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Occupational Choice and Investments in Human Capital in Informal Economies 非正式经济中职业选择与人力资本投资
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.1515/BEJM-2020-0024
Lucila Berniell
{"title":"Occupational Choice and Investments in Human Capital in Informal Economies","authors":"Lucila Berniell","doi":"10.1515/BEJM-2020-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/BEJM-2020-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Informality is pervasive in many developing countries and it can affect occupational and educational decisions. Cross-country data shows that the rate of entrepreneurship as well as the gap between the skill premium for entrepreneurs and for workers increase with the size of the informal economy. Also, in countries with larger informal sectors the fraction of high-skilled individuals that choose to be entrepreneurs is larger. To explain these facts, I develop a model economy with human capital investments, occupational choice and an informal sector, in which the investment in human capital improves the efficiency of labor as well as managerial skills, and the technology to produce goods exhibits capital-skill complementarity. Model predictions can account for cross-country evidence and also shed light on the mechanisms at work when the level of informality in the economy increases. In particular, a higher level of informality discourages human capital investments for workers while it incentivizes these investments for the case of some managers, mostly informal but talented.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133092298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Optimal Industrial Policies in a Two-Sector-R&D Economy 两部门研发经济中的最优产业政策
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-11-23 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2019-0197
G. Sorek
{"title":"Optimal Industrial Policies in a Two-Sector-R&D Economy","authors":"G. Sorek","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2019-0197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2019-0197","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study characterizes welfare-enhancing industrial policies in a two-sector-R&D economy that incorporates both vertical and horizontal innovation. It elaborates on current welfare analyses of two-sector-R&D economies along two lines. First, it explores the welfare properties of non-drastic innovations whereas current analyses are confined to drastic innovations. It is shown that while the endogenously chosen size of drastic innovations is insufficient compared to social optimum, the size of non-drastic innovations may be excessive compared with the welfare maximizing one. Second, it explores welfare-enhancing policies designed to restrict innovators’ market power, whereas current policy analyses focus on R&D and market-entry subsidies. The welfare-maximizing policies presented here combine proper limitations on innovators’ market power along with a corresponding production tax (or subsidy). The limitations over innovators’ market power are aimed to support the optimal innovation size, and the corresponding production tax is set to support the optimal product variety span.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117165327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Macroeconomic Effects of Shadow Banking Panics 影子银行恐慌的宏观经济影响
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3798390
J. Poeschl
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Shadow Banking Panics","authors":"J. Poeschl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3798390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3798390","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the interaction between occasionally binding financial constraints in the traditional (retail) banking sector and banking panics in the shadow banking sector. Shadow banking panics occur when retail banks choose not to roll over their lending to shadow banks. Occasionally binding financial constraints of retail banks increase the likelihood of and amplify boom-bust dynamics around such shadow banking panics. The model can quantitatively match the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial variables around the US financial crisis. We quantify the impact of wholesale funding market interventions akin to those implemented by the Federal Reserve in 2008, finding that they reduced the fall in output by about half a percentage point. The timing of this intervention matters: an intervention before the banking panic would have been more effective and might even have avoided the panic.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"147B 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121240138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Trend Growth and Robust Monetary Policy 趋势增长和稳健的货币政策
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3628405
Kohei Hasui
{"title":"Trend Growth and Robust Monetary Policy","authors":"Kohei Hasui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3628405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628405","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent monetary policy studies have shown that the trend productivity growth has non-trivial implications for monetary policy. This paper investigates how trend growth alters the effect of model uncertainty on macroeconomic fluctuations by introducing a robust control problem. We show that an increase in trend growth reduces the effect of the central bank’s model uncertainty and, hence, mitigates the large macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, the increase in trend growth contributes to bringing the economy into determinacy regions even if larger model uncertainty exists. These results indicate that trend growth contributes to stabilizing the economy in terms of both variance and determinacy when model uncertainty exists.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128539638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns 通过早期和严格的封锁保护生命和生计
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560434.001
Francesca Caselli, F. Grigoli, D. Sandri
{"title":"Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns","authors":"Francesca Caselli, F. Grigoli, D. Sandri","doi":"10.5089/9781513560434.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560434.001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted severely because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. Furthermore, we show that lockdowns substantially reduced COVID-19 cases, especially if they were introduced early in a country’s epidemic. This implies that, despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114759597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 39
Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy 货币政策的不对称效应
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2020-0084
Tzu-Yu Lin
{"title":"Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy","authors":"Tzu-Yu Lin","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2020-0084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2020-0084","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we first use a structural vector autoregression model to examine whether the US economy responds asymmetrically to expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. The empirical results show that monetary policy has significant asymmetric effects on output and investment. To provide an explanation of such asymmetries, we consider a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which collateral constraints are occasionally binding over the business cycle. The nonlinear DSGE model is able to match the empirical findings that macroeconomic aggregates react asymmetrically to positive and negative monetary policy shocks.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134122482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Charge-offs, Defaults and the Financial Accelerator 冲销、违约和金融加速器
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3711768
Christopher M. Gunn, Alok Johri, M. Letendre
{"title":"Charge-offs, Defaults and the Financial Accelerator","authors":"Christopher M. Gunn, Alok Johri, M. Letendre","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3711768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3711768","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract U.S. banks countercyclically vary the ratio of charge-offs to defaulted loans (COD) and the standard deviation of COD is roughly 15 times that of GDP. We show that canonical financial accelerator models cannot explain these facts, but introducing stochastic default costs and stochastic risk can potentially resolve the discrepancy. Estimating the augmented model and including both surprise and news shocks reveals that default cost news shocks account for most of the variance of COD. Also, in the many model specifications we work with, default cost news shocks always account for at least 20 percent of the variance of investment, while risk news shocks account for a significant portion of the variation in the credit spread, and around 10 percent of the variation in investment growth. Both news shocks also account for a material amount of the variance of hours and output growth.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115908993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort 在职求职努力的周期性
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-09-10 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2019-0245
Hie Joo Ahn, Ling Shao
{"title":"The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort","authors":"Hie Joo Ahn, Ling Shao","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2019-0245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2019-0245","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the U.S. using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that the probability of an employed worker to engage in OJS is statistically significantly countercyclical, while time spent on OJS of an employed job seeker is weakly countercyclical. The fear of job loss, employment uncertainty, and workers’ financial situations is crucial in the job search decision of employed individuals. The results imply that the precautionary motive might be the key driver of the countercyclicality in OJS intensity.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121647076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Entry Costs, Task Variety, and Skill Flexibility: A Simple Theory of (Top) Income Skewness 入门成本、任务多样性和技能灵活性:收入偏倚的一个简单理论
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.1515/BEJM-2019-0221
Manoj Atolia, Yoshinori Kurokawa
{"title":"Entry Costs, Task Variety, and Skill Flexibility: A Simple Theory of (Top) Income Skewness","authors":"Manoj Atolia, Yoshinori Kurokawa","doi":"10.1515/BEJM-2019-0221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/BEJM-2019-0221","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper develops a simple model that provides a unified explanation for both an increase in below-top skewness and a much larger increase in within-top skewness of wage income distribution. It relies on a single mechanism based on the fixed costs of firm entry. A decrease in entry costs increases the variety of goods/tasks and thus the demand for higher-skilled workers who are more flexible in handling a variety of tasks, which increases both types of skewness. Differences in flexibility are modeled as differences in the fixed labor setup costs required to handle a given number of tasks. Our numerical experiments in a calibrated model show that a decrease in entry costs – entry deregulation – can be a quantitatively important source of both the increase in below-top skewness and the much larger increase in within-top skewness observed in the U.S. Moreover, the experiments imply that the observed differences in entry deregulation can cause significant differences in the top skewness across countries that have similar technological change. This can provide an answer to Piketty and Saez’s (2006) question: Why have top wages surged in English speaking countries in recent decades but not in continental Europe or Japan, which have gone through similar technological change?","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124711465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Home Production and Leisure during the COVID-19 Recession COVID-19经济衰退期间的家庭生产和休闲
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2020-08-10 DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.025
Oksana Leukhina, Zhixiu Yu
{"title":"Home Production and Leisure during the COVID-19 Recession","authors":"Oksana Leukhina, Zhixiu Yu","doi":"10.20955/wp.2020.025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2020.025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Between the months of February and April of 2020, average weekly market hours in the U.S. dropped by 6.25, meanwhile 36% of workers reported switching to remote work arrangements. In this paper, we examine implications of these changes for the time allocation of different households, and on aggregate. We estimate that home production activity increased by 2.65 h a week, or 42.4% of lost market hours, due to the drop in market work and rise in remote work. The monthly value of home production increased by $39.65 billion – that is 13.55% of the concurrent $292.61 billion drop in monthly GDP. Although market hours declined the most for single, less educated individuals, the lost market hours were absorbed into home production the most by married individuals with children. Adding on the impact of school closures, our estimate of weekly home production hours increases by as much as 4.92 h. The increase in the value of monthly home production between February and April updates to $73.57 billion. We also report the estimated impact of labor markets and telecommuting on home production for each month in 2020.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121832017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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