URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad最新文献

{"title":"Cultura de inteligencia y sociedad","authors":"Daniel Sansó-rubert, Julia Pulido-Gragera","doi":"10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5738","url":null,"abstract":"La doctrina identifica mayoritariamente la cultura de inteligencia como una política de sensibilización pública, que tiene por objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de la sociedad en lo que respecta a los objetivos y las funciones de los Servicios de Inteligencia. La motivación común es que todos los actores sociales adquieran conciencia de que tienen un papel activo en la salvaguarda de la seguridad, y que solo la suma de esfuerzos puede garantizar la seguridad y la defensa de los valores democráticos y constitucionales compartidos. Los objetivos prioritarios serían, por tanto, dar a conocer la labor de los servicios de inteligencia, su funcionamiento, la vocación orgánica de servicio, la legislación que los regulan y su contribución fundamental para garantizar la seguridad del Estado. En definitiva, trasladar a la ciudadanía que la inteligencia es cosa de todos y que demanda complicidad y reconocimiento social. \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000The doctrine largely identifies intelligence culture as a public awareness policy, which aims to improve society's understanding of the objectives and functions of the Intelligence Services. The common motivation is that all social actors become aware that they have an active role in safeguarding security, and that only the sum of efforts can guarantee security and the defense of shared democratic and constitutional values. The priority objectives would be, therefore, to publicize the work of the intelligence services, their operation, the organic vocation of service, the legislation that regulates it, and its fundamental contribution to guaranteeing the security of the State. In short, convey to the public that intelligence is everyone's business and that it demands complicity and social recognition.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79371934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediciendo el crimen en ciudades intermedias: un modelo de “machine learning” en Bucaramanga, Colombia","authors":"Juan David Gelvez Ferreira, María-Paula Nieto-Rodríguez, Carlos A. Rocha-Ruíz","doi":"10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5395","url":null,"abstract":"El uso de tecnología para prevenir el crimen es una práctica cada vez más frecuente. Sin embargo, la evidencia se ha concentrado en ciudades principales, que cuentan con gran cantidad de datos y mejores capacidades locales. El objetivo de esta investigación es presentar los resultados de un modelo de “machine learning” para predecir el delito en Bucaramanga, una ciudad intermedia de Colombia. Se utilizó el procesamiento de señales para grafos y una adaptación al caso del modelo de vectorización de texto TF-IDF. Se identificó que los mejores resultados en la predicción del crimen se dieron con modelos espaciales de grafos por semanas. Además, encontramos evidencia de que existen diversas dificultades de predicción, en dependencia de la periodicidad del modelo. La mejor opción posible (con los datos disponibles) es una periodicidad semanal. El mejor modelo encontrado es un KNN de clasificación, que alcanza un 59 % de exhaustividad(recall) y más de 60 % de exactitud (accuracy.). Concluimosque los modelos de predicción del delito constituyen una herramienta útil para construir estrategias de prevención en ciudades principales; sin embargo, existen limitaciones para su aplicación en ciudades intermedias, que cuentan con poca información. \u0000Abstract \u0000The use of technology to prevent and respond to citizen security challenges is increasingly frequent. However, empirical evidence has been concentrated in major cities with large amounts of data and local authorities' strong capacities. Therefore, this investigation aims to capture a series of policy recommendations based on a machine learning crime prediction model in an intermediate city in Colombia, Bucaramanga (department of Santander). The model used signal processing for graphs and an adaptation of the TF-IDF text vectorization model to the space-time case, for each of the cities’ neighborhoods. The results show that the best crime prediction outcomes were obtained when using the models with spatial relationships of graphs by weeks. Evidence of the difficulty in predictions based on the periodicity of the model is found. The best possible prediction (with available data) is weekly prediction. In addition, the best model found was a KNN classification model, reaching 59 % of recall and more than 60 % of accuracy. We concluded that crime prediction models are a helpful tool for constructing prevention strategies in major cities; however, there are limitations to its application in intermediate cities and rural areas in Colombia, which have little statistical information and few technical capabilities.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81918317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inteligencia Nacional Argentina: funcionalidad y presupuesto. Sus impactos en la cultura de inteligencia (1989-2022)","authors":"Jorge Gabriel Vitti","doi":"10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5388","url":null,"abstract":"La inteligencia, una herramienta indispensable para la toma de decisiones estratégicas, no es visualizada por amplios sectores de la sociedad argentina como una actividad con la importancia y orientación citada. Este artículo explora algunos de los basamentos más importantes de la ausencia de la cultura de inteligencia, en un período significativo por la gravedad de los sucesos que ocurrieron en él, para determinar la existencia de bases normativas y su correcta aplicación en situaciones concretas. Se analizan dos de los aspectos más significativos de la cultura de inteligencia, revisando tanto la doctrina como las regulaciones, su aplicación e impacto: su función pública, íntimamente relacionada con la percepción de la utilidad y eficacia de sus servicios; y la asignación y el uso de gastos de presupuesto reservados. Finalmente, se presentan conclusiones y estrategias para la construcción de una cultura de inteligencia nacional, en el marco de un estado de derecho. \u0000Abstract \u0000Intelligence is an indispensable tool for making strategic decisions. However, it is not perceived as such by broad sectors of Argentinian society. This work explores some of the most important foundations of the absence of intelligence culture, in a relevant period due to several serious events, to determine the existence of normative bases and their correct application in specific situations. To this end, the most significant aspects of that vision are explored, delving into both the doctrine and the regulations, as well as their application and impact: its public function, closely related to the perception of the usefulness and effectiveness of its services; and the allocation and use of earmarked budget expenses. Finally, conclusions and strategies for the construction of a culture of national intelligence, within the framework of a rule of law are presented.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83249490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enemigos internos e institucionalidad de inteligencia fuerte: León Febres Cordero y Rafael Correa Delgado","authors":"Lorena Yael Piedra Cobo","doi":"10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.34.2022.5434","url":null,"abstract":"En este artículo se describen y comparan la estructura y la directiva de trabajo de la función de inteligencia en Ecuador en las gestiones presidenciales de León Febres Cordero y Rafael Correa Delgado. Al comparar dos periodos que institucionalizaron fuertemente la función de inteligencia ecuatoriana, el objetivo es dar cuenta sistemáticamente de sus similitudes y diferencias. A través de una metodología de base comparativa, limitada por la clasificación de las fuentes primarias, característica del estudio de los sistemas de inteligencia, se trabaja desde una perspectiva institucionalista, que supera la esfera normativa e incluye el análisis de prácticas no declaradas. Se concluye que los periodos analizados coinciden en una fuerte capacidad de determinación de la agenda por parte del ejecutivo, que por distintos motivos se enfocó en enemigos internos. Además, bajo un marco legal incapaz de establecer controles horizontales a la actividad. Por otro lado, las diferencias encontradas residen en el aspecto económico y en el beneficiario directo de la agenda de trabajo. \u0000Abstract \u0000The following analysis describes and compares the structure and mainframe directions of the intelligence function in Ecuador during the presidential administrations of Leon Febres Cordero and Rafael Correa Delgado. By comparing these two periods that strongly institutionalized the Ecuadorian intelligence function, the objective is to systematically account for their similarities and differences. Through a comparative-based methodology, limited by the classification of primary sources, characteristic in the study of intelligence systems, an institutionalist perspective is used, which goes beyond the normative sphere, and includes the analysis of non-declared practices. It is concluded that those analyzed periods coincide in a strong ability to determine the agenda by the executive branch, that for different reasons focused on internal enemies. In addition, in a legal framework incapable of establishing horizontal controls on the activity. On the other hand, the differences found reside in the economic aspect and in the direct beneficiary of the work agenda.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81551516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Offsetting to Emulation: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of Russia’s Internal Balancing Strategies","authors":"Augusto C. Dall’Agnol","doi":"10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5365","url":null,"abstract":"In 2008, Russia began to implement its largest military reform since the creation of the Red Army in 1918. Previous attempts at reforms in 1992, 1997, and 2003 did not result in fundamental transformations to the country’s military. Why was the 2008 military reform successful while others were not? This article uses the comparative-historical method to identify the causal mechanisms between Russia’s level of external threat, state capacity, and internal balancing strategies adopted since 1991. It advances Neoclassical Realism’s systemic and unit-level variables by building on the long-established contributions from Strategic Studies and Historical Sociology instead of relying on other International Relations theories. It concludes that the success of Russia’s military reforms in the post-Cold War period depended on the simultaneous existence of three conditions: the possibility of disrupting strategic stability, its ability to extract and mobilize societal resources, and the presence of some event of proven ineffectiveness. Under scenarios in which only one or two of these conditions were present, Russia carried out only partial military reforms. The article sheds light on three often-neglected drivers of Russia’s military reform by Western analysts: its enduring emphasis on interstate competition, strategic stability, and mid-to-high intensity conventional warfare. \u0000 ","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85206778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trata de menores con fines de explotación sexual: estrategias de prevención en la región de Bogotá","authors":"Paula-Cristina Díaz-Cruz, Carolina Rodríguez-Lizarralde","doi":"10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5303","url":null,"abstract":"La trata de personas es un crimen transnacional que se concentra sobre todo en la modalidad de explotación sexual. Sus principales víctimas son mujeres y niñas. El objetivo del artículo es presentar las estrategias de prevención frente a la trata de niñas, niños y adolescentes que se identifican en el accionar de las organizaciones de la sociedad civil en la región de Bogotá, Colombia. A partir de las técnicas de entrevista y encuesta, se consolida información en una matriz de Índice de Capacidades Organizacionales (ICO) y se hace una medición frente a las estrategias identificadas desde organizacionales nacionales e internacionales, y los desafíos que se desprenden para abordar el fenómeno. Se concluye que el desconocimiento de las formas en que opera el mercado de la trata de personas y la falta de estrategias que asuman los impactos de estas prácticas mercantiles y lucrativas dejan rezagadas a las organizaciones ante un delito que surge de las desigualdades socioeconómicas estructurales y que se transforma constantemente. \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000Human trafficking is a transnational crime that is mainly concentrated in the form of sexual exploitation. Most of the victims are women and girls. The objective of the article is to identify the prevention strategies against trafficking of children and adolescents identified in the actions of civil society organizations in the Bogotá region, Colombia. Based on the methods of the interview and the survey, with the consolidation of the information in an Organizational Capabilities Index matrix, a measurement is made, according to the strategies of national and international organizations, and the challenges for understanding the phenomenon. It is concluded that ignorance of the ways in which the human trafficking market operates and the lack of strategies that assume the impacts of these commercial and lucrative practices leaves organizations behind in the face of a crime that arises from structural socioeconomic inequalities and is constantly changing.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80186879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sistematización de detenciones policiales a población senegalesa en la ciudad de Buenos Aires, desde una perspectiva espacial","authors":"F. Abiuso, Gisele Kleidermacher","doi":"10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5364","url":null,"abstract":"En este artículo proponemos analizar las interacciones entre las fuerzas de seguridad y la población de origen senegalés que tienen lugar en la vía pública en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA). La investigación se realiza a partir de la sistematización de datos cuantitativos provenientes de diversos informes, así como de entrevistas realizadas a personas de la comunidad, dada la relevancia de recuperar su propia voz y percepción. Los datos dan cuenta de situaciones de violencia institucional que pesan con intensidad en la comunidad de origen senegalés, como parte de relaciones de racialización que se producen con mayor fuerza en dos espacios de la ciudad. \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000In this article, we propose to analyze the interactions between the security forces and the Senegalese population that take place on public roads in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA). The methodology includes the systematization of quantitative data from reports from various institutions, as well as interviews with people from the community since it is relevant to recover their own voices and perception. The results reveal situations of institutional violence that weigh heavily on the community of Senegalese origin as part of racialization relations that occur with greater force in two areas of the city.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87695334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flujos financieros ilícitos, lavado de dinero y política","authors":"Katiuska King, Juan Belikow","doi":"10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5442","url":null,"abstract":"El lavado de dinero es uno de los componentes de los flujos financieros ilícitos (FFI) que han sido definidos en las agendas multilaterales de desarrollo. Si bien el lavado es conocido y se considera recurrente en los temas de seguridad, el financiamiento de actividades ilícitas es menos analizado, en parte, por la menor disponibilidad de información. Este artículo analiza el lavado desde la perspectiva de la economía política internacional. Para ello, se consideran tres casos específicos que permiten distinguir las diferencias en las distribuciones de los recursos, no solo financieros. Se encuentra que la política juega un rol fundamental en su control y que existen tratamientos visiblemente diferenciados entre el Sur y el Norte globales. \u0000Abstract \u0000Money laundering is one of the components of illicit financial flows (IFFs) that have been defined in multilateral development agendas. While laundering is both well-known and recurrent in security issues, the financing issues of illicit activities are less analyzed, in part, because of the limited availability of information. This article analyzes laundering from an international political economy perspective. It considers three specific cases to distinguish the differences in the distribution of resources, not only financial. It is found that politics plays a fundamental role in its control and that there are visibly differentiated treatments between the global South and North.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84342882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La estación espacial china en la Patagonia: una aproximación desde el derecho internacional","authors":"Luis-Fernando Castillo-Argañarás","doi":"10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5298","url":null,"abstract":"El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la cooperación internacional entre Argentina y China sobre la utilización de la estación espacial construida en la Patagonia, en el marco de una asociación estratégica integral. Se realiza un análisis documental, mediante la recolección de datos y una estrategia cualitativa basada en la inducción y deducción. Se concluye que los acuerdos que establecen la estación espacial en el marco de la asociación estratégica son “tratados desiguales”, de la misma naturaleza que los firmados por China en el siglo XIX y principios del XX. \u0000  \u0000Abstract \u0000The objective of this article is to analyze the international cooperation between Argentina and China in relation to the use of the space station built in Patagonia, within the framework of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Documentary analysis is carried out by collecting data and implementing a qualitative strategy based on induction and deduction. It is concluded that the agreements that establish the Space Station within the framework of the strategic association are “unequal treaties” of the same nature as those signed by China in the 19th and early 20th centuries.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80839337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La defensa como herramienta de acople: el caso de Argentina frente a Estados Unidos (2015-2019)","authors":"Ezequiel Magnani","doi":"10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5262","url":null,"abstract":"Los estudios sobre la defensa nacional en Argentina hasta el momento no han incluido en su agenda los aportes de la “escuela de la autonomía”. Considerando que dicha tradición plantea distintas formas que tienen los Estados de vincularse con Estados Unidos (acople/resistencia) y que la defensa es un ámbito gubernamental que incide en dicha vinculación, el presente artículo tiene un doble objetivo: dar cuenta teóricamente de la forma en la que la política de defensa puede contribuir a una estrategia de acople hacia Estados Unidos, e ilustrar empíricamente dicha relación teórica, a partir del análisis de la política de defensa argentina. Se utiliza una metodología cualitativa, tomando como estudio de caso la política de defensa que llevó adelante Argentina durante el período 2015-2019. Se toma como referencia empírica a tres áreas propias de la defensa nacional: la definición de amenazas, la defensa como herramienta de posicionamiento internacional y la forma en que se realiza la adquisición de capacidades militares. Se concluye que el estudio de la política de defensa argentina (2015-2019) permite afirmar que la defensa nacional puede ser utilizada como una herramienta de acople hacia los Estados Unidos. \u0000AbstractStudies on national defense in Argentina have not addressed the contributions of the “escuela de la autonomía”. Considering that this theoretical tradition proposes different ways in which States can enable links with the United States (bandwagon/resistance) and that defense policy is a governmental area that affects that relationship, the article has a double objective: to inquire theoretically about the way in which defense policy can contribute to a bandwagon strategy towards the Unites States and to illustrate empirically this theoretical relationship from the analysis of the Argentine defense policy. A qualitative methodology is used, taking as a case study the defense policy carried out by Argentina during the period 2015-2019 and taking three areas of national defense as an empirical reference: the definition of threats, defense as an international positioning tool, and the way in which military capabilities are acquired. It is concluded that the study of the Argentine defense policy (2015-2019) indicates that national defense can be used as a bandwagoning tool towards the United States.","PeriodicalId":41674,"journal":{"name":"URVIO-Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87551210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}