Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies最新文献

{"title":"The economic costs of protests and policy recommendations for preventing them: the case of Hong Kong","authors":"Anson Au","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0056","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to examine the economic costs of protests at micro-to-firm, market sector and aggregate levels. This paper then develops institutional policy recommendations for allaying these costs.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper conducts a case study of the anti-extradition bill protests in Hong Kong by examining news articles, online discussions and economic indices from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. This paper further develops policy insights from an analysis of the Hong Kong Basic Law (the city’s mini-constitution) and insights from economic research.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper discovers that the protests may have caused overall volatility in firms, market sectors and the overall economy, measured in production disruptions, revenue losses and declines in employment. Among Hong Kong’s four major industries, the most severely stunted market sectors were tourism and retail, as well as trading and logistics, whereas financial services and professional and producer services experienced mixed effects. This paper develops two institutional policy recommendations for government and corporate policymaking for reducing volatility and ultimately safeguarding economic growth: the separation of political ideology and economics; the systematic use of public opinion analytics to pre-test the reception of policies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Corporate strategists and policymakers would benefit from and advance the economy by better insulating business decision-making from political biases and by investing in public opinion analytics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Much of economic theory treats social transformations as externalities. This paper adopts a different approach by foregrounding the role that social transformations play in shaping the economy. To this end, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is among the first to examine the anti-extradition bill protests of Hong Kong, arguably the most significant and widespread protests in the city’s and the region’s history.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44691555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An exploratory study of Western firms’ failure in the Chinese market: a network theory perspective","authors":"R. G. Bilro, J. Cunha","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0033","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to explore the external factors that lead Western firms to fail in the Chinese market, proposing to reveal the main challenges they face in this market, such as culture, guanxi or others. Based on network theory, the authors propose to group failure attributes and actions to predict business failure.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Qualitative research based on in-depth interviews is conducted, with a sample of 21 individuals, from former/current managers that did or are currently doing business in China and a person from the Chinese Government. This research resorts to inductive reasoning and to Atlas.ti software to perform the analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings reveal that it is possible to cluster seven distinct categories of external factors. Additionally, Chinese culture, local partnerships and the “catching-up effect” by Chinese firms are also external factors to be considered. The role of guanxi in China is changing, taking another format, and international companies in the Chinese market must take this into account.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Several limitations arise in this research, such as information availability and time constraints, sample size and the characteristics of Chinese society (i.e. type of government). This study also proposes further confirmatory research to test the seven clusters proposed.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Managers can understand patterns of business failures when targeting the Chinese market and use the seven clusters as a tool to address this market appropriately in the future.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper intends to shed light on Western firms’ business failure in the Chinese market. The authors argue that several external factors linked to network surroundings contribute to Western firms failing in this market and that network failure attribution is still an understudied topic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"14 1","pages":"149-168"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45121699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Achieving SDG target 8.1 (sustain economic growth) in developing countries: how aid for trade policy and regulations can assist?","authors":"C. Roy, Xiaoling Huang, Banna Banik","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2020-0071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2020-0071","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine how aid for trade policy and regulations (AfTPR) contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1 (sustain per capita economic growth) and whether the effectiveness of AfTPR is conditional to the stable political environment.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper uses a widely accepted endogenous growth framework and applies panel data fixed effects and two-step difference and system generalized method of moments estimation strategies on panel data of 50 developing countries over 2005–2017.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings of the study confirm that aid to trade policy promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries, but this category of development assistance is only effective and significant for low and lower middle-income (LLMI) economies. The positive and significant effect of AfTPR in upper middle-income countries is conditional to their level of political stability. Under a stable political situation, the positive effect of AfTPR on sustainable growth remains almost same for the LLMI countries, whereas for the upper middle-income countries this growth effect reached almost double.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000International trade is considered as a driver for inclusive and sustainable economic growth, whereas aid for trade is acknowledged for its prospective contribution toward achieving these goals. The findings have dominant policy implications for the international development organizations and donors, which recommend that it is more desirable to transmit aid toward developing and implementing trade policy and regulations as per capita economic growth improves in the aid recipient countries.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000According to the authors’ knowledge, no prior study empirically analyzes the effect of AfTPRs on SDG target 8.1.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43079604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the relation between purchasing manager’s index and trade policy uncertainty: evidence from China, Japan and the USA","authors":"Imlak Shaikh","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-10-2020-0068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-10-2020-0068","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Trade uncertainty does influence the firm’s new investment, profitability and supply chain finance. Consequently, it results in decreased consumption and low consumer confidence and eventually disrupts global economic activity. This paper aims to propose a model to uncover the effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the real economic activity and economy’s health measured in terms of the purchasing manager’s index (PMI).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses the PMI, trade policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index and short-term interest rate. The relation between economic activity and uncertainty was studied using nested regression and vector autoregressive model.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results show that PMI of China and Japan were more responsive to the TPU of the USA and remained more fluctuating during the year 2018–2019. Importantly, this paper notices that the US’s PMI reached a low historically subject to its own trade policy and tension with China. Overall, TPU has shown more pronounced effects on PMI across China, Japan and the USA, followed by important economic and political events and major trade tariff uncertainty deals.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The empirical outcome holds some practical implications trade uncertainty affects not only the economic health of the economy but also market participants, global investors and international political environment, recent trade barriers, tariff wars and ambiguity raise question about free and fair global trade and competitiveness of the member country of the world trade organization.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The work is a novel that attempts to explain economic activity and supply chain through PMI. Unlike conventional economic indicators, e.g. gross domestic product, producer price index, consumer price index, employment, etc. PMI measures manufacturing industries’ overall status concerning the number of orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries and employment.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48179444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oil volatility index and Chinese stock markets during financial crisis: a time-varying perspective","authors":"Panayiotis G. Tzeremes","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0051","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the interconnection among the oil volatility index (OVX) and the Chinese stock markets (CSM) during the financial crisis over the period June 1, 2007 to June 26, 2012.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Applying the time-varying Granger causality test, this paper conducts an exhaustive analysis of the OVX and the CSMs during the financial crisis. In particular, the financial crisis is classified in three stages, namely, the US subprime crisis, the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Briefly, the findings indicate almost a neutral relationship between the OVX and the CSMs during the entire financial crisis, the US subprime crisis and the global financial crisis. Finally, this paper has found a positive relationship between the OVX and the CSMs during the sovereign debt crisis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000This outcome clearly suggests that Chinese investors have to disregard uncertain information. In addition, policymakers can ameliorate the willingness of market investors in the CSM and further deepen the market-oriented reform of China’s domestic oil prices.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The innovative combination of these two strands, the OVX and the three stages of the financial crisis, is empirically examined in the study and this paper finds a non-linear linkage between the OVX and CSMs.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48628718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 pandemic virus on G8 countries’ financial indices based on artificial neural network","authors":"H. Al-Najjar, N. Al-Rousan, Dania Al-Najjar, Hamzeh F. Assous, D. Al-Najjar","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-06-2020-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-06-2020-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic virus has affected the largest economies around the world, especially Group 8 and Group 20 The increasing numbers of confirmed and deceased cases of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide are causing instability in stock indices every day These changes resulted in the G8 suffering major losses due to the spread of the pandemic This paper aims to study the impact of COVID-19 events using country lockdown announcement on the most important stock indices in G8 by using seven lockdown variables To find the impact of the COVID-19 virus on G8, a correlation analysis and an artificial neural network model are adopted Design/methodology/approach: In this study, a Pearson correlation is used to study the strength of lockdown variables on international indices, where neural network is used to build a prediction model that can estimate the movement of stock markets independently The neural network used two performance metrics including R2 and mean square error (MSE) Findings: The results of stock indices prediction showed that R2 values of all G8 are between 0 979 and 0 990, where MSE values are between 54 and 604 The results showed that the COVID-19 events had a strong negative impact on stock movement, with the lowest point on the March of all G8 indices Besides, the US lockdown and interest rate changes are the most affected by the G8 stock trading, followed by Germany, France and the UK Originality/value: The study has used artificial intelligent neural network to study the impact of US lockdown, decrease the interest rate in the USA and the announce of lockdown in different G8 countries © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"14 1","pages":"89-103"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44202674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 on the standard & poor 500 index sectors: a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model","authors":"Maha Elhini, R. Hammam","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0049","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on SPfirst, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and second, from April 1, 2020, until June 30, 2020, reflecting the lockdown Findings: Results of the MGARCH model reveal a negative and significant relation between COVIDg and SPincreasing fiscal measures by the US Government to increase liquidity on constraints;measures by The Federal Reserve to alleviate US dollar funding shortages;support market integrity;ensure continuous transparency and sharing of information;support the health sector, as well as consumer-based sectors that faced demand shocks and facilitate investments in the technology sector Originality/value: The originality of this paper lies in the examination of the impact of the novel COVID-19 pandemic on each of the 11 sectors constituting the S&P500 index separately, reflecting how the main economic sectors formulating the US economy reacted to the shock during the peak time of the pandemic to observe a full picture of the economic consequences amid the pandemic © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"14 1","pages":"18-43"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49056436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of infrastructure on economic growth in belt and road participating countries","authors":"Mui-Yin Chin, S. Ong, Chew-Keong Wai, Y. Kon","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0065","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to delve deeply into the role of infrastructure on economic growth in 59 belt and road initiative (BRI) participating countries from various regions of the world as the main objective of BRI is to encourage the participating countries to improve investment and trade facilitation via infrastructure. Besides, the development of infrastructure is in line with the United Nations’ 2030 sustainable development goals (SDG).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study encompasses all of the important physical infrastructure factors to compute a composite infrastructure index. Thereafter, this study used both the panel cointegration and the panel Granger causality tests to investigate the impact of the infrastructure index and other essential factors on economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results signify the importance of infrastructure development on economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. Besides, it is evident that capital, expenditure on health and education, as well as exports, will accelerate economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The findings of this study could contribute to the literature regarding BRI in two ways. First, it will provide insight to the policymakers of China and the BRI participating countries on whether infrastructure development is worthy of huge investment so as to enhance the success of the BRI. Second, the outcome of this study will give policymakers a better understanding of the determinants of economic growth, which, in turn, will help them in designing effective policies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47985226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managers ability and investment dynamics during the global financial crisis: an emerging market context","authors":"R. Naheed, Bushra Sarwar, R. Naheed","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0027","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Many scholars have developed several theories and empirics to study issues related to investment policy. However, there are still some unexplored issues in the field of finance that require further analysis and investigation, particularly in the corporate governance literature such as the role of managerial talent in the firms. This study investigated the impact of managerial ability on investment decisions of the firms.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study first uses firm efficiency and managerial ability by using data envelope analysis (DEA) proposed by Demerjian, Lev and McVay, 2012. Data is collected for the firms listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchange for an emerging market of China during the crisis period with 1,640 number of observations.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study reveals that the presence of more managerial talent in a firm is significant for the strategic decisions of the firms. Findings follow a resource-based view and identify that more talented managers help the firms in the acquisition of resources specifically during financial distress. The study subdivides the firms based on: ownership structures and financial constraints. Results generated from propensity score matching imply that the role of high-talented managers is significantly different from that of low-talented managers.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The study reveals managerial ability as a determinant of investment policy. To the researchers’ best knowledge, none of the previous studies have been conducted in emerging market literature during the crisis period.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42573105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An analysis of Covid-19 implications for SMEs in Pakistan","authors":"Rehan Aftab, Muhammad Naveed, Sajjad Hanif","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0054","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) on small and medium enterprises in Pakistan, which are vulnerable to crisis situations. This study also aims to provide policy recommendations to the stakeholders by reviewing the situation of small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) after the Covid-19 sudden surge.,The descriptive study is based on quantitative data technique and primary data collection is undertaken. The survey instrument is adapted from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics public documents. Collected responses from SME owners are descriptively analyzed using appropriate graphs.,The analysis infers that SMEs in Pakistan have encountered unfavorable implications of Covid-19 in the form of shortage of goods, blockage in transportation, decrease in demand of products and services, decline in profits and sales, limited operations, lockdown and employee’s layoff.,The limited sample and precise use of instruments are few limitations along with valuable implications of this research. The analysis of Covid-19 impact on SMEs is an ongoing phenomenon and aids in proactive planning for the second wave of this outbreak. Financing schemes, youth entrepreneurship loans, retention of skilled staff and proactive planning for adverse future are few recommended measures for revival of the SMEs sector.,The use of a unique sample and quality data set collected using the Bureau of Labor Statistics instrument adds value to the findings of the study and their consistency. The existing body of knowledge in the context of the SMEs sector of Pakistan is strengthened with an analysis of crisis implications for this sector, which remained unaddressed in the past.","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"14 1","pages":"74-88"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46950849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}