{"title":"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from Asian and African Developing Economies","authors":"Zulfiqar Khan, M. Khan","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Inequality is a challenging issue for all developing countries across the globe. Evaluating the role of monetary policy in mitigating inequality is imperative for researchers and policy makers. The central objective of the present study is to empirically evaluate the impact of monetary policy on income inequality for ten Asian and African developing economies from 1990–2020. The methods of pooled mean group (PMG)/panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and fully modified least square (FMOLS) are implemented. The empirical results indicate that money supply has negative, and inflation has a positive and significant influence on income inequality. It has also been found that GDP per capita income and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) have a negative impact on inequality. The findings of the present study recommend that money supply, per capita income, and inward FDI should be enhanced, while inflation must be controlled using coordinated fiscal and monetary policies.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42532900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Relationship Between Bank Concentration and Interest Rates","authors":"Tijana Kaličanin, Z. Grubišić, Sandra Kamenković","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of this paper was to analyse the relationship between market concentration and market interest rate. Taking into thought the relationship between the level of concentration within a market and the level of competition, it can be deduced that an increment in concentration results in a decrease in competition. In order to test the above mentioned relationship, the authors used a panel dataset covering the period 2010Q1-2019Q4. The set includes quarterly data of all banks that operated in the Republic of Serbia. First of all, a correlation analysis was applied to determine whether there is a quantitative agreement between interest rates and concentration measures, and also a regression analysis i.e., econometric evaluation of panel regression models. In order to test the hypothesis, a total of 12 regression equations were applied. Results indicate that that the concentration indicators have a statistically significant and negative impact on the overall active interest rate in only two regression models, which is inadequate to support the hypothesis that there exists a systematic influence of concentration in the banking industry on interest rates. As a conclusion, the regression analysis imposes that the variations of the total loan interest rate can be explained to the greatest extent by the systematic and robust influences of the key policy rate of the NBS and the interannual inflation rate for the given quarter, as well as by the robust tendency of a linear decline over time.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44645184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Econometric VAR Analysis of the Effect of the Foreign Exchange Reserves on Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Countries: The Case of BRIC Countries","authors":"Borivoje D. Krušković","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the effects of the foreign exchange reserves accumulation on the key nominal and real macroeconomic variables (GDP, employment, prices and exchange rates) in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). VAR model was used to empirically examine the effect of accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on macroeconomic variables. The empirical results in this paper show that after the initial shock of foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate appreciation occurs, which can be explained by the fact that a higher level of foreign exchange reserves gives investors and rating agencies a lower risk of the country, which can consequently lead to appreciation of the foreign exchange rate. In this way, the price reaction would be neutralized. Consequently, the growth of foreign exchange reserves leads to the growth of economic activity measured by GDP growth.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45652758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Isibor, A. Omankhanlen, B. Ehikioya, G. Osuma, A. Oladipo, Adedoyin Bunmi-Alo, Kikiyanu Ajalaadebowale
{"title":"Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries Using the Tool of Monetary Policy Effectiveness","authors":"A. Isibor, A. Omankhanlen, B. Ehikioya, G. Osuma, A. Oladipo, Adedoyin Bunmi-Alo, Kikiyanu Ajalaadebowale","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The issue of achieving and sustaining a nation’s economic growth is an issue that is of concern to many nations of the world, especially the sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations. This was in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8 of Economic Growth. This study, therefore, examines how monetary policy tools can help the SSA governments achieve the SDG 8 goal and also sustain it. Relevant secondary data on sustained economic growth (GDPPC) (dependent variable) and interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, and inflation rate (independent variable) were gathered from the annual report of the Central Banks of the 48 SSA nations. The panel data year covers the period from 2016 to 2022. The unit root test confirms the variables to have a level integration order. The Hausman test suggests the use of fixed effect regression. The fixed effect regression shows that for the 48 SSA nations, interest rate, inflation rate, and money supply were positively significant in impacting GDPPC while exchange rate was negatively significant in impacting GDPPC. The study, therefore, recommends that import promotion, for example, should be avoided because it raises the exchange rate and lowers the value of currencies of the SSA nations.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47440578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The New Era of Capital Regulation Complexity","authors":"Lukáš Pfeifer","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper describes the mechanism of overlapping leverage ratio requirement and macroprudential capital buffers and associated implications for the resilience of the banking sector. It examines to what extent capital buffers can be usable to absorb losses in the case of the Czech banking sector and what impact this may have on the lending capacity of the real economy. The non-usability portion of capital buffers in the Czech banking sector amounts to CZK 27 billion (i.e. 24% of the combined capital buffer). The lending potential of the capital buffer decreases by CZK 630 billion to CZK 1.6 trillion due to overlaps under otherwise equal conditions. The results indicate that the leverage ratio requirement may prevent the capital buffers from being fully effective and can reduce created macroprudential space.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42424658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Raising Interest Rates for Improving Income","authors":"Guillermo Peña","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0031","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper illustrates a case where an increase of the interest rates improves the economic activity and reduces income inequality. This theoretical exercise deals with a simple model of disequilibrium with accountant identities of budget constraints. In addition, and following previous models, the effect of the COVID-19 shock is considered, by reflecting asymmetric repercussions that increase income inequality. A simple empirical exercise confirms some of the previous results. The proposed explanation is that, for the euro area, this shock has affected more middle-income households such as the retailers harmed by the compulsory lockdown who have increased their debts.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42105723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reputation Lasts Longer Than Life: How can Central Banks Quantify their Reputational Risk?","authors":"P. Kafle","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It takes multiple decades of commitment and credibility to create repute but only a few seconds to tarnish it, as the instances of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation galore. In light of this, Central banks, as delicate and sensitive public institutions, are significantly vulnerable to such reputation risk due to their mandate for policy decisions and implementation. Thus, this study aims to formulate a barometer that quantifies the reputation score of central banks. The Central Bank Reputation (CBR) score is derived based on the respondents’ responses to a questionnaire that includes twelve attributes and twenty-eight indicators, which is administered among the eight set of audiences. The reputation score ranges from −100 to +100, that indicates the reputation of the Central Bank at a point of time. The deviation in reputation score between two points of time thus measures the reputational risk. However, the study suggests applying other qualitative analysis tools in complement with this quantitative barometer, to come up with the robust assessment.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48507085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Central Bank Independence: The Case of North African Central Banks","authors":"Amina Haoudi, Ali Bennagem Touati","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The independence of Central Banks is still considered to be a credibility factor in ensuring price stability. Thus, many central banks in transition countries have undergone a change in their statutes in order to achieve greater independence from governments. In this vein, within a decade, North African Central Banks have put in place a new institutional framework for their monetary policy. In this article, we will attempt to assess and measure the legal (de jure) and real (de facto) independence of these Central Banks (Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt).","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69215767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unusual Changes in the U.S. Treasury Security Market During the Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing","authors":"Kyle D. Allen, Scott E. Hein","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Covid-19 Pandemic and policy response rattled the US Treasury markets. Conventional US Treasuries, inflation adjusted US Treasuries, and the relationship between the two developed in ways such that ignoring changes in real interest rates yielded distorted inflation expectations estimates. Since the beginning of the pandemic, monetary policy kept nominal rates low and close to zero, but positive. Real rates, on the other hand, became increasingly negative. The relationship between the two market rates became negatively correlated, and distorted because of the fourth round of quantitative easing, along with the Fed preventing nominal yields from turning negative. Federal Reserve actions during the Covid-19 pandemic drove a larger wedge between nominal interest rates and real interest rates in the inflation adjusted market.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42473013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Kamışlı, Mustafa Özer, Özlem Sayilir, Patrice Racine Diallo
{"title":"Time Scales Based Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 Related Economic Support on the Stock Markets in Emerging Markets","authors":"M. Kamışlı, Mustafa Özer, Özlem Sayilir, Patrice Racine Diallo","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The main purpose of this study is to investigate the causal response of the stock market returns to COVID-19 related economic support in 19 emerging countries by using the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test (FTYCT). With the help of MODWT, we identify the instant, short-term, mid-term and long-term reactions of stock market returns and COVID-19 related economic support to each other. Implementing FTYCT, we determine the existence of the causal relationships running from COVID-19 related economic support to stock returns. We obtain two major results. First, the COVID-19 related economic support have significant effects on stock market returns in the short-, medium-, and long-term, except in China. Second, the results of the causality tests vary across countries based on the different time scales. Some emerging markets show an immediate reaction to the Economic Support, while most stock market reactions occur over the medium- and long-term. Since economic support will created unintended effects on stock market returns, the way that these support policies are implemented should be reconsidered. Also, their effectiveness should be evaluated carefully.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43852216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}