{"title":"Rethinking Asset Bubbles: Reflections for the Age of Institutional Investing","authors":"Bradley Jones","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3083036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3083036","url":null,"abstract":"Upon surveying a contentious topic that has occasioned much debate, this paper offers reflections on the likelihood that asset booms, bubbles and busts continue posing a threat to financial stability despite financial markets becoming increasingly informationally-efficient, complete, and heavily influenced by sophisticated (presumably rational) investors. Rather than arise from widespread behavioral irrationality as is commonly assumed, this paper suggests procyclical mispricings stand to increasingly reflect institutional frictions — benchmarking, incentive and organizational design pressures — in the rapidly-growing institutional investment industry. These influences may make bubble riding ‘rational,’ or at the very least, discourage institutions from leaning against the wind. Moreover, even in the absence of leverage, systemic risk could increasingly be shaped by large shifts in risk premia owing to the rational herding motivations of institutional investors. To the extent procyclicality owes less to ‘irrational exuberance’ and more to performance evaluation practices, traditional countercyclical policy measures could be of reduced efficacy unless reinforced by reforms to institutional incentives.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131400948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inventory Behavior and Financial Constraints: Theory and Evidence","authors":"S. Dasgupta, Erica X. N. Li, D. Yan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2395018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2395018","url":null,"abstract":"Financially constrained firms hold more inventory than do financially unconstrained firms and also show more volatility in inventory holdings. To understand why, we model the interaction of financial constraints, capacity constraints, and the response of production and inventory to cost shocks. We develop several implications as to how financial constraints affect the inventory response to cost shocks of constrained firms relative to unconstrained firms, which cannot be derived from any of a host of other ways in which two groups of firms are differentiated in our model. We find consistent results when we take these implications to the real data.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125196414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pedro Barroso, Jurij-Andrei Reichenecker, M. Menichetti
{"title":"Hedging with an Edge: Parametric Currency Overlay","authors":"Pedro Barroso, Jurij-Andrei Reichenecker, M. Menichetti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3020981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3020981","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an optimal currency hedging strategy for global equity investors using currency value, carry, and momentum to proxy for expected currency returns. A benchmark risk constraint ensures the overlay closely mimics a fully hedged portfolio. We compare this with naïve and alternative hedges in a demanding out-of-sample test, with transaction and rebalancing costs and margin requirements. Other hedging methods generally reduce risk but at a cost. Some tend to short currencies with high returns and all incur substantial costs with frictions, mostly margin requirements and equity rebalancing costs. The proposed strategy uses predictable returns to reduce this cost. It produces a statistically significant 17% gain in Sharpe ratio and an annualized Jensen-α of 0.93% versus a fully hedged benchmark. Notably, most of the implementation costs of the strategy would be incurred by the benchmark anyway. This reduces its marginal cost and highlights a specific synergy of integrating hedging with speculation. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134124603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Model-Free Tail Risk Index and Its Return Predictability","authors":"Jinji Hao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2826577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2826577","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a novel framework -- the cumulant generating function (cgf) of the market risk on the positive half real line -- for studying the market risk which can be replicated by cross sections of index option prices in a model-free manner. Within this unifying framework, independent of the underlying price process, the VIX index measures the height of the cgf at one while the SVIX index proposed by Martin (2016) measures the convexity of the cgf over the interval [0, 2]. A tail index of the market risk, TIX, is proposed based on this framework which measures the tail decay rate of the distribution of market risk revealing the market perceptions of extreme risk. The innovation in TIX strongly predicts market returns both in and out of sample, with monthly R2 statistics of 3.33% and 6.15%, respectively, outperforming the popular return predictors in the literature.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126065931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Knowledge Gap and Debt Choices: Opportunities and Threats to Student Access and Continuing University Education","authors":"K. Motlhabane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3031464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3031464","url":null,"abstract":"Studies have cited students’ inability to settle debts as a legitimate cause for continued university unrest and conflicts with institutions’ management. Financial knowledge gap, result in students making uninformed debt choices and then struggle to manage it effectively. Universities were forced to write-off students’ irrecoverable debt and their tuition fees increase proposals in 2016 resulting in countrywide students “#fees must fall” rampage. Rather than addressing the threats symptoms, the study aimed to diagnose some root opportunities hindrances to students’ education access and continuation. The present pilot study implemented and then assessed the impact of a custom-designed non-examinable tutorial intervention on students’ financial knowledge and debt perceptions. In pre-test (N=60), primary data was collected using questionnaires from conveniently selected, final-year financial management registered students. Students were then exposed to a two day non-examinable tutorial addressing the cost of debt and how to evaluate it; followed by a two-month period of knowledge experimentation. Thereafter a post-test assessment was conducted [N=55]. Compared to previous studies, this project found statistically significant improvements over pre-test in students’ ability to make informed decisions, debt evaluation and risk aversion. These improvements suggest the need to broaden financial tutorials to the wider student community. Financial skills can improve students’ graduation chances and the prospects of being responsible adults. The research can contribute to policy prescripts governing credit provision and inclusion of topical issues in tutorials curriculum to improve students’ personal finance and debt management skill.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117175272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle in Indonesia","authors":"Aldrin Herwany, Yayan Satyakti, Wardhana Wardhana","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3030518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3030518","url":null,"abstract":"This paper scrutinizes the impact of monetary policy in emerging markets. We developed DSGE model Business Cycle Model incorporate to stock market modeling to prove the hypothesized the effectiveness of monetary policy on stock market liquidity in emerging economies such as Indonesia.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117308903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Smart Money Effect Revisited: Is There a 'Smart Money' Effect During Recessions?","authors":"Yimeng Chen, T. Haque, Shan Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3021552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3021552","url":null,"abstract":"Moskowitz (2000) and Glode (2011), among others, document that US mutual funds achieve higher alphas in recessions compared to non-recessions. Kacpercyk et al (2014) provide a different result that those US funds that perform well in recessions also perform well in non-recessions. We show that the smart money algorithm can be used to identify these funds, particularly small funds, and that the expenses they charge are not too high. This simple algorithm, based on past flows is consistent with Berk and Green (2004) and Berk and Binsbergen (2015) in that flows are indicative of managerial skill and that in equilibrium, after-expense alphas should be equal to zero.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123485099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effective Activism – Sponsor Identity in Environmental and Social Proposal Filing","authors":"Jiaying Wei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3021424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3021424","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies effective shareholder activism by analyzing sponsor identity of environmental and social (ES) proposals over the period 1997 to 2015. When the proposal is sponsored by sustainable responsible funds (SRIs) or pension funds, the probability of success and the percentage of vote in favor at the annual general meeting (AGM) are higher than sponsored by other parties, after controlling for the proposal issue type. SRIs and pension funds also obtain significant positive abnormal return on the date of proposal filing. The successful proposals sponsored by these parties generate higher long-term abnormal return and operating performance than other successful proposals. The findings suggest that more effective activism concerning ES issues can be achieved by strategically choosing the sponsor with more expertise and past experience, such as SRIs or pension funds. The findings also support the view that effective ES activism brings value to the target and the optimistic view of the activism is reflected in the share price.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129575831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Short-Termism and the Asset Allocation Decisions of Defined Benefit Pension Plans","authors":"Garence Staraci, Kyriakos Chousakos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3003624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3003624","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the presence of short-termism in the asset allocation decisions of U.S. private defined benefit pension plans. We document an inverse U-shaped relationship between a plan’s allocation to fixed income securities and its funding ratio, centered on a 80% funding ratio, and show that the relationship is stronger among plans sponsored by companies in financial distress, and whose CFOs have accumulated a substantial amount of risky pension benefits. We then theoretically demonstrate that this relationship emerges from loss-averse preferences of the plan’s investment committee (supervised by the CFO), with respect to a 80% funding ratio. We additionally show that these preferences encompass both risk-shifting and risk-management behaviors, and as such allow us to explain two empirical features of U.S. defined benefit plans: a collapse in their average funding ratios over the past three decades, and the more recent shift toward fixed income securities in their allocation decisions. Assimilating these loss-averse preferences with short-termism, we conclude that plans without such preferences achieve a significant improvement in their funding ratios over the long-run.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124269987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Momentum, Reversals, and other Puzzles in Fama-MacBeth Cross-Sectional Regressions","authors":"M. Kamstra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2947340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2947340","url":null,"abstract":"The existence of reversals and momentum in equity returns has challenged proponents of efficient markets for over 30 years. Although explanations for momentum profits based on cross-sectional mean return dispersion have been proposed, evidence of time-series autocorrelation from Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions persists without any good risk/return explanation. In this paper I show that common implementations of the Fama-MacBeth procedure will yield upward biased estimates of time-series autocorrelation coefficients. Even in absence of autocorrelation, the bias is strictly positive, leading to apparent momentum when there is, in fact, none. This biased implementation of the Fama-MacBeth procedure has found its way into a great many other studies and may, similarly, lead to apparent effects when there are none. I outline conditions under which this bias occurs and prove the existence of bias under these conditions. I also provide a Monte Carlo simulation showing the magnitude of the bias, I demonstrate the impact of this bias with reference to published results in the literature, and I introduce a new test for misspecification of an asset pricing model. Additionally, I suggest and explore simple fixes for this bias. Some variation of a firm fixed-effects model is appropriate to correct for this bias in applications using the Fama-MacBeth method.","PeriodicalId":430498,"journal":{"name":"Australasian Finance & Banking Conferences","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123505551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}