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Offshore fears and onshore risk: exchange rate pressures and bank volatility contagion in China 离岸恐惧和在岸风险:汇率压力和银行波动在中国蔓延
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830
Jennifer T. Lai, P. McNelis
{"title":"Offshore fears and onshore risk: exchange rate pressures and bank volatility contagion in China","authors":"Jennifer T. Lai, P. McNelis","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper shows that signals from the offshore China spot market for the Chinese renminbi of the Hong Kong SAR (listed as CNH) directly affect the volatility of share prices of Chinese banks and the overall risks of Chinese banking stability. This is especially so amid heightened uncertainty about global trade or the People’s Republic of China. Thus, the CNH market volatility is a leading indicator of onshore Chinese banking sector volatility. Our results suggest that further offshore exchange market movements arising out of news such as increasing trade friction with the United States will generate greater volatility in the Chinese banking sector. Far from being a shock absorber for the Chinese financial system, the CNH market appears to be a shock transmitter of risk from offshore economic policy uncertainty to the Chinese banking system.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44008632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
In search of currency internationalisation: a perspective from financial openness 寻求货币国际化：金融开放视角
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-06-11 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1769897
Dong Lu, Erzhuo Liu
{"title":"In search of currency internationalisation: a perspective from financial openness","authors":"Dong Lu, Erzhuo Liu","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1769897","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1769897","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the role of financial openness for currency internationalisation. We provide a theoretical synthesis on the economic and financial channels that financial openness might affect currency internationalisation. Historical experiences from the UK, the US, Japan and Germany show the essential role played by financial policies to promote one currency’s international status. We collect recent data of a panel of countries to provide an in-depth empirical analysis on how financial openness would affect a currency’s acceptance in international official reserves. We find strong evidence that portfolio positions generally have a larger impact on the currency’s share in international reserves than FDI. Moreover, portfolio positions in the liability side, especially foreign investments in domestic debt securities, have a statistically significant and economically important effect on currency internationalisation. Our results have implications for China, highlighting the specific effects of financial policies on RMB internationalisation.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1769897","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45656734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The effects of the China–US trade war during 2018–2019 on the Chinese economy: an initial assessment 2018-2019年中美贸易战对中国经济的影响：初步评估
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-05-19 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1757569
Kerry Liu
{"title":"The effects of the China–US trade war during 2018–2019 on the Chinese economy: an initial assessment","authors":"Kerry Liu","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1757569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1757569","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The China–US trade war during 2018–2019 has attracted attentions from academics, policy makers, businesses and investors around the world. Unlike previous researches which are mainly based on hypothetical scenarios, this study looks at the real effects of the China–US trade war on the Chinese economy. Based on either weekly or monthly data during January 2018–December 2019 including creatively using the Google Trends data to measure the severity of the trade war, this study examines the effects of the China–US trade war on Chinese Renminbi, China–US bilateral trade and stock markets.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1757569","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48003260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Do consumer internet behaviours provide incremental information to predict credit default risk? 消费者互联网行为是否为预测信用违约风险提供了增量信息?
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1759765
Wuqing Wu, Dongliang Xu, Yue Zhao, Xinhai Liu
{"title":"Do consumer internet behaviours provide incremental information to predict credit default risk?","authors":"Wuqing Wu, Dongliang Xu, Yue Zhao, Xinhai Liu","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1759765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1759765","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The peer-to-peer lending industry has experienced recent turmoil, posing risks to fintech companies and banks. Based on a random sample of 33,669 borrowers who had downloaded peer-to-peer lending platforms prior to submitting loan applications to a well-known fintech company, Du Xiaoman Financial (formerly Baidu Finance), this article evaluates the predictive power of borrowers’ internet behaviours on credit default risk. After controlling for borrowers’ basic characteristics that are widely used in academic research and enterprise practices, the coefficients of key factors selected from 3,100 variables are economically and statistically significant. The average Kolmogorov-Smirnov value of the prediction model calculated using the hold-out method is approximately 37.09%. The results remain robust in several additional analyses. This study indicates the importance of non-credit information, particularly borrowers’ internet behaviours, in supplementing borrowers’ credit records for both fintech companies and banks.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1759765","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45586213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Environmental subsidies and companies’ environmental investments 环境补贴与企业环境投资
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1760764
Jianbo Song, Haiqing Zhang, Zihao Su
{"title":"Environmental subsidies and companies’ environmental investments","authors":"Jianbo Song, Haiqing Zhang, Zihao Su","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1760764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1760764","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Environmental subsidies are important means for the government to promote companies to fulfil environmental protection responsibilities. Employing a text analysis method, this study obtains the data on government subsidies for environmental protection of A-share listed companies in China from 2007 to 2016. Empirical estimates show that the subsidies received by companies promote their environmental inputs. Additionally, analyst tracking and internal control enhance the positive effect of subsidies on the companies’ environmental investments. The above results are still valid after testing the Heckman two-stage model and the Propensity-Score-Matching and Difference-in-Difference model. This paper provides evidential support for the effectiveness of government subsidies and explores feasible ways to improve the efficiency of government subsidies based on the corporate governance channels.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1760764","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44825783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
The effects of COVID-19 on Chinese stock markets: an EGARCH approach COVID-19对中国股市的影响:EGARCH方法
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-04-26 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1814548
Kerry Liu
{"title":"The effects of COVID-19 on Chinese stock markets: an EGARCH approach","authors":"Kerry Liu","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1814548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1814548","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has greatly affected financial markets, economies and societies worldwide. This study focusses on the Chinese stock markets. Based on Google Trends data during the period from 1 January 2020 to 12 April 2020, and using the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, this study finds that the higher uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic is significantly associated with the drop in China’s composite index, but this impact varies by sectors. Simultaneously, the higher uncertainty due to COVID-19 is significantly associated with greater volatility in stock returns for both the composite index and sector indices.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1814548","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46123935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
Asset–liability models and the Chinese basic pension fund 资产负债模型与中国基本养老保险基金
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-04-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3548718
Zucheng Zhao, C. Sutcliffe
{"title":"Asset–liability models and the Chinese basic pension fund","authors":"Zucheng Zhao, C. Sutcliffe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3548718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3548718","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Pillar 1B (individual accounts) of the Chinese basic pension fund (BPF) has suffered from substantial underfunding due to a series of challenges such as rising longevity, conservative investment policies, and the fragmentation of the pension system. Using an asset–liability model (ALM), we investigate the effects of the pre-2015 and post-2015 limits, as well as no limits, on asset allocations. We also investigate the likely effect on investment performance of transferring the pillar 1B funds to the Council of National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and raising the retirement age to 65. We find that an ALM is superior to an assets-only analysis, and removing the limits on investment in domestic assets (but not foreign assets) would be beneficial, as would transferring the assets to the NSSF and raising the retirement age. Finally, the official notional rate on individual accounts should be set at a realistic level.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44808207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital financial capabilities and household entrepreneurship 数字金融能力和家庭创业
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-04-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1736373
Yuanyuan Luo, Lianyun Zeng
{"title":"Digital financial capabilities and household entrepreneurship","authors":"Yuanyuan Luo, Lianyun Zeng","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1736373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1736373","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the impact of digital financial capabilities on household business ownership and business innovation. Utilising the 2015 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data, this paper constructs robust capabilities scores and finds positive associations between digital financial capabilities and household entrepreneurship. After specifying instrumental variables, the results still hold. In addition, we compare the driving forces of the impact through componential dimensions, and discuss the different function channels that digital financial capabilities affect business ownership and business innovation. What’s more, we add the interaction term of digital capability and financial capability, illustrate its role in improving the goodness of fit of the models, and further discuss the interaction effect both generally and at each level of the capabilities scores. Finally, we conduct robustness checks across socioeconomic groups and provide policy implications. This study highlights the different function channels of digital financial capabilities concerning different entrepreneurial activities, as well as the importance of interaction effect in understanding how digital financial capabilities affect household entrepreneurship.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1736373","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41743724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
Introduction 介绍
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-04-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1738048
Hai-qiang Chen, Ying Fang
{"title":"Introduction","authors":"Hai-qiang Chen, Ying Fang","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1738048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1738048","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1738048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49175396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structural design and performance analysis of China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles 中国地方政府融资平台的结构设计与绩效分析
IF 2.4 4区 社会学
Economic and Political Studies-EPS Pub Date : 2020-04-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1738031
Liang Guo, Erzhuo Liu, Yanjuan Dai
{"title":"Structural design and performance analysis of China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles","authors":"Liang Guo, Erzhuo Liu, Yanjuan Dai","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1738031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1738031","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we investigate the reasons for the establishment and operation models of China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs). We also outline the current literature on the structural arrangement and the developments of LGFVs. Moreover, we employ the empirical analysis to examine the driving factors of the financial performance of LGFVs. Using 1,042 LGFVs that issued debt securities during the period 2011–2016, we find that the financial performance of LGFVs is positively associated with local tax revenues, local education levels, local saving deposits, and firm size but negatively associated with local government spending and firm leverage ratios. Based on our empirical findings, we finally propose policy recommendations for the establishment of relevant investment and financing platforms.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1738031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48227107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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