2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive)最新文献

Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences 财政调整:决定因素和宏观经济后果

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004331

Manmohan S. Kumar, D. Leigh, A. Plekhanov

引用次数: 68

If You Want to Cut, Cut, Don’t Talk: The Role of Formal Targets in Israel’s Fiscal Consolidation Efforts, 1985-2007 如果你想削减，削减，不要说:正式目标在以色列财政整顿努力中的作用，1985-2007

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004374

Adi Brender

{"title":"If You Want to Cut, Cut, Don’t Talk: The Role of Formal Targets in Israel’s Fiscal Consolidation Efforts, 1985-2007","authors":"Adi Brender","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2004374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2004374","url":null,"abstract":"Each of the seven governments in Israel since the successful 1985 stabilization program stated a commitment to reducing the deficit, easing the public debt burden and curtailing the share of public expenditure in GDP. Beginning in 1992, formal multi-year declining deficit ceilings were also adopted. However, only two periods during the last 22 years, 1985-92 and 2003-06, can be characterized as episodes of sustainable consolidation, and one of them preceded the introduction of the ceilings. The formal targets were often missed, and they underwent frequent revisions, including each time there was a cabinet change. Furthermore, in the 10 years that followed the introduction of the ceilings, little progress, if any, was made toward fiscal consolidation. In light of these developments, this paper concludes that the contribution of fiscal rules to fiscal consolidation or policy credibility in Israel was minor, at most. We also find that the two successful consolidation episodes followed programs that included - at the outset - specific measures sufficient to cut expenditure substantially over the short and medium terms. This absolved future policymakers from the political responsibility for adopting the specific measures needed to meet the formal aggregate targets set by their predecessors. The key lesson, at least in the Israeli context, is that setting formal macro-fiscal targets for future governments is not an effective pre-commitment measure; credibility requires the current policymaker to take all the \"heat\" and implement the specific - even if gradual - measures that will lower expenditure over the medium term. The pessimistic finding is that such measures were adopted only at times of crisis and after less comprehensive policy changes failed. The optimistic observation is that once implemented, these measures appear to survive cabinet changes and economic fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":423887,"journal":{"name":"2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114139589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

What Affects Fiscal Consolidation? – Some Evidence from OECD Countries 什么影响财政整顿?-来自经合组织国家的一些证据

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004317

Stéphanie Guichard, M. Kennedy, E. Wurzel, C. André

{"title":"What Affects Fiscal Consolidation? – Some Evidence from OECD Countries","authors":"Stéphanie Guichard, M. Kennedy, E. Wurzel, C. André","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2004317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2004317","url":null,"abstract":"Stephanie Guichard, Michael Kennedy, Eckhard Wurzel and Christophe Andre examine the circumstances most commonly related to successful fiscal consolidation. Data are drawn from a dataset covering twenty-four OECD countries since 1978. Based on improvement in the cyclically-adjusted primary balances (CAPB), they detect eighty-five consolidation episodes. First the paper presents descriptive evidence that initial conditions play a major role. In particular, the more negative the CAPB, the larger the ensuing consolidation. In the vast majority of cases, consolidations did not last long and involved only modest gains, and revenue increases accounted for a large fraction of the average improvement. In the second part of the paper, the authors deploy regression analysis to identify a number of macroeconomic conditions that were effective in triggering and sustaining consolidations. The initial budget balance is statistically significant in explaining the starting point, the size and the duration of the adjustment process, while the magnitude and the probability of success of the consolidation programme are affected by cuts in some expenditure items.","PeriodicalId":423887,"journal":{"name":"2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124649624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Public Debt Dynamics in Selected OECD Countries: The Role of Fiscal Stabilisation and Monetary Policy 选定经合组织国家的公共债务动态:财政稳定和货币政策的作用

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004300

Harri Hasko

{"title":"Public Debt Dynamics in Selected OECD Countries: The Role of Fiscal Stabilisation and Monetary Policy","authors":"Harri Hasko","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2004300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2004300","url":null,"abstract":"Shocks to monetary and fiscal policy have played a major role in public debt developments since the mid 1970s. According to the applied VAR approach, together these shocks explained, on average, about half of the forecast error variation in the debt to GDP ratio while the share of shocks to GDP growth was close to 30 percent. Instead, shocks to inflation and the debt ratio itself played in most cases a minor role. However, the inflation shocks were vital in initiating the public debt problems as the increase in actual inflation and particularly the persistence of high inflation expectations in the 1980s led to a prolonged period of high real interest rates. This gave rise to ‘some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic’ which aggravated debt problems. In most countries fiscal policy has aimed at correcting the deterioration of fiscal balances, but the progress has in most cases been slow and delayed. Nevertheless, all individual country VARs are stable in the period under consideration. Finally, contrary to general beliefs, in the global financial markets of present day inflation makes debt problems worse through its adverse impact on interest rates.","PeriodicalId":423887,"journal":{"name":"2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134186134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 12

Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Councils and All that: Commitment Devices, Signaling Tools or Smokescreens? 财政规则、财政委员会和所有这些:承诺工具、信号工具还是烟幕?

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004371

Xavier Debrun, Manmohan S. Kumar

引用次数: 116

The Lack of Fiscal Consolidation in an Inflationary Economy: Uruguay 1970-2006 通货膨胀经济中缺乏财政整顿:乌拉圭1970-2006

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004369

L. Vicente, Gerardo Marcelo Licandro Ferrando

{"title":"The Lack of Fiscal Consolidation in an Inflationary Economy: Uruguay 1970-2006","authors":"L. Vicente, Gerardo Marcelo Licandro Ferrando","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2004369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2004369","url":null,"abstract":"Different from the papers presented in this session, this one analyzes the lack of fiscal consolidation within a framework of tensions between the objectives of consolidation and price stability. By using a model of time inconsistency with fiscal objectives and a Government’s budget constraint similar to the Uruguayan one, it is shown that the existence of nominal debt in domestic currency and the possibility of reducing real expenditure generate incentives in addition to seignorage for the fiscal use of inflation, avoiding a more lasting consolidation process. By analyzing Uruguayan data between 1970 and 2006 it is evidenced how the real adjustment of Primary Expenditure through inflation has been the key in the fiscal stabilization episodes of the past 35 years. Through the analysis of episodes, correlations and OLS regressions, it is shown that inflation acceleration has played a major role in improving the fiscal balance owing to its effect on real expenditure. Nonetheless, such improvements have been transitory, while real expenditure has bounced back once the adjustment phase was over. This paper offers an institutional reading, since it suggests that the setting of inflation objectives by the Government together with a bias against fiscal consolidation may result in a relative high inflation level.","PeriodicalId":423887,"journal":{"name":"2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128166463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing Overall Fiscal Effort in Eca, 1995-2004 评估1995-2004年非洲经委会的总体财政努力

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2007-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2004333

Emilia Skrok, Aristomène Varoudakis

引用次数: 0

Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in Europe – New Evidence 欧洲扩张性财政整顿——新证据

2007 Fiscal Policy: Current Issues & Challenges Conference (Archive) Pub Date : 2006-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004360

António Afonso

引用次数: 138