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Predicting the 21st General Election Results Through Polling-Based Methods 基于民调的方法预测第21届大选结果
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2020-05-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2020.51.2.205
B. Koo
{"title":"Predicting the 21st General Election Results Through Polling-Based Methods","authors":"B. Koo","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2020.51.2.205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2020.51.2.205","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to derive broad inferences about the 21st General Election through polling-based methods Despite the challenges (e g , small populations, in-person campaigns constrained by the gravity of COVID-19, the period of prohibition on publication of survey results), this paper predicts the election results by using various analytical techniques and statistical models including the Bayesian predictive model Overall, the predictive model shows that: (1) regional polarization (Yeongnam vs Honam) via the two major parties will emerge again in the nominal tier;(2) third parties will decline;and (3) a solid group of voters will support the current government and the president They will play a decisive role in the remaining regions, including the metropolitan area The predictive model was applied to two battlefield districts in Seoul It predicted the victory of candidate Lee over Hwang in Jongno District In Gwangjin Eul District, Koh and Oh competed within the margin of error In terms of rates of party support, supporters for the two major parties were found to be gathering, while the Justice Party was on a downward trend","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49568207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Thirty Years' Efforts to Delve into Korean Voters' Hearts and Minds Achievements and Limitations “30年韩国选民心理调查的成就与局限
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2020-05-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2020.51.2.313
Byung‐Jae Lee, J. Choi
{"title":"Thirty Years' Efforts to Delve into Korean Voters' Hearts and Minds Achievements and Limitations","authors":"Byung‐Jae Lee, J. Choi","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2020.51.2.313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2020.51.2.313","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90790360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Implementation of South Korea's Nordpolitik in 1970s-1990s Focusing on the Interaction between Environment and Foreign Policy Decision-Making 20世纪70 - 90年代韩国北方政策的实施分析——以环境与外交决策的互动为中心
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2020-02-28 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.71
Jung-Mi Cha
{"title":"Analysis of the Implementation of South Korea's Nordpolitik in 1970s-1990s Focusing on the Interaction between Environment and Foreign Policy Decision-Making","authors":"Jung-Mi Cha","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.71","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90644242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Evolution of the Korean Wave How Is the Third Generation Different from Previous Ones? 韩流的演变第三代与前几代有何不同?
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2020-02-28 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.125
Sooho Song
{"title":"The Evolution of the Korean Wave How Is the Third Generation Different from Previous Ones?","authors":"Sooho Song","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.125","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82562701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Big Data Analyses of Korea's Nation Branding on Google and Facebook 谷歌和Facebook上韩国国家品牌的大数据分析
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2020-02-28 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.151
C. Chung, Yunna Rhee, Hee-won Cha
{"title":"Big Data Analyses of Korea's Nation Branding on Google and Facebook","authors":"C. Chung, Yunna Rhee, Hee-won Cha","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2020.51.1.151","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81443278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The New Policy Frame in Recent Economic and Social Changes in North Korea 最近朝鲜经济和社会变化中的新政策框架
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2019-11-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.483
Park, Sauk-hee
{"title":"The New Policy Frame in Recent Economic and Social Changes in North Korea","authors":"Park, Sauk-hee","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.483","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75864196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political Engagement of Social Media Users in Korea 韩国社交媒体用户的政治参与
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2019-11-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.587
Sung-bou Kim
{"title":"Political Engagement of Social Media Users in Korea","authors":"Sung-bou Kim","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.587","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80586729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Analyzing Public Opinion and Emotions Using Tweets and Online-Comments toward Candidates in 2017 South Korean Presidential Election 从推特和网络评论分析2017年韩国总统大选候选人的民意和情绪
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2019-11-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.647
N. Lee, J. M. Lee, Gidong Kim
{"title":"Analyzing Public Opinion and Emotions Using Tweets and Online-Comments toward Candidates in 2017 South Korean Presidential Election","authors":"N. Lee, J. M. Lee, Gidong Kim","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.647","url":null,"abstract":"The 2017 Korean presidential election was different from previous presidential elections for two reasons: First, it was a by-election due to the unprecedented impeachment of the president Park Geun-hye, and second, more than three candidates from multiple parties competed in the election. Since Moon Jae-in was predicted to easily win, the fight for the second place - between Hong Joon-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo - was very competitive. In order to understand the electoral dynamics, we collect and analyze tweets and online-comments toward major candidates with logic of granger causality. We find that public sentiment toward Ahn does Granger-cause changes in online sentiment toward other candidates both from major and minor parties. This result shows that Ahn played a pivotal role in the 2017 presidential election, and implies that Koreans are eager to have alternative forces.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77469427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who Protest and Why? The Evolution of South Korean Civic Activism Since 2000 谁在抗议，为什么?2000年以来韩国公民运动的演变
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2019-11-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.535
Kisuk Cho, H. Park
{"title":"Who Protest and Why? The Evolution of South Korean Civic Activism Since 2000","authors":"Kisuk Cho, H. Park","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.535","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.535","url":null,"abstract":"Street demonstrations had steadily decreased in South Korea after the country''s democratization in 1987 and subsequent reform, but the country witnessed resurgence of a series of mass candlelight vigils since 2000. This study examines three competing theses to explain the individual-level sources of Korea''s recent civic activism: ''disaffected radicalism,'' ''social capital,'' and ''Postmaterialism.'' We used 2005 and 2010 World Values Surveys as well as the Lee et al. 2017 protest study to trace changes in protesters'' characteristics and the motivations for protest over time during this period. Our results provide strong support for the Postmaterialism thesis and illuminate the evolutionary process of South Korean activism, demonstrating that the number of Postmaterialists has been slowly growing. The study confirms Inglehart''s prediction that a nascent democracy will follow advanced democracies in an upward trajectory of elite-challenging activity and normalization of non-conventional participation by mobilizing traditionally inactive voters.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77029373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Citizens Reshaped the Path of Presidential Impeachment in Korea 国民如何重塑韩国总统弹劾之路
IF 0.5 4区 社会学
Korea Observer Pub Date : 2019-11-30 DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.565
B. Jhee, Johann Park
{"title":"How Citizens Reshaped the Path of Presidential Impeachment in Korea","authors":"B. Jhee, Johann Park","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2019.50.4.565","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84088875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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