{"title":"Do your analytic models really yield accurate predictions?","authors":"R. Murry","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296865","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296865","url":null,"abstract":"The author documents the analysis of an actual strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) mission and compares the result obtained during the mission with results predicted by availability models. The drawdown (removal of oil) from an oil storage unit at the Sulphur Mines SPR site was started in late 1990 and completed in late 1991. During this period, the facilities were exposed to every climatological extreme occurring on the Louisiana Gulf Coast. A preliminary data analysis revealed that weather caused a higher than expected outage, which was not predicted by the model. Also significant was the down-time resulting from such weather-related shutdowns. The findings of this analysis indicated limitations in the computer model on addressing all events which may result in down-time. However, when actual drawdown factors and down-time events are compared with those included in the computer model, site availability during the decommissioning drawdown was higher than predicted.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124793109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Accelerated environmental stress screening & reliability growth testing of the B-52 infrared camera","authors":"T. Donovan","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296807","url":null,"abstract":"To assure that the final design for the forward looking infrared (FLIR) camera meets the reliability requirements, a specially tailored reliability development growth test (RD/GT) plan has been developed. The author describes the RD/GT plan, how it was developed, its application of accelerated burn-in methods, and its use of methodologies normally associated with environmental stress screening. The RD/GT has two primary objectives: to reduce test time and cost and to provide rapid reliability growth.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122633952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Human reliability database and future systems","authors":"D. Meister","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296843","url":null,"abstract":"The author examines what human reliability (HR) is and what it is supposed to do. He argues that the primary purpose of HR is to predict human performance associated with systems. To predict HR, a quantitative probabilistic error-oriented database must exist. A scheme for such a database is presented.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114352844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Calculating MTBF for modularized fault-trees","authors":"W.G. Scheeweiss","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296854","url":null,"abstract":"It is shown that modularization is very helpful for determining system MTBF (mean time between failures) and/or related parameters such as mean system failure frequency and system MTTR (mean time to repair). An existence theorem for modules presented by R. Ashenhurst (1959) is brought to engineers' attention. Some simple ways to find modules are discussed.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121641115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Total quality management: a journey","authors":"C.N. Stoll, C.F. Zubas","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296872","url":null,"abstract":"The implementation of total quality management (TQM) at the authors' Division is summarized, and lessons learned are presented. Particular attention is given to the TQM start-up process, demonstrating the criticality of management commitment and initial planning. Results to date are discussed.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127589453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NATO R&M standards; blueprint for success","authors":"C. Hockley, G.E. Comer","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296884","url":null,"abstract":"NATO has produced reliability and maintainability standards which member countries have agreed to ratify, adopt, and implement under a standardization agreement, STANAG 4174. The authors describe the NATO, European, and UK standards for R&M and the agencies involved in their production. The importance of these standards in defense equipment programs in the European Community is highlighted, and it is noted that they provide a common basis for greater co-operation in collaborative projects. The use of these standards ensures a common high level of proficiency in R&M programs, and their greater application will enhance the performance of NATO's military equipment.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127925246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Designing for success: reliability technology in the concurrent engineering era","authors":"J. Fragola","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296873","url":null,"abstract":"Research on the applicability of reliability tools and practices to the needs of the design process is discussed. The requirement to streamline the design, development, and approval phases implies that reliability must be considered on an up-front and ongoing basis to reduce significantly the likelihood of catastrophic failures after the fact. Uncertainty is an ever present factor in the design process since the nature of design requires the envelope of experience to be pushed to its limits. It is noted that the key to successful design in the concurrent engineering era is to admit to and characterize the uncertainties to allow a design to be specified which is sufficiently robust. The author discusses principles of design risk analysis and outlines an approach for characterizing uncertainty in a semiquantitative manner such that it is applicable to design reliability analysis.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133372613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Expert systems and strategic testing","authors":"D. C. Brauer","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296813","url":null,"abstract":"It is pointed out that combining strategic planning with expert system technology enables the engineer or manager to define quickly the 'best' or 'optimal' test program for a given product development effort. The expert system makes this happen by using 'expert' knowledge derived from its knowledge base of engineering, marketing, and customer requirements. A working expert system which identifies a baseline test program structure reflecting specific strategy and tactics is depicted.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126177166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"System-effectiveness assessment in offshore field development using life-cycle performance simulation","authors":"R. Ostebo","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296826","url":null,"abstract":"Offshore oil field development is associated with various types of technical uncertainties, i.e., reservoir-related, field-development-related (e.g., cost and schedule overruns), and operations-related. The authors show how the operations-related uncertainty factor can be subject to system-effectiveness assessment using advanced life-cycle performance simulation. The system effectiveness or regularity will impact directly on the revenue stream, as well as the maintenance-related operating costs. Combined with economic and technical assessments, the system-effectiveness analyses provide decision support when a production system is optimized and critical issues to be followed up in later project phases are identified. The nature of these analyses implies application from early field planning into the operational stages of a field development. In contrast to analytical techniques, life-cycle performance simulation provides a means of modelling the performance of any production system, taking into account the effect of reliability, maintenance, operations, etc., on the production stream.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127046488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Communications network reliability analysis approximations and bounds","authors":"K. Murray, A. Kershenbaum, M. Shooman","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1993.296844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1993.296844","url":null,"abstract":"The authors present a number of techniques based on tie-sets and cut-sets for bounding and approximating the 2-terminal reliability of a communications network model, with the knowledge that the 2-terminal reliability problem is NP-complete. Three classes of approximations are treated theoretically and in terms of examples. One method uses all the network cut-sets, but truncates the reliability expansion, leading to upper and lower bounds. Another method chooses subsets of the tie-sets and cut-sets, including the shorter (fewer element) tie-sets and cut-sets, and carries out the entire expansion. The third approximation technique incorporates features of both of the first two methods. The reduced tie-set and cut-set method, although exponential in the number of tie-sets and cut-sets of the network in theory, is polynomial in practice and provides lower and upper bounds of the same order of magnitude in most instances. The combined method has been shown to be polynomial in the number of 1, 2, and 3-edge cut-sets used and to run faster than the reduced tie-set and cut-set method.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":411424,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1993 Proceedings","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128927295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}