{"title":"Foreign Banks: Trends, Impact and Financial Stability","authors":"S. Claessens, N. V. Horen","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1977446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1977446","url":null,"abstract":"Using a new, comprehensive database on bank ownership, identifying also the home country of foreign banks, for 137 countries over the period 1995-2009, this paper provides an overview of foreign bank activity and its impact of financial development and stability. We document substantial increases in foreign bank presence, especially in emerging markets and developing countries, but which slowed down dramatically with the onset of the global crisis. Over time, banks from many more home countries have become active as investors, with several emerging countries becoming important exporters. Investment, however, remains mostly regional. In terms of loans, deposits and profits, current market shares of foreign banks average 20 percent in OECD countries and close to 50 percent in developing countries and emerging markets. Foreign banks differ from domestic banks in key balance sheet variables, notably having higher capital and more liquidity, but lower profitability. Cross-country analysis shows that only in developing countries is foreign bank presence negatively correlated with domestic credit creation. Finally, using panel regressions, we show that during the global crisis foreign banks reduced credit more compared to domestic banks, but not when dominant in the host country.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114485415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Conditional Probabilities for Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk","authors":"A. Lucas, B. Schwaab, Xin Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1971705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1971705","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a novel empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional failure for Euro area sovereigns. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t copula which captures all the salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS protection against sovereign default, as well as dynamic volatilities and correlations to ensure that failure dependence can increase in times of stress. We apply the framework to Euro area sovereign CDS spreads from 2008 to mid-2011. Our results reveal significant time-variation in risk dependence and considerable spill-over effects in the likelihood of sovereign failures. We also investigate distress dependence around a key policy announcement by Euro area heads of state on May 9, 2010, and demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order time-varying moments during times of crisis for the correct assessment of interacting risks.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"155 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115905214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Allen, A. Kramadibrata, R. Powell, Abhay K. Singh
{"title":"Tail Risk for Australian Emerging Market Entities","authors":"D. Allen, A. Kramadibrata, R. Powell, Abhay K. Singh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1967299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1967299","url":null,"abstract":"Whilst the Australian economy is widely considered to have fared better than many of its global counterparts during the Global Financial Crisis, there was nonetheless extreme volatility experienced in Australian financial markets. To understand the extent to which emerging Australia entities were impacted by these extreme events as compared to established entities, this paper compares entities comprising the Emerging Markets Index (EMCOX) to established entities comprising the S&P/ASX 200 Index using four risk metrics. The first two are Value at Risk (VaR) and Distance to Default (DD), which are traditional measures of market and credit risk. The other two focuses on extreme risk in the tail of the distribution and include Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and Conditional Distance to Default (CDD), the latter metric being unique to the authors, and which applies CVaR techniques to default measurement. We apply these measures both prior to and during the GFC, and find that Emerging Market shares show higher risk for all metrics used, the spread between the emerging and established portfolios narrows during the GFC period and that the default risk spread between the two portfolios is greatest in the tail of the distribution. This information can be important to both investors and lenders in determining share or loan portfolio mix in extreme economic circumstances. Classification-JEL:","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125137722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exporting and Productivity: The Effects of Multi-Market and Multi-Product Export Entry","authors":"J. Masso, Priit Vahter","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1966518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1966518","url":null,"abstract":"Most of the empirical studies on the micro-level effects of exporting on productivity pay little attention to the potentially heterogeneous effects of the different modes of export market entry. We study how productivity of firms is affected by export entry simultaneously into several markets or export entry with several export products, and compare these to the entry into fewer markets or the entry with fewer products. Our analysis is based on detailed export data from firms in Estonia, disaggregated for each firm by export markets and individual products. We show that the early stage entry into several export markets or with several products leads to higher growth in productivity, compared with entry into only one foreign market or with only one product. This implies significant benefits from experimentation with different markets and different products.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125793918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Determinants of Foreign Investment Size: The Role of Parent Firm and National Distance","authors":"Nan Zhou, Jiawen Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1946957","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946957","url":null,"abstract":"Investment size has been overlooked by scholars who study foreign direct investment (FDI). This overlook hinders our understanding of globalization, because the study of investment size will shed light on how firms of different sizes develop and participate in the current trend of globalization, and on how entry barriers influence the pattern of FDI. To fill in the gap in the literature, we develop an economic model of foreign investment size. From this model, we predict the determinants of foreign investment size: it is positively related to parent firm size, while it follows an inverted U-shape relationship with national distances. Moreover, parent firm size and national distance also interact with each other to influence investment size. Our empirical analysis of Japanese FDI data from 1985 to 2003 supports our arguments.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"491 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115302673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"중국의 발전전략 전환과 권역별 경제동향 (The Transformation of the Mode of Economic Development and Regional Economic Trends in China)","authors":"Wook Chae, C. Lee, Furong Jin","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2322640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2322640","url":null,"abstract":"After the global financial crisis, China is accelerating the transition of economic development model. The core of that strategy is the balanced growth: shift from the export-oriented growth to the growth balanced with consumption and shift from the coastal areas-oriented growth to the growth balanced with the inland areas. Meanwhile, China is quickening the pace of industrial upgrading from low value-added to high value-added. Under the circumstances, urbanization focusing on urban agglomeration, industrial transfer from the coastal areas to the inland areas, and the development of high technology industries and strategic new industries are initiating actively. This seminar proceedings is the output of \"The 1st China's Regional and Provincial Research Group International Conference\" held in November 2010. The proceedings covers many issues which concern the strategic changes of regional economic development, the present situation and trends of regional economic development, and policy suggestions to further strengthen the economic relationship between Korea and various regions of China.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117135369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bad Banks Choking Good Banks: Simulating Balance Sheet Contagion","authors":"Stephen Kinsella, Saed Khalil","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1939211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1939211","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the propagation of contagion through banks’ balance sheets in a two-country model. We simulate an increase in non-performing loans in one bank, and study the effects on other banks and the macro-economy of each country. We show that credit crunches destabilize each economy in the short run and in the long run reduce potential output. We quantify this loss.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127755337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interdependence of Banking and Stock Market Return in the Gulf Cooperation Council (Preliminary Analysis)","authors":"Abdulfatah Alsameen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1913051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1913051","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates an empirical analysis into the relationship between return of banking sector and stock market return in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). A number of researches argue that financial sectors in the GCC countries are dominated by banking systems which means stock market as a component of financial system interrelated with banking market. The results indicate a positive relationship between banking industry in each GCC country and both GCC banking and stock market return in each GCC state, while negative relationship is existence with composite GCC stock market return. This paper uses quantitative methods based on regression analysis to examine the relation between stock market and banking industry in each GCC country for the period of Jan 2007-April 2011.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129180743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Multinationals Beat Down Developing Countries’ Export Prices? The Impact of FDI on Net Barter Terms of Trade","authors":"K. Wacker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1938829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1938829","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the economic relationship between foreign direct investment to developing countries and the export prices of the latter, measured by terms of trade. It is first shown that economic theory suggests such a relationship for various reasons but is inconclusive about the direction of the effect. To address this open issue empirically, I analyze data on more than 50 developing countries throughout the period 1980-2008 using dynamic panel data methods. The results show that multinational corporations, measured by data on foreign direct investment, had an economically relevant and statistically significant positive impact on developing countries’ net barter terms of trade. A higher level of education in the developing country fosters this effect.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121481331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign Exchange Market Structure, Players and Evolution","authors":"M. King, C. Osler, Dagfinn Rime","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1935858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1935858","url":null,"abstract":"Electronic trading has transformed foreign exchange markets over the past decade, and the pace of innovation only accelerates. This formerly opaque market is now fairly transparent and transaction costs are only a fraction of their former level. Entirely new agents have joined the fray, including retail and high-frequency traders, while foreign exchange trading volumes have tripled. Market concentration among dealers has risen reflecting the heavy investments in technology. Undeterred, some new non-bank market participants have begun to make markets, challenging the traditional foreign exchange dealers on their own turf. This paper outlines the players in this market and the structure of their interactions. It also presents new evidence on how that structure has changed over the past two decades. Throughout, it highlights issues relevant to exchange rate modelling.","PeriodicalId":420844,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Economic & Financial Issues (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130878721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}