT relationship transitions into coresidence or separation in Germany. The longitudinal prospective design of the German Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics data (pairfam, waves 1-9) is used. Discrete-time competing risk hazard models on LAT relationship outcomes to coresidence or separation are estimated. The results underline the fact that sexual satisfaction is not related to LAT partners’ decision to move in together; however, higher levels of relationship satisfaction are positively related to the decision of moving in with a partner. The models reveal that low sexual and relationship satisfaction are associated with breaking-up relative to still living apart. This study highlights the importance of considering sexual satisfaction in understanding better the risk of separation from a LAT partner, in addition to the global indicator of relationship satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41821967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Past and Future Trends in Refugee Migration on the Regional Level in Germany – An Analysis and Projection of Labor Market Effects 德国地区难民迁移的过去和未来趋势——劳动力市场效应的分析和预测

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-17

Patrizio Vanella, Timon Hellwagner, Philipp Deschermeier

{"title":"Past and Future Trends in Refugee Migration on the Regional Level in Germany – An Analysis and Projection of Labor Market Effects","authors":"Patrizio Vanella, Timon Hellwagner, Philipp Deschermeier","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-17","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2013, more than two million refugees have arrived in Germany and have been allocated across federal states and districts according to legal policies. A steadily increasing number of refugees is now entering the German labor market, albeit under varying economic and demographic contexts. However, regional differences in refugees’ labor market integration have received little attention both retrospectively and particularly prospectively, given the projected population decline across Germany. Addressing this apparent shortcoming in the literature, we collect data on refugee arrivals by gender, nationality, approval rates, and regional allocation from 1995 to 2019. Applying principal component analysis and time series analysis, we first analyze past patterns of refugee migration to Germany and project both arrivals and regional allocations by gender and nationality until 2030. Then, combining the collected migration figures for German labor market regions and official labor market statistics, we investigate past regional employment effects from 2008 to 2019. Next, we calculate corresponding future employment effects conditional on our projected refugee figures, our estimation results, and official regional demographic forecasts until 2030. Our findings suggest that refugee migration does not affect German labor market regions equally, but instead has and will continue to lead to distinct regional employment effects. Moreover, the labor market integration differs by gender and origin of the refugees. Consequently, the interaction of regional employment effects with projected population change gives rise to different regional mitigation potentials in view of the upcoming population decline. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on \"Refugee Migration to Europe – Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions\".","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48166539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Local Migration Regimes in Rural Areas: The Example of Refugee Reception in Saxony, Germany 农村地区的地方移民制度:以德国萨克森州的难民收容为例

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-11-28 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-16

Hanne Schneider

{"title":"Local Migration Regimes in Rural Areas: The Example of Refugee Reception in Saxony, Germany","authors":"Hanne Schneider","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-16","url":null,"abstract":"The reception of asylum seekers has challenged municipalities and their populations across Europe in recent years: Many rural villages and small and mid-sized towns had little prior experience with large numbers of asylum seekers. The housing of refugees constitutes one of the most controversial arenas and challenges for local communities within the reception process. \u0000This paper sheds light on rural case studies using the perspective of migration regimes. Local Migration Regimes constitute arenas of migration-related processes including actors, practices, and negotiations at different scales. The analysis covers four rural municipalities (two villages, two towns) from two Saxonian counties in Germany. All cases have different strategies for accommodating migrants but all can be seen as post-socialist immigration societies. The findings show that the issue of reception and housing is seen as a recurrent and contested local field of conflict and cooperation in the rural case sites. The regime lens highlights the strong dependencies but also fragmentation between different levels (national, regional, and supra-local). Housing practices and strategies for refugees reflect local discourses and contribute to the social and spatial production of migration. I argue, that the regime lens contributes to an interdisciplinary understanding of local settings, acknowledges spatial and social structures but challenges empirical field work and data sets. This empirical research is based on qualitative interviews, media articles, and documents from rural counties in Germany and was conducted within the joint research project “Future for Refugees in Rural Regions of Germany”. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on \"Refugee Migration to Europe – Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions\".","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42979767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Five Years of Voluntary Refugee Aid in Germany 德国难民自愿援助五年

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Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-15

Kim Bräuer

{"title":"Five Years of Voluntary Refugee Aid in Germany","authors":"Kim Bräuer","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-15","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines voluntary refugee aid from 2015 to 2020, investigating the extent to which volunteers and refugee aid recipients have related their perceptions and emotional interpretations to the welcoming discourse and the local organisation of voluntary refugee aid. The analysis was based on contrasting sample of interviews and newspaper articles and includes a comparison of the politicised metropolitan refugee aid in Berlin with traditional charity-based aid in Braunschweig. It becomes evident that the emotional perceptions of volunteers differ depending on their reason for helping and their previous experiences. In addition, the article suggests that the recipients of refugee aid, most notably shortly after their arrival, do not refer to the welcoming discourse but instead to their own experiences or those of their acquaintances. \u0000Combining the concepts of governmentality and performativity, I use a critical perspective on power and add an affect-theoretical level in the sense of immersive power. This theoretical view raises awareness of the significance of affects and emotions in voluntary refugee aid. \u0000Overall, the stance of the article shifts. It sees refugees not only as persons in need of help but contrasts this image with the potential they offer. It takes a critical look at the last five years of voluntary refugee aid and considers the implications for voluntary refugee aid if, indeed, emotions are as significant as they appear in the article. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on \"Refugee Migration to Europe – Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions\".","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42633169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Trends in Female Education in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Coherence across Data Sources 低收入和中等收入国家女性教育趋势:各数据来源的一致性

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-14

Kristen Jeffers, A. Esteve

{"title":"Trends in Female Education in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Coherence across Data Sources","authors":"Kristen Jeffers, A. Esteve","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-14","url":null,"abstract":"Educational expansion and the closing of gender gaps in education are key objectives in national and international policy agendas. Monitoring progress towards these goals requires comparable data across countries and over time. The availability of international census and survey microdata allows for cross-national comparisons of education participation and completion. However, we lack systematic analyses of how trends vary across data sources and of the extent to which these data sources offer a consistent account of progress in education. In this paper, we examine coherence in estimates of educational attainment among women aged 25 to 29 in 75 countries across the three main repositories of international population microdata: IPUMS International, the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). Coherence analysis of 535 census and survey observations from 1960 to 2017 shows high levels of consistency overall but also identifies observations misaligned with trends. Results provide practical information to the research community about the validity of comparative investigations using three important data sources for demographic studies. The data also serve as benchmarks for assessing the quality of education information obtained in data sources not included in our analysis and the trend alignment of future estimates.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42458148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Partnership Transitions among Turkish Immigrants and their Descendants in Western Germany 西德土耳其移民及其后裔的伙伴关系转型

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-13

Muserref Erdogan, Ayşe Abbasoğlu Özgören

{"title":"Partnership Transitions among Turkish Immigrants and their Descendants in Western Germany","authors":"Muserref Erdogan, Ayşe Abbasoğlu Özgören","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-13","url":null,"abstract":"Adaptation to host country behaviours encompasses both individual and social change, bringing about rising diversity issues in the host society and societal shifts in the country of origin. This study aims to detect whether Turkish immigrants and their descendants converge towards or diverge from the partnership practices of the native-born population in Western Germany. Specifically, transitions from (1) singlehood to the first partnership, (2) singlehood to the first marriage, (3) singlehood to the first cohabitation, (4) cohabitation to marriage and (5) marriage to divorce are investigated. Data from the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam) survey for the period of 2008-2018 are used, applying Kaplan-Meier survival estimations and Cox proportional hazard models. This is the first study that includes natives, immigrants and their descendants simultaneously in an analysis of extensive partnership transitions covering practices of cohabitation, marriage and divorce and to investigate the proportionality assumption in Cox models. We formulate four research hypotheses based on the hypotheses of socialisation, adaptation and the cultural maintenance and segmented assimilation theory. Supporting our first hypothesis, our findings indicate a difference in partnership patterns between both first- and second-generation immigrants and natives, except for the finding that second-generation immigrants resemble the native pattern in their transition to the first union (including both cohabitation and marriage). Immigrants and their descendants tend to marry directly and have lower divorce hazard ratios than their native counterparts, while consensual unions are uncommon among Turkish immigrants. As suggested by our second hypothesis, the extent of the divergence varies across partnership transitions. Finally, our results provide support for our third hypothesis rather than the fourth in that partnership transition of Turkish immigrants’ descendants more closely resembles that of first-generation immigrants compared to natives.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42435196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries 跨越鸿沟:发展中国家的农村向城市迁移

IF 0.8

Comparative Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2096319

R. Skeldon

引用次数: 2