{"title":"The Three Dimensions of NATO Enlargement in 2023: From the Arctic to the Black Sea and Beyond","authors":"M. Gisclon, Fuat Keyman","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/odnv6667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/odnv6667","url":null,"abstract":"This paper will examine the geopolitical implications of the most recent round of NATO enlargement, which was spurred by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, through a three-dimensional assessment. First, we will broadly examine how NATO enlargement and the war in Ukraine have shaped the international system of alliances. Second, we will look at the strategic implications of NATO expansion in Sweden and Finland’s geographical backyard, the Arctic and the Baltic regions, and their effects on regional politics and security. Finally, we will examine how NATO expansion has impacted Türkiye, one of two members that has delayed NATO’s recent enlargement, and its strategic balancing act in the post-Ukraine world.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114482637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreword: Expanding NATO: What Challenges and Opportunities Wait Ahead?","authors":"Aybars Arda Kılıçer","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/tqmm2590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/tqmm2590","url":null,"abstract":"In an ever-changing world marked by geopolitical shifts and evolving security threats, it is crucial to reassess and adapt the collective defense architecture that underpins international stability. Established more than 70 years ago, NATO has been a crucial element of global security and a demonstration of the effectiveness of collective defense. The expansion of NATO's reach has become a significant topic of debate as the world evolves. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has effectively ensured the security of its member states through a collective defense framework, making it a successful alliance. The evolving global landscape, which includes emerging threats, changing power dynamics, and evolving security challenges, has led to a reassessment of NATO's role and scope. There are those who advocate for the acceptance of NATO's expansion as a means of strengthening security and fostering collaboration among nations with similar values. The argument posits that enlarging NATO's membership can function as a deterrent against acts of aggression, strengthen democratic principles, and promote a more stable global system. This special issue, which we had the great pleasure of working together with NATO’s Public Diplomacy Divison, seeks to delve into the multifaceted dimensions of expanding NATO, exploring the challenges and opportunities that lie on the horizon. As we examine this critical issue, it is important to emphasize that the views expressed in these pages are diverse and reflect the complex and varied perspectives on NATO's expansion. Our authors, specialists from a wide-range of different fields, contributed their valuable opinions regarding this important discussion which has become further important since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has escalated with simultaneously intensifying debates concerning the start of a new Cold-War in our time.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114318492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Where Does NATO's Enlargement Lead To?","authors":"R. Zieba","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/ecli2582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/ecli2582","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this article is to show from the perspective of offensive realism the implications of NATO's post-Cold War enlargement. These implications should be seen on multiple levels: (a) the security of the new members of the North Atlantic Alliance, (b) the USA and the cohesiveness of NATO, (c) Russia, (d) the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, (e) the militarization of relations in Europe, and (c) the global international system. The war in Ukraine is forcing the U.S. to make compromises with Russia and China, and this calls into question NATO's continued ‘open door’ policy.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133996268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emerging Technologies and NATO's Expansion","authors":"M. Kosal","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/scrm1902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/scrm1902","url":null,"abstract":"How can NATO’s expansion maximize the benefits of emerging technologies to allied states and to further strengthen transatlantic security? This article reviews the need for deep strategic understanding. It examines theoretical and practical factors affecting emerging technologies and their diffusion inside NATO and in the context of current and future adversaries. Moreover, it highlights specific environments and areas in which new NATO states' experience and domain expertise are likely to contribute to the alliance and explores the role of emerging technologies in defense strategy. Specific recommendations regarding Arctic operations, emerging technologies, and Track II diplomatic efforts are proposed.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123679931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"European Identity in Defense Policy","authors":"T. Grosse","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/omoe2669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/omoe2669","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to analyze the attitude of Europeans to defense as well as to progress in the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Is an EU-specific security and common defense identity being created? According to Karl Deutsch's concept, this identity was to lead to the creation of a security community similar to those that function in nation states. It was also intended to pave the way for further progress in European integration. Difficulties in constructing identity in defense policy may hinder further European integration, including federalization and democratization of the European Union. These problems with European identity may also serve to strengthen transatlantic relations and cooperation within NATO.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129246064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept: Preparing for a More Complex and Interconnected World","authors":"G. Spatafora","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/zqar4275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/zqar4275","url":null,"abstract":"In 2022, at the Madrid Summit, NATO Heads of State and Government adopted a new Strategic Concept to guide the Alliance’s adaptation in a world of strategic competition, pervasive instability, and recurrent shocks. The new Concept recognizes that many of the challenges and threats facing NATO, from growing pressure against the rules-based international order, to terrorism and climate change, are very much global in nature. Therefore, the Concept stresses the importance of adopting a global approach to security. This requires understanding the connections and interlinkages between different challenges and regions, but also actively investing in working with partners, near and far, in contributing to preventing crises and boosting resilience.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126946017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Deterrence by Resilience: The Case of Ukraine","authors":"Rebecca Jensen, Larry D. Caswell","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/odxq1683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/odxq1683","url":null,"abstract":"Applying the theory of deterrence to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, this paper addresses where deterrence failed and identifies applicable lessons. NATO’s success building and reinforce resilience between 2014 and 2022 demonstrates the capability of national resilience to deny an aggressor achieving objectives without escalation. Russia’s use of Strategic Deterrence presents the capability, credibility, and communicated nuclear threat necessary to deter NATO involvement, but Russia’s reliance on other nations within a multi-polar world increasingly diminishes the credibility of their deterrent threat. Finally, the Russo-Ukraine war demonstrates that as a defensive organization, NATO lacks credibility in extended deterrence and must act to safeguard aspiring nations.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121115869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Towards a Fuzzy World Order: What Role for NATO?","authors":"R. Higgot, S. Reich","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/poqk3201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/poqk3201","url":null,"abstract":"Bi-polarity, multi-polarity, the end of globalization, or Cold War v. 2.0. New explanations of world order abound. Often, they are asserted rather than reasoned by pundits looking for their 15 minutes of fame. This paper is much more modest. It eschews grand statements about world order. Rather we demonstrate that the future is far less clear cut and predetermined. Yes, a global binary is emerging around U.S.-China competition, but it is what we describe as fuzzy bifurcation. If our analysis is accurate, then it affects the behavior of other actors differently than a tight bi-polar system. In this paper we look at the implications of a fuzzy bifurcation of world order for that most important of alliances – NATO.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129556277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rebuilding “Greater Russia” and the Invasion of Ukraine","authors":"R. Kanet","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/pwcn9568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/pwcn9568","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines Vladimir Putin's commitment to rebuilding \"Greater Russia\" and its implications in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Putin's vision involves re-establishing the former Soviet Union and extending Russian dominance beyond its borders, fueled by a belief in the historical and cultural ties between Russians and Ukrainians. The article explores Russia's assertive and unilateralist approach to international politics, its military interventions in neighboring countries, and the justifications used to expand Moscow's control over former Soviet territories. Highlighting the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its devastating consequences, the author raises questions about Putin's long-term goals and whether they involve recreating \"Greater Russia\" or countering perceived threats from the West and neighboring states. The author contends that despite other factors that might play a role in influencing Russian policy, the re-establishment of Moscow’s influence/control over as much post-Soviet territory as possible – the recreation of “Greater Russia” -- is the most important role – not NATO expansion, although it no doubt was an issue. If the Russians are successful in dominating Ukraine, other former Soviet areas – for example, the Baltics – are likely to become targets of future expansion.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122716845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why Romania is a NATO “Model Ally\"?","authors":"Petre Roman","doi":"10.58867/ibis9578/uemm8098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58867/ibis9578/uemm8098","url":null,"abstract":"NATO’s eastward expansion was a fundamental geopolitical process that allowed countries to be prepared for the worst, the Russian revanche, by pursuing the best, the most successful path for democracy. Romania, which emerged from the tremendous communist Ceausescu regime, strongly wanted NATO membership and, after the first encouraging meetings in 1990, officially entered in 2004. However, Romania has been already back then contributed to many Western missions. Due to its geographical position, Romania is central to all NATO objectives. Now, Romania and Poland are the pivots of NATO’s defensive complex in the “post-soviet space”: Poland protects the Baltic Sea, Romania the Black Sea, where the Russian old-imperial appetites remain; Romania still defends the precious grain corridor. Furthermore, Romania is a “model ally”. There is a solid pro-Atlantic and pro-American sentiment in the country.","PeriodicalId":440859,"journal":{"name":"Transatlantic Policy Quarterly","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125332761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}