{"title":"Arbitrage Risk and Market Efficiency – Applications to Securities Class Actions","authors":"Rajeev R. Bhattacharya, S. O'brien","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2099241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2099241","url":null,"abstract":"Measuring the efficiency of the market for a stock is important for a number of reasons, but such measurements have been widely utilized in securities class action litigation, particularly to justify certification of cases as appropriate for class action treatment. We provide a general methodology to measure the arbitrage risk, which is a negative proxy for the market efficiency, of a stock for any relevant period. We apply this methodology to calculate the arbitrage risk of each U.S. exchange-listed common stock for every calendar year from 1988 to 2010. We find that market efficiency is significantly affected by turnover (negatively), the number of market makers for Nasdaq stocks (negatively), and serial correlation in the Capital Asset Pricing Model of the stock (positively). These findings seem inconsistent with “conventional wisdom” and with the understanding that courts use in applying notions of market efficiency to class certification decisions, but we show that our findings are consistent with economic logic. The relations between market efficiency and market capitalization (positive), bid-ask spread (negative) and institutional ownership (positive) are consistent with conventional wisdom. The impact on market efficiency of the number of securities analysts following a stock and the public float ratio of a stock are of ambiguous significance.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129877150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Retrieving Financial Information in XBRL on the Next-Generation Edgar","authors":"Jianing Fang","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2555784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2555784","url":null,"abstract":"The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has upgraded the old Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system, to the Interactive Data Electronic Applications (IDEA) platform, or the Next-Generation EDGAR (New EDGAR). In January 2009, the SEC issued its final mandate for XBRL adoption and the conversion target dates for all firms. This conversion enables users to retrieve listed companies’ financial statement information at both document level and data element level. This paper reviews the basic concepts of XBRL, reports the current compliance status of the SEC XBRL conversion mandate. The main contribution of this article is to demonstrate how to retrieve data from the New EDGAR and process them with Microsoft Excel 2013.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114489519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Lending Booms, Smart Bankers and Financial Crises","authors":"A. Thakor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2587168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2587168","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a theory that explains why financial crises follow profitable lending booms. When agents exhibit the \"availability heuristic\" and there is a long period of banking profitability, all agents—banks, their investors, and regulators—end up in an \"availability cascade,\" overestimating bankers' risk-management skills and underestimating the probability that observed outcomes are due to good luck. Consequently, banks profitably invest in riskier assets. Subsequently, if a public signal reveals that outcomes are luck-driven, investors withdraw funds, liquidity evaporates, and a crisis ensues. A loan resale market improves liquidity but increases the probability of a crisis.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129554084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Evolution of the Financial Stability Mandate: From its Origins to the Present Day","authors":"G. Toniolo, Eugene N. White","doi":"10.3386/W20844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W20844","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the origins and growth of the Financial Stability Mandate (FSM) to examine why bank supervisors, inside and outside of central banks succeeded or failed to meet their FSM. Three issues inform this study: (1) what drives changes in the FSM, (2) whether supervision should be conducted within the central bank or in independent agencies and (3) whether supervision should be rules- or discretion/principles-based. As histories of bank supervision are few, we focus on the history of six countries where there is sufficient information, three in Europe (England, France, and Italy) and three in the New World (U.S., Canada, and Colombia) to highlight the essential developments in the FSM. While there was a common evolutionary path, the development of FSM in each individual country was determined by how quickly each adapted to changes in the technology of the means of payment and their political economy, including their disposition towards competitive markets and openness to the world economy.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133144923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Regulation of Electronic Money Institutions in the SADC Region: Some Lessons from the EU","authors":"M. Tuba","doi":"10.4314/PELJ.V17I6.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/PELJ.V17I6.02","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses the different approaches adopted for the regulation of payment systems in a variety of legislative instruments by the European Union (EU). It looks in particular at how the institutions that issue new electronic money products are regulated and supervised by the relevant authorities in the EU, in comparison with existing institutions such as banks. It analyses some of the lessons that may be learned by the South African Development Corporation (SADC) from the regulatory approaches for electronic money institutions adopted by the EU. The article asks if the approach adopted by the EU may be useful for the future regulation of electronic money institutions in the SADC. The proliferation of electronic devices that arrived with the invention of the Internet has sparked some regulatory challenges. This development has become global and involves both developed and developing countries, including regions such as the SADC. It is asked if these technological developments should be addressed by means of a concrete regulatory framework while they continue to develop, instead of the regulators waiting to observe and acquaint themselves with the relevant regulatory challenges that underpin the innovations. The EU has attempted to address the anticipated regulatory challenges that came about with the development of electronic money and to align its regulatory approach with other payment systems. This article discusses the regulatory approaches adopted in the EU and provides an overview that the SADC may use in order to adopt an effective regulatory framework for electronic money and the institutions that issue these methods of payment. It analyses both the achievements and the challenges that the EU faced (and continues to face) in developing the regulation of e-money, and recommends some possible approaches derived from the lessons learned.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121195686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interest Rate Derivatives Products and Recent Market Activity in the New Regulatory Framework","authors":"Christopher L. Culp","doi":"10.1002/9781118709207.CH16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118709207.CH16","url":null,"abstract":"Sweeping changes in financial regulation have occurred throughout much of the world following the global credit crisis that began in 2007. Shifts in the regulatory paradigm governing derivatives have been especially dramatic and have already altered the landscape for interest rate derivatives and participants in interest rate derivatives activity. This chapter reviews the products that comprise the global interest rate derivatives market, recent market activity across different products, currencies, and market structures (i.e., exchange-traded interest rate derivatives, non-cleared swaps, and cleared swaps), and the new regulations governing interest rate derivatives in the United States and Europe. The chapter also documents the bifurcation in liquidity for certain non-dollar swaps (especially EUR-denominated swaps) that has arisen as a result of regulatory uncertainties involving the disparate international implementation of recent regulatory changes. A detailed Appendix presents a self-contained overview of the new regulatory framework itself.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116478599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contagion in the Interbank Market: Funding versus Regulatory Constraints","authors":"Oana Georgescu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2271545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2271545","url":null,"abstract":"The contagion potential of mark-to-market accounting rules interacting with regulatory constraints is compared to that of funding constraints in a network of banks. The fair value accounting rules were amended at the height of the crisis to break the vicious link between allegedly irrational market prices and regulatory constraints. Anecdotal evidence from the recent crisis suggests that funding constraints posed more serious problems to banks than regulatory constraints. Simulation results show that, for low equity and high levels of short-term debt relative to liquid asset holdings, the contagion potential arising due to funding constraints is higher than the one due to accounting induced regulatory constraints. Allowing balance sheet valuation to affect the expectations about future insolvency, and implicitly, the roll-over decision of short-term creditors, can mitigate or amplify systemic risk depending on which contagion channel is dominating. These results could be interesting for a regulator wishing to achieve a trade-off between transparency, the main goal of fair value accounting, and financial stability.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"71 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124572764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rules vs Principles Based Financial Regulation","authors":"P. Frantz, Norvald Instefjord","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2561370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2561370","url":null,"abstract":"We study the relative strengths and weaknesses of principles based and rules based systems of regulation. In the principles based systems there is clarity about the regulatory objectives but the process of reverse-engineer these objectives into meaningful compliance at the firm level is ambiguous, whereas in the rules based systems there is clarity about the compliance process but the process of forward-engineer this into regulatory objectives is also ambiguous. The ambiguity leads to social costs, the level of which is influenced by regulatory competition. Regulatory competition leads to a race to the bottom effect which is more harmful under the principles based systems. Regulators applying principles based systems make dramatic changes in the way they regulate faced with regulatory competition, whereas regulators applying rules based systems make less dramatic changes, making principles based regulation less robust than rules based regulation. Firms prefer a rules based system where the cost of ambiguity is borne by society rather than the firms, however, when faced with regulatory competition they are better off in principles based systems if the direct costs to firms is sufficiently small. We discuss these effects in the light of recent observations.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131175358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling the Impact of New Capital Regulations on Bank Profitability","authors":"Vighneswara Swamy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2491397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2491397","url":null,"abstract":"This study models the impact of new capital regulations proposed under Basel III on bank profitability by constructing a stylized representative bank’s financial statements. We show that the higher cost associated with a one-percentage increase in the capital ratio can be recovered by increasing lending spreads. The results indicate that in the case of scheduled commercial banks, one-percentage point increase in capital ratio can be recovered by increasing the bank lending spread by 31 basis points and would go upto an extent of 100 basis points for six-percentage point increase assuming that the risk weighted assets are unchanged. We also provide the estimations for the scenarios of changes in risk weighted assets, changes in return on equity (ROE) and the cost of debt.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122360608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Jump and Variance Risk Premia in the S&P 500","authors":"M. Neumann, Marcel Prokopczuk, Chardin Wese Simen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2461282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2461282","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium. The risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time. Investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia, we are able to explain up to 63% of these variations.","PeriodicalId":414741,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal","volume":"364 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120892192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}