{"title":"Labor demand shocks, unemployment, and suicide: evidence from provinces across Iran","authors":"H. Noghanibehambari, F. Noghani, N. Tavassoli","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.1959830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.1959830","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the unemployment rate and suicide rate using data from all provinces of Iran and over the years 2009–2015. We exploit the variations in national industry-specific labor demand changes and province-level industry-composition as plausibly exogenous shocks to the province-level employment growth. Using a 2SLS-IV approach, we find that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with 0.72 and 0.68 higher incidences of suicide attempt and death per 100,000 population, respectively. Although both OLS and 2SLS-IV approach reveals consistent and statistically significant results, the marginal effects of the 2SLS-IV approach are larger, implying that Endogeneity issues underbias the OLS results of the relationship between unemployment rates and suicide rates.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"335 - 346"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2021.1959830","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46050071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Learning by exporting or self-selection into exporting?","authors":"Youssouf Kiendrebeogo","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1756105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1756105","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper explores the export-productivity relationship using firm-level data from Egypt over the 2003–2008 period. Previous studies using data from developed countries suggest that self-selection is the main driver of the exporter premium. Using a propensity-score matching difference-in-difference approach, we find that both labor productivity and total factor productivity are significantly higher for exporters than for non-exporters. On average, labor productivity and total factor productivity are, respectively, 43% and 61% higher for exporting firms than for domestically-oriented firms. Accounting for the level of development of destination countries, we find that this export premium is due to a learning-by-exporting process rather than just a self-selection of more productive firms into exporting. In contrast to exporters to OECD countries, exporters to Non-OECD countries self-select into export markets, signaling the importance of the technical assistance from OECD buyers.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"304 - 325"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1756105","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42415285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regional and income disparities in cost of living changes: evidence from Egypt","authors":"Shireen Alazzawi","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1770476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770476","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Inflation has been rising in Egypt since 2007, and reached record levels in 2017. It was more pronounced in rural Egypt and likely hurt the poor proportionately more, since rising food prices were a major factor behind higher prices over this period. Moreover, rising prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), do not accurately measure changes in the cost of living. When inflation is high, people resort to substitution to hedge themselves against a declining standard of living. Regardless of price changes, habit formation and taste changes can also render the fixed basket of the CPI less representative over time. To accurately monitor changes in the cost of attaining a given utility level, I constructed True Cost of Living Indices (TCLI) and used them to examine the regional and income disparities in cost of living changes, and the extent of the bias in the CPI. Results confirmed that cost of living increases were higher in rural regions, and that there were far larger regional disparities in cost of living increases over time using the TCLI. The bias in the CPI was quite substantial, ranging from underestimating the change in cost of living by 1.86 percentage points, to overestimating it by 1.05 percentage points, depending on region. Finally, I found strong evidence that households at the bottom of the expenditure distribution fared much worse. Depending on region, cost of living increases were 2.8 to 4.1 percentage points higher per year for the poorest urban households than for the richest, during the period under study.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"243 - 267"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770476","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44905990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is income inequality reflected in consumption inequality in Iran?","authors":"Hamid Noghanibehambari, Masha Rahnamamoghadam","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1770488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770488","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>ABSTRACT</b></p> <p>This paper presents a descriptive analysis of the evolution of labor supply, income, and consumption inequality in Iran using the 2005–2015 waves of the survey of Household Expenditure and Income (HIES). We document that the sharp decline in income and consumption inequality after the Subsidy Reform in 2010 was accompanied by a slight but persistent rise in respective inequality measures. We find that not only the level of income inequality is higher than consumption inequality but also that the fluctuations in income inequality are larger than those of consumption inequality. Moreover, income and consumption inequalities among rural households are higher compared to urban families. Finally, we show that within-group inequality, the inequality due to circumstances, can explain a considerable portion of the divergence observed between income and consumption inequalities.</p>","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"137 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is income inequality reflected in consumption inequality in Iran?","authors":"H. Noghanibehambari, Masha Rahnamamoghadam","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3671270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671270","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper presents a descriptive analysis of the evolution of labor supply, income, and consumption inequality in Iran using the 2005–2015 waves of the survey of Household Expenditure and Income (HIES). We document that the sharp decline in income and consumption inequality after the Subsidy Reform in 2010 was accompanied by a slight but persistent rise in respective inequality measures. We find that not only the level of income inequality is higher than consumption inequality but also that the fluctuations in income inequality are larger than those of consumption inequality. Moreover, income and consumption inequalities among rural households are higher compared to urban families. Finally, we show that within-group inequality, the inequality due to circumstances, can explain a considerable portion of the divergence observed between income and consumption inequalities.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"284 - 303"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48794024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public debt and fiscal sustainability: the cyclically adjusted balance in the case of Lebanon","authors":"Kassim M. Dakhlallah","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1773076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1773076","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Lebanon’s high debt-to-GDP ratio and persistent overall budget deficit expose the entire financial system to vulnerability. Unless the country generates enough revenue to meet its gross financing needs, the prospect of borrowing more remains strong. Given the complexity of the Lebanese economy and debt structure, the formulation of fiscal and monetary policy is difficult and costly. Hence, policymakers are continuously confronted with difficult choices and must select the choice that is the least destructive. The choice between short-term economic stability and medium-term fiscal sustainability is a clear example of the dilemmas that confront policymakers. In addition, procyclicality and its repercussions on economic growth and the lack of responses to fiscal needs are matters of significant importance for public debt and fiscal sustainability. Hence, this study provides an in-depth analysis of the difficulties facing the Lebanese economy as it tries to sustain its public debt and the overall fiscal deficit. The study calculates the cyclically adjusted balance to analyze the appropriateness of fiscal policy and to assess the role of the automatic stabilizers. Additionally, the study employs a multivariate vector autoregression to forecast the variables in the simple debt model and to identify the impulses needed from various endogenous shocks. The derived results demonstrate that fiscal policy is predominately procyclical, that policymakers risked short-term economic stability for the sake of medium-term fiscal sustainability, and that unless the government adjusts its fiscal behavior, triggers automatic stabilizers, and negotiates a better deal with resident lenders, the economy will further deteriorate.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"340 - 359"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1773076","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48135257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system","authors":"Viviane Y. Naimy, Ruba Kattan","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1770564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770564","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper applies the econometric Chow test to determine the impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system for the period 2011–2017. Structural breaks in the performance of selected sample GCC banks, Saudi, UAE, and Qatar banks, are tested upon the occurrence of the recent oil price decline in 2014 for different aspects of bank performance: profitability, liquidity, credit quality, and capitalization. While Qatar banks are found to be resilient showing continuous performance over time, the Saudi banks are found to be significantly impacted by the decline experiencing negative structural breaks at the credit quality level but positive breaks at the capitalization level. However, UAE banks are found to have experienced negative breaks at the profitability, credit quality, and capitalization levels. The paper provides GCC banks with valuable insights about what bank aspects could be negatively impacted in the event of negative oil price shocks and what aspects could help mitigate the impact. This helps banks introduce necessary changes and preventive actions to better absorb future shocks.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"326 - 339"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770564","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45819360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lucia Hanmer, Eliana Rubiano, Julieth Santamaria, Diana J. Arango
{"title":"How does poverty differ among refugees? Taking a gender lens to the data on Syrian refugees in Jordan","authors":"Lucia Hanmer, Eliana Rubiano, Julieth Santamaria, Diana J. Arango","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1753995","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1753995","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Many reports document the hardships experienced by refugees, highlighting that women and children are a highly vulnerable group. However, empirical analysis of how gender inequality impacts poverty among refugees is limited. We combine registration data for Syrian refugees in Jordan collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees with data from its Home Visit surveys to analyze income poverty rates among refugee households. We use an approach that captures the disruption to household structures that results from displacement to evaluate the poverty impacts, comparing refugee households with male and female principal applicants (PAs). We find that distinguishing between different types of principal applicant households is important. Half of the female PAs for nonnuclear households live below the poverty line compared to only one-fifth of male PAs for nonnuclear household. PAs who are widows and widowers also face high poverty risks. Households that have formed because of the unpredictable dynamics of forced displacement, such as unaccompanied children and single caregivers, emerge as extremely vulnerable groups. We show that differences in household composition and individual attributes of male and female PAs are not the only factors driving increased poverty risk. Gender-specific barriers which prevent women accessing labor markets are also a factor. Our findings show that gender inequality amplifies the poverty experienced by a significant number of refugees. Our approach can be used to help policy-makers design more effective programs of assistance and find durable solutions for displaced populations.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"139 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Female unemployment in Lebanon: a time series analysis","authors":"Casto Martín Montero Kuscevic","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1756097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1756097","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This research investigates the relationship between output and unemployment for Lebanon for the post-civil war period. Surprisingly, our results show that unemployment is not contemporaneously affected by changes in gross domestic product (i.e. no Okun’s Law), but only after a lag; however, in the long-run total unemployment and male unemployment are inversely related to changes in output. A puzzling result is the unresponsiveness of female unemployment to GDP both in the short run and in the long-run. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, we try to shed some lights to explain this irregularity.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"268 - 283"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1756097","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46965746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Job creation or labor absorption? An analysis of private sector job growth in Egypt","authors":"R. Assaad, C. Krafft, Shaimaa Yassin","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1753978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1753978","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Creating jobs, especially good jobs, is one of the greatest challenges facing Egypt. This paper investigates the nature of job growth in Egypt, including the firm, industry, and worker characteristics that are related to job growth. Using data from Egypt’s establishment censuses linked to various firm and labor surveys, we examine job growth in private sector establishments over 1996–2017. We find that job growth has primarily followed a labor absorption paradigm, with job growth unrelated to productivity and highest for firms with more informal employment.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"177 - 207"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1753978","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43711551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}