{"title":"A volatile mind? Experimental evidence on dealers' biases and market volatility","authors":"Smita Roy Trivedi","doi":"10.1108/rbf-10-2021-0223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-10-2021-0223","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe study tests the hypothesis that following the arrival of news in the forex market, the trader/dealers demonstrate two kinds of biases which makes markets volatile: “Recurrence bias,” the belief that news which formerly led to volatility, will again generate volatility (i.e. volatility is recurring), and “Volatility Perception Bias,” the belief that increased volatility following the arrival of a news would persist.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses a preliminary survey and three simulated trading game experiments involving professional foreign exchange dealers to understand these heuristic-led biases and the biases' impact on market volatility.FindingsThe paper finds evidence supporting the presence of both “Recurrence Bias” and “Volatility Perception Bias” and a statistically significant, positive impact of participant biases' on market heterogeneity.Originality/valueThe paper makes two important contributions: first, the use of simulated trading game experiment involving professional dealers and second, the incorporation of dealers' biases and heuristics in understanding forex volatility.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78194987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Influence of bull and bear market phase on financial risk tolerance of urban individual investors in an emerging economy","authors":"N. Arora, B. Mishra","doi":"10.1108/rbf-05-2021-0087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-05-2021-0087","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study aims to analyze how risk tolerance is influenced by bull and bear market phases, age and professional work experience (PWE) of investors in emerging economies. The authors also analyze how different market phases (bull and bear) influence risk tolerance of investors in emerging economies for different age groups and with varying PWE.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses two quantitative methods, one-way ANOVA and hierarchical regression model (HLM) to analyze individual investors' financial risk tolerance (FRT) in India.FindingsThe authors find that age and PWE have positive relationship with FRT behavior. However, interactions of these variables with market phase variable indicate that risk tolerance has nonlinear increasing relationship with investor's age and PWE. The risk tolerance of older investors is consistently high in both bull and bear market conditions, while young investors display a nonlinear risk behavior in different market conditions.Practical implicationsThe study suggests that financial planners should include a longitudinal risk profiling of investors based on age groups, PWE and the current market phase to better understand investors' FRT and also to prefer more context-specific advice to investors in emerging economies, which, consequently, result in increasing the retail investors' interest in otherwise sparsely participated equity market.Originality/valueInteraction effect of bull and bear market phases on relationship between age and PWE and FRT has been scantly studied.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91167198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Herding behaviour in the Islamic bank market: evidence from the Gulf region","authors":"I. Yousaf, Jassem Alokla","doi":"10.1108/rbf-02-2021-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-02-2021-0018","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study examines herding in Islamic bank equity markets under various market conditions (up/down, high/low trading and high/low volatility) and during events such as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting days, Ramadan, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis of 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors also look at the impact of rising and falling oil prices on herding behaviour.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the model of Chang et al. (2000) to estimate herding behaviour in the Islamic bank markets.FindingsFirst, the authors estimate herding at the GCC region level, and the results reveal an absence of herding under all market conditions and during all the events considered, except for the GCC crisis of 2017. Second, the authors investigate herding in four Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates [UAE], Qatar and Kuwait) separately and find that herding is evident in all these countries during various market conditions. During Ramadan, herding appears in the Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Islamic bank equity markets. Herding is not prevalent during OPEC meeting days in any of the markets, whereas herding is evident in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait Islamic bank equity markets during the GCC crisis of 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Lastly, the rising and falling oil prices do not influence herding at either GCC region or country level.Practical implicationsFrom the practitioner's perspective, this study provides useful insights for investors in Islamic banks and policymakers, in terms of asset pricing, portfolio diversification, trading strategies and market stability.Originality/valueMany studies explore herding in the equity markets of Muslim majority countries, but not specifically in the Islamic bank market. This study fills this literature gap by comprehensively examining herding in Islamic bank equity markets under various market conditions (up/down, high/low trading and high/low volatility) and during events, such as OPEC meeting days, Ramadan, the GCC crisis of 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76290217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christi R. Wann, Beverly K. Brockman, Christopher M. Brockman
{"title":"Credit record overconfidence and alternative financial service use","authors":"Christi R. Wann, Beverly K. Brockman, Christopher M. Brockman","doi":"10.1108/rbf-09-2021-0171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-09-2021-0171","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the effect of credit record overconfidence on the use of alternative financial services (AFSs).Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the 2018 National Financial Capability Study (NFCS), the authors estimate logistic regressions on the use of at least one AFS by adding a credit record confidence variable that captures deviations between self-assessments of credit record management and the number of reported behaviors that would negatively affect aspects of a Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) score.FindingsThe authors find that respondents with credit record overconfidence have over two times higher odds (123.9%) of using AFS than the odds of respondents with financial knowledge overconfidence (46.8%), relative to their reference categories. When compared directly, those with only credit record overconfidence have 32.6% higher odds of using AFS than those with only financial knowledge overconfidence.Practical implicationsThe results provide implications for education programs, not only for vulnerable groups at higher risk for AFS use but also for those with cognitive biases, such as credit record overconfidence. Potential solutions include personal financial education that includes debiasing and behavioral techniques for overconfidence.Originality/valueThis paper studies, for the first time, the effect of deviations between actual and perceived credit record management on AFS use.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88176867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Buy together, but recycle alone: sentiment-driven herding behavior in oceanic dry bulk shipping","authors":"Konstantinos D. Melas, Nektarios A. Michail","doi":"10.1108/rbf-06-2021-0103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-06-2021-0103","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The authors employ the vessels that comprise the dry bulk segment of the maritime industry and examine how market sentiment affects the herding behavior of shipping investors in a real asset market.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The authors employ a threshold regression model to examine how changes in market sentiment can affect herding behavior in oceanic dry bulk shipping.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The results show that the behavioral aspect of investing, measured through intentional and unintentional herding, contrary to the results for financial markets, is affected by sentiment on the buy side (newbuildings) but not on the sell side (scrapping). Furthermore, the authors provide evidence that when market sentiment is negative, investors tend to follow market leaders (intentional herding), while, when sentiment is positive, unintentional herding leads to common investment practices among shipping investors.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>The results have significant implications both for academics and for practitioners since they reflect a clear distinction of the pattern of investment decisions for real assets, compared to financial assets.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"274 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bearish conditions and volatility persistence during COVID-19 can microchip stocks weather the storm?","authors":"M. Marobhe, Pastory Dickson","doi":"10.1108/rbf-11-2021-0235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-11-2021-0235","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the impact of panic and hysteria news on the volatility of microchip stocks during Covid-19.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the P-GARCH (1,1) and random effects regression to model/examine the impact of Covid-19 panic and hysteria news on the overall microchip sector and individual firms. They further utilize the SVAR model to examine volatility spill-over from the microchip sector to the automobile and main technology sectors. Their time frame ranges from 6th January 2020 to 30th June 2021 to capture the effects of both waves of Covid-19.Findings The study results firstly reveal that Covid-19 panic and hysteria news have tremendous potential to model the volatility of microchip sector stock thus confirming the information discovery hypothesis. The authors secondly demonstrate the influence of Covid-19 cases, deaths and policy stringency on stock returns of individual microchip companies in different countries. Finally the authors confirm the presence of volatility spill-over from the microchip sector to other technology sectors.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors provide evidence to support the profundity of bad news in predicting stock behavior. The study results depict how Covid-19 has affected microchip stocks so that policy initiatives can be taken to protect the industry. The presence of volatility spill-over signifies the importance of diversifying portfolios by mixing technology and non-technology stocks.Originality/valueThe research strand on Covid-19 and individual sectoral stocks has received limited scholarly attention despite unparallel effects of the pandemic on different sectors.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80439249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Goulart, Newton Carneiro Affonso da Costa Jr, A. Paraboni, M. Luna
{"title":"Can personality traits influence Brazilian university students' financial literacy?","authors":"M. Goulart, Newton Carneiro Affonso da Costa Jr, A. Paraboni, M. Luna","doi":"10.1108/rbf-12-2021-0259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-12-2021-0259","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe objective of the present study is to assess the financial literacy levels of students at a Brazilian university and investigate how these levels are affected by profile characteristics and personality traits.Design/methodology/approachData were collected using SurveyMonkey, and a link to the questionnaire was sent by e-mail. The questionnaire contains three blocks of questions: demographics, financial literacy and personality traits. Ordered logistic regression was applied to a sample of 1,312 students.FindingsYounger participants, those with higher incomes and men were more likely to have a high level of financial literacy. The same was true of those who were less extrovert, i.e. assertive, sociable, optimistic and communicative students. These results contribute to the field by indicating which population segments should be prioritized in efforts to promote financial literacy.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, no study has compared Financial Literacy and Personality Traits in Brazil, a developing country that is only beginning to develop national financial literacy strategies.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76897918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of annual reports tone complexity on firms' dividend policy: evidence from the United States","authors":"Harit Satt, G. Iatridis","doi":"10.1108/rbf-12-2021-0262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-12-2021-0262","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of annual reports complexity (associated with tone complexity) on dividend policy and value of dividend policy.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the variable complexity provided by the textual analytics software (Diction 7.0) as the proxy for annual reports' tone complexity. The data covered non-financial American firms from years 2011–2019. The pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and the instrumental variable regression are used to test the study’s arguments.FindingsThe findings suggest that the signaling theory of dividends holds in the United States. Firms with more complex annual reports tend to distribute more dividends, mainly in environment of high information. When information asymmetry is high, managers would use dividends as a tool to mitigate information asymmetry. Furthermore, the findings suggest that dividend policy has a stronger impact on firm value, especially when the tones of annual reports are highly complex. These findings support the previous results, namely, that managers would opt for dividend policy as a signaling tool for its positive impact on firm value. The results are robust to potential endogeneity issues and alternative proxies for both dividend policy and information asymmetry.Practical implicationsThe results demonstrate that the dividends' signaling theory holds in the United States, where the findings cannot be generalized to all markets; However, the findings of this research can be of use to potential and current investors, users of annual reports and decision makers as well.Originality/valueThe paper highlights the effect of the tone complexity of annual reports (using 10K text analytics) on the value of dividend policy and dividend policy itself in a developed economy. Understanding this relation will enable stakeholders to forecast future dividends, choose more appropriate valuation methods and hence restore investors' faith.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"34 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77516274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence","authors":"Fotini Economou, Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Bartosz Gebka, Vasileios Kallinterakis","doi":"10.1108/rbf-12-2021-0268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-12-2021-0268","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review a large and heterogeneous body of academic literature on investors' feedback trading, one of the most popular trading patterns observed historically in financial markets. Specifically, the authors aim to synthesize the diverse theoretical approaches to feedback trading in order to provide a detailed discussion of its various determinants, and to systematically review the empirical literature across various asset classes to gauge whether their feedback trading entails discernible patterns and the determinants that motivate them.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>Given the high degree of heterogeneity of both theoretical and empirical approaches, the authors adopt a semi-systematic type of approach to review the feedback trading literature, inspired by the RAMESES protocol for meta-narrative reviews. The final sample consists of 243 papers covering diverse asset classes, investor types and geographies.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The authors find feedback trading to be very widely observed over time and across markets internationally. Institutional investors engage in feedback trading in a herd-like manner, and most noticeably in small domestic stocks and emerging markets. Regulatory changes and financial crises affect the intensity of their feedback trades. Retail investors are mostly contrarian and underperform their institutional counterparts, while the latter's trades can be often motivated by market sentiment.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>The authors provide a detailed overview of various possible theoretical determinants, both behavioural and non-behavioural, of feedback trading, as well as a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the empirical literature. The authors also propose a series of possible directions for future research.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Infectious disease (COVID-19)-related uncertainty and the safe-haven features of bonds markets","authors":"Shoaib Ali, I. Yousaf, Zaghum Umar","doi":"10.1108/rbf-04-2021-0069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-04-2021-0069","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to examine the hedge, diversifier and safe-haven properties of bonds against infectious disease-related equity market volatility (IDEMV), like COVID-19.Design/methodology/approach The authors apply wavelet coherence methodology on the daily data of IDEMV and bond market (US, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Sweden, China and Europe) indices from 1 January 2000 to 14 February 2021.Findings The results show no significant co-movement between these bond indices and IDEMV, thus confirming that they serve as a hedge against IDEMV. However, during the turbulent period like COVID-19, the authors find that the US, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Sweden, China and European bond markets act as safe-haven against IDEMV, whereas the UK, US, Japan and Canadian bond markets demonstrate an in-phase and positive co-movement with IDEMV during COVID-19, suggesting their role as a diversifier.Research limitations/implications The study findings are important for investors and portfolio managers regarding risk management, portfolio diversification and investment strategies.Originality/value The authors contribute to the fast growing body of work on the financial impacts of COVID-19 as well as to ongoing consideration of whether a bond is a safe-haven investment.","PeriodicalId":44559,"journal":{"name":"Review of Behavioral Finance","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74350005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}