Journal of European Real Estate Research最新文献

{"title":"Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19","authors":"Martin Hoesli, Richard Malle","doi":"10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0024","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138524646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of abandoned properties in geopolitical conflict zones","authors":"Mohsen Shojaee-Far","doi":"10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0016","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeIn geopolitical conflict zones, the phenomenon of abandonment often correlates with challenges of legal definitions and ownership status. The abandoned properties in conflict zones share similar characteristics with what is commonly known as a brownfield site. However, due to the nature of geopolitical conflict zones, which is mixed with people and sentiments other than technical challenges, the usual solutions to the brownfield question, cannot provide enough tools to deal with the land management of areas engulfed in conflicts. This paper, therefore, aims to discuss and propose a land-use typology that describes abandoned properties in a geopolitical context.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed land-use typology serves as the main conceptual framework that integrates the sustainable brownfield regeneration approach with social theories of space and place. As an inductive research approach, this conceptual framework brought the fundamental and comparative literature on brownfield regeneration to support the main argument related to the similarities and challenges of the regeneration of abandoned properties in conflict zones. The approach used in this paper addresses the broader consideration of land management in geopolitical contexts and urban conflict zones that considers the relationship of exercise of extreme power over space.FindingsThe findings highlight an insufficient understanding of the origin of the property problems in geopolitical conflict zones, especially after a power struggle, producing significant land management issues. In a geopolitical context, urban planners and economists' perspective on definitions of space and place defined by maps, GIS data sets, Excel and other similar tools may not bring any practical or long-term solution to the land management challenges. The study suggests that dealing with abandoned properties and regeneration plans in conflict zones requires identifying and evaluating geo-political, geo-social, geo-economic characteristics of the area before any further action.Practical implicationsThis paper's findings are of particular interest to decision-makers and conflict stakeholders in geopolitical conflict zones, such as local governments, policymakers and peacekeeping agencies. The findings of this research can clarify and help them have an alternative understanding of the space engulfed in the conflict, other than a technocratic, mapping, GIS, statistical way of understanding and approaches to the complex aspect of a space.Originality/valueThis paper's conceptual framework provides a value-added contribution to the literature on land management in conflict zones by taking the reader's attention to the origin of the problems and their associated real estate issues in geopolitical contexts. For the first time, this inductive research proposes a land-use typology that considers the complexity of the interrelationship between land policies, land-use theory, social theories of space and place and ","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78974666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Counterterrorism protective security as part of the planning, design and development of crowded places in Australia: where are we now?","authors":"P. H. Christensen","doi":"10.1108/JERER-06-2021-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-06-2021-0034","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79587820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets","authors":"T. McGough, J. Berry","doi":"10.1108/jerer-06-2020-0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-06-2020-0032","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88707887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities","authors":"Sviatlana Engerstam","doi":"10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0020","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control.Originality/valueIn distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82579470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The “glocalisation” of Istanbul's retail property market","authors":"F. Eren, J. Henneberry","doi":"10.1108/JERER-07-2020-0046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-07-2020-0046","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe continuation of globalisation and liberalisation processes has prompted the restructuring of many national and local property markets. The research examines the evolution of Istanbul's retail property market to identify how global and local agents engage with one another to produce a unique “glocalized” outcome.Design/methodology/approachThe morphogenetic approach is adapted and applied to analyse the dynamics of market change. The focus is on the character and behaviour of national and international market actors and how they interact with the wider political economy. The research uses a combination of elite interviews, document analysis and corporate case studies to obtain empirical evidence.FindingsThe liberalisation of the Turkish economy heralded the entry of the first international companies into Istanbul's retail property market in the 1990s. International involvement expanded rapidly after 2004, accelerating the process of market re-structuring. However, while the number of global buy-outs increased, the expansion of local property companies–and the establishment of some international/national corporate partnerships–was even more marked. This resulted in a “glocalised” market with a strong and distinctive local culture.Originality/valueIstanbul has been a major centre of trade for millenia. This is the first substantive analysis of the recent restructuring of the city's retail property market. Previous research on market maturity and market evolution has paid limited attention to the dynamics of change. The paper describes the use of a process-based theoretical framework (morphogenesis) that was explicitly designed to analyse structural shifts in socio-economic conditions through an examination of the characteristics and behaviours of the actors involved.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83822818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What effect does gun-related violence have on the attractiveness of a residential area? The case of Stockholm, Sweden","authors":"Mats Wilhelmsson, V. Ceccato","doi":"10.1108/JERER-03-2021-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-03-2021-0015","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study aims to analyse the effect of gun-related violence on housing values, controlling for the area's crime levels and locational factors. Previous studies that aimed to find a causal connection between crime and housing values used instrument variables to solve the endogeneity problem. Here, the authors have instead been able to take advantage of the fact that shootings have occurred in random time and space. This has made it possible to estimate models to create windows around the shooting (event) and to estimate the causal effects of the shootings. Thus, the authors aim to contribute to the regression discontinuity design method in this context to estimate the short-term effects.Design/methodology/approachUsing the regression discontinuity design method, the authors can estimate the short-term effects of shootings.FindingsFindings from the analysis indicate that shootings directly affect those who are impacted by shootings and indirectly affect the environments where shootings occur. The indirect effect of shootings is momentary as it is capitalised directly in housing values in the immediate area. The effect also appears to be relatively long-term and persistent as housing values have not returned to the price level before the shooting 100–200 days after the shooting. The capitalisation effect is higher the closer one gets to the central parts of the city. On the other hand, the capitalisation effect is not higher or lower in areas with a higher crime rate per capita.Originality/valueThe article contributes to the previous literature in several ways. First and foremost, it provides an explicit analysis of shootings in built-up areas and their hypothesised effect on property prices through the impact on attractiveness and perceived safety. As far as the authors know, no study has analysed this issue on the international level or in Sweden. In this way, the authors aim to develop a study that can provide critical knowledge about one of the adverse effects of shootings. The authors also contribute to the literature by utilising unique data material, which allows the authors to merge information from the police about the exact location of shootings in the Stockholm area with data on sales of apartments in the same residential areas. In addition to the exact location of the shootings (coordinates), the authors also have access to data about whether the shootings led to injuries or deaths. Thus, the authors have separated the effect of shootings and fatal shootings, which has not been done before. Finally, the authors set out to highlight the results as a contribution to the debate on shootings.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78767665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using system dynamics modelling to understand behaviour in UK commercial property markets","authors":"E. Trevillion","doi":"10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0007","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of using system dynamics modelling as a research tool to understand the dynamics of commercial property markets in the UK and their long-term behaviour. It highlights areas for future work.Design/methodology/approachThis is a concept paper that outlines a simple systems model of rental change in UK commercial property markets as a way of illustrating how a systems approach can be used to describe and model the market. The model concentrates on the user market and offers a view of market operation, according to which development activity is initiated by demand (linked to economic growth) and to which supply responds by producing development.FindingsThe model demonstrates how a systems approach can be used to model the impact of a wide range of market variables on rental growth. The approach allows non-linear modelling of the complex relationships and behavioural factors that are difficult to include in existing econometric models of the market. It highlights where existing knowledge is deficient, especially with regard to price elasticity of demand, the relationship between economic activity and take up, the potential impact of redevelopment on the supply of new property and rental growth and response times of various parts of the market development process to market signals. It outlines where further research is needed to incorporate real market data.Originality/valueDespite the wide application of the systems theory to business and other related areas, its use in commercial property research has been limited and has not gained much traction as a research tool. The work represents one of a very few studies applying the systems theory to the UK commercial property market.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79709388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cyclicity of real estate-related trends: topic modelling and sentiment analysis on German real estate news","authors":"Franziska Ploessl, Tobias Just, Lino Wehrheim","doi":"10.1108/JERER-12-2020-0059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-12-2020-0059","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify and analyse the news coverage and sentiment of real estate-related trends in Germany. Trends are considered as being stable and long-term. If the news coverage and sentiment of trends underlie cyclicity, this could impact investors’ behaviour. For instance, in the case of increased reporting on sustainability issues, investors may be inclined to invest more in sustainable buildings, assuming that this is of growing importance to their clients. Hence, investors could expect higher returns when a trend topic goes viral.Design/methodology/approachWith the help of topic modelling, incorporating seed words partially generated via word embeddings, almost 170,000 newspaper articles published between 1999 and 2019 by a major German real estate news provider are analysed and assigned to real estate-related trends. Through applying a dictionary-based approach, this dataset is then analysed based on whether the tone of the news coverage of a specific trend is subject to change.FindingsThe articles concerning urbanisation and globalisation account for the largest shares of reporting. However, the shares are subject to change over time, both in terms of news coverage and sentiment. In particular, the topic of sustainability illustrates a clearly increasing trend with cyclical movements throughout the examined period. Overall, the digitalisation trend has a highly positive connotation within the analysed articles, while regulation displays the most negative sentiment.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first application to explore German real estate newspaper articles regarding the methodologies of word representation and seeded topic modelling. The integration of topic modelling into real estate analysis provides a means through which to extract information in a standardised and replicable way. The methodology can be applied to several further fields like analysing market reports, company statements or social media comments on real estate topics. Finally, this is also the first study to measure the cyclicity of real estate-related trends by means of textual analysis.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79890731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The idiosyncratic characteristics of Turkish REITs: evidence from financial ratios","authors":"E. Çelik, K. Arslanli","doi":"10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0004","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper aims to determine the specific financial ratio's effects on market value and return of assets for Turkish real estate investment trusts (REITs) traded at Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The paper intends to define liquidity ratios, financial structure ratios, return ratios and stock performance ratios related to market value and return of asset.Design/methodology/approachThe study includes 17 REITs traded in ISE. The period of study is specified as the year from 2009 to 2018. Panel data analysis is applied in this study. Dependent variables are current market value and return of assets, independent variables are 12 financial ratios, which are considered to explain the model significantly. These ratios will be calculated from audited year-end balance sheets for specific periods throughout at least ten years as time series. Two different models and hypotheses have been established to identify the financial ratios that affect the market value and return of assets for REITs.FindingsAccording to the results, long-term financial loans/total assets, return of equity and working capital ratio are negatively correlated with market value, while market value/book value and total assets are correlated positively. On the other hand, market value/book value ratio, price/earning ratio, long-term financial loans/total assets and earnings per share are correlated with return of assets. REITs have high levels of financial leverage, especially in foreign currency. The striking point is that REITs hardly ever do not use financial derivatives to hedge their position again currency and interest rate risk. This approach makes the financial structures of REITs vulnerable and fragile against market volatility.Originality/valueIn Turkey, as an example of an emerging market, financial borrowing does not increase the return rates and market value for REITs due to market's idiosyncratic properties. This finding provides substantial insight into how the debt and equity allocation of Turkish REITs should be structured. Also, it has been observed that forward-looking expectations are considered more than the current situation in the market.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89182920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}