{"title":"Political fragmentation on the march: Campaign effects in 2016","authors":"T. Reidy, Jane Suiter","doi":"10.7228/manchester/9781526122643.003.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/manchester/9781526122643.003.0008","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter concentrates on when voters make their voting decisions paying particular attention to the campaign period. It starts by arguing that knowing when decisions are made is a vital part of understanding how elections work. The evidence presented demonstrates that a growing proportion of voters report making their final vote choice during election campaigns. Modern election campaigns with their manifesto launches, party leader debates and intense scrutiny of opinion polls matter a great deal. These campaigns work by raising awareness of new parties and candidates and providing vital information on the policy positions of competing actors. The analysis reveals that they are decisive in shaping voter decisions. Young people, women and urban voters are more likely to arrive at their final vote choice during the campaign period and importantly, voters who decide during the campaign are also more likely to have changed their preference from the previous election. These findings have important implications for the political system. They provide further evidence of the challenges parties face in building long term allegiance among their voters. Furthermore, it is also clear that election results may become more unpredictable as larger proportions of voters arrive at their final decision close to election day, making early campaign opinion polls more problematic as predictors of final outcomes.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126922981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mining the ballot: Preferences and transfers in the 2016 election","authors":"Kevin Cunningham","doi":"10.7228/manchester/9781526122643.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/manchester/9781526122643.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter 2 makes use of mock ballot data gathered in an exit poll of voters as they were leaving the polling station. This allows a unique analysis of voting behaviour in Ireland’s unusual single transferable vote electoral system. The chapter examines the stability in first preference voting behaviour in 2016 and how this has changed since before the financial crisis. The chapter also explores the patterns of lower preferences and what they might mean for the party system. Finally, it addresses whether preferences mattered in terms of the number of seats a party won in 2016. The analysis shows that the erosion of party allegiances that were so evident in the 2011 election have continued. Even though the worst of the financial crisis had abated, large numbers of voters continued to switch votes from one party to another in 2016. Second, there is the intriguing finding of the emergence of two parallel party systems in terms of the transfer of voter preferences, with voters on the right transferring votes between the main established parties while those on the left transferring between non-established parties.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"31 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131864812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Popularity and performance? Leader effects in the 2016 election","authors":"S. Quinlan, E. O’Malley","doi":"10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0011","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter addresses the importance of leadership effects in 2016. It assesses the impact of the leaders of the four main parties (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin) in influencing the vote for their parties. Overall, the chapter finds some evidence that party leadership mattered in this election, but not a lot. The Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, was the most popular of the leaders yet this did not translate into significant additional votes for his party. By contrast, the leaders of Fine Gael (Enda Kenny) and Sinn Féin (Gerry Adams), though less popular, were better at influencing the turnout of their base of supporters.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124765578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What do Irish voters want from and think of their politicians?","authors":"D. Farrell, M. Gallagher, David Barrett","doi":"10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0010","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter assesses how the record-breakings levels of electoral flux in 2016 may have impacted on attitudes towards representative politics in Ireland. First, it examines voter attitudes to the role of TDs (MPs) in 2016. The Irish tradition of high degrees of localism in representative politics is based on the strong attachment of Irish voters to a constituency orientation from their politicians. The analysis shows that this remains as strong as ever. There are, however, some changes in how voters make contact with their elected representatives – the second theme dealt with in this chapter. The intensity (or degree) of contact is resilient, but its form is shifting to more impersonal or virtual means of contact (especially among younger voters): the days of the ‘weekly clinic’ – that classic mainstay of representative politics in Ireland – may be numbered. Finally, the chapter examines what Irish voters thinks of their politicians overall – this latter theme referencing ongoing international debates about the emergence of populist attitudes. The evidence from the Irish case is a pretty positive one, with many voters indicating a favourable disposition towards their politicians – though this is not universal.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129009809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Party or candidate?","authors":"Michael Courtney, L. Weeks","doi":"10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter examines the significance of candidates in Irish elections. The act of voting is often judged to be party-centred, but in Ireland it is generally seen as taking place through the prism of candidates: parties select their candidates with care to take account of that; candidate-centred behaviour is also shown by the large and growing number of independents elected in recent Irish elections – in record numbers in 2016. The importance of party vs. candidate has been examined in previous studies: this chapter brings the discussion up to date for 2016. The financial crisis had a number of political impacts, and one was to increase the importance of party vis-à-vis candidate in 2011. This was because national issues, that parties are more capable of dealing with than individual candidates, became of greater importance. With the gradual recovery of the Irish economy in the latter half of the tenure of the Fine Gael-Labour coalition, this chapter considers whether this altered the dynamics of party and candidate. The analysis shows that voters have returned to the more familiar habit of candidate-centred ballot choices, though significant party-centred behaviour persists.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116110169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why did the ‘recovery’ fail to return the government?","authors":"Michael Marsh","doi":"10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0006","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter seeks to explain a significant puzzle of the 2016 election. There is now a very extensive literature linking economic performance with the electoral performance of government parties, with the relationship being a positive one. The 2016 election was an unusual illustration of a government being punished despite being able to point to a record of very significant economic growth and rapidly falling unemployment as Ireland’s recovery from the economic crash and bailout made it such a good example of the success of ‘austerity’ policies. Drawing on many studies that argue for certain contingencies in the relationship, this chapter explores a number of ways in which the good economy-government returned to office relationship went wrong. A key finding, contrary to general tendencies in the literature on economic voting, is that ‘pocketbook’ considerations were very significant in determining how voters felt about the government parties. The chapter offers some reasons why the Irish case is unusual and also questions the theoretical bases on which ‘pocketbook’ voting is downplayed in the economic voting literature.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131876771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of gender quotas on voting behaviour in 2016","authors":"Gail Mcelroy","doi":"10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7228/MANCHESTER/9781526122643.003.0009","url":null,"abstract":"In 2016 Ireland joined over fifty countries worldwide in the adoption of candidate gender quotas, and it became the first case of a country doing so under the single transferable vote electoral system. Its impact was evident from the dramatic rise in the number of women candidates fielded in this election – 163, as compared to 86 in 2011. This chapter builds on previous research of the Irish case to assess whether the use of gender quotas had any impact on voters’ attitudes towards women candidates. The analyses of INES data in previous elections found no evidence of voter prejudice against female candidates. There could be reason to expect that might change in the light of gender quotas. The introduction of the quota in 2016 was a significant ‘shock’ to the system: parties were forced to find a large number of women candidates very quickly, so the recruitment pool was likely to have more ‘average’ women in it. Given this context, the chapter tests for true bias amongst the Irish electorate. The analysis reveals little evidence of this on the whole, apart from the slight exception of Fianna Fáil, whose supporters revealed some male bias. Apart from that partial exception, the findings generally are consistent with previous studies: what matters most is how well the candidate is known, and therefore it is incumbency that is the main factor, not the sex of the candidate.","PeriodicalId":439961,"journal":{"name":"The post-crisis Irish voter","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126010049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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