{"title":"Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate *","authors":"Y. Han","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.314","url":null,"abstract":"This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"365-390"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64805040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Study on the Impact of the Private Credit Excess on the Credit Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows","authors":"Jong-hee Kim","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.315","url":null,"abstract":"By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries...","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"391-423"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64805109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Empirical Evidence on Government Bond Market Integration in East Asia","authors":"Lian Liu","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2016.20.1.304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2016.20.1.304","url":null,"abstract":"This research intends to investigate the progress made in East Asian bond market integration thus far. Price-based measures (AAD indicator and beta-convergence measure), quantity-based measures and econometric techniques (co-integration test, error correction model based Granger causality test) are employed in the analysis. Even though East Asian government bond markets have become more integrated since 2001, the differentials among the markets still remain significantly high. The bond market integration process seems slow. The convergence of bond markets sped up in 2003 and after the 2008 world financial crisis, implying the important role of government policies in integrating the regional bond markets. East Asian bond market integration may need more government-directed measures.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"37-65"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects Among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea","authors":"I. Taly, Chungyu Park","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2015.19.3.299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2015.19.3.299","url":null,"abstract":"The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"19 1","pages":"275-322"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fractal Structure of the Stock Markets of Leading Asian Countries","authors":"Samet Günay","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2014.18.4.286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2014.18.4.286","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we examined the fractal structure of the Nikkei225, HangSeng, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Straits Times Index of Singapore. Empirical analysis was performed via non-parametric, semi-parametric long memory tests and also fractal dimension calculations. In order to avoid spurious long memory features, besides the Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (DFA), we also used Smith's (2005) modified GPH method. As for fractal dimension calculations, they were conducted via Box-Counting and Variation tests. According to the results, while there is no long memory property in log returns of any index, we found evidence for long memory properties in the volatility of the HangSeng, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Straits Times Index. However, we could not find any sign of long memory in the volatility of Nikkei225 index using either the DFA or modified GPH test. Fractal dimension analysis also demonstrated that all raw index prices have fractal structure properties except for the Nikkei225 index. These findings showed that the Nikkei225 index has the most efficient market properties among these markets.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"367-394"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2014-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Protection of Intellectual Property Rights and Subsidy Policy for Foreign Direct Investment","authors":"Moonsung Kang","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2012.16.2.246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2012.16.2.246","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a theoretical setup for an analysis of strategic relationships inherent to activities of an innovative multinational enterprise (MNE) and a local company in a host country. Additionally, we explore the incentives of the host country's government to provide subsidies to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and to protect outcomes of R&D activities conducted by the MNE. We show that the MNE's commercial interests may collide with local companies’ over protection of IPRs. Therefore, the extent of knowledge spillovers from the MNE to the local company and the magnitude of incentives to the MNE perform a crucial function in determining the optimal policy mix of IPR protection and FDI subsidies of the host country's government.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2012-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Financial Frictions: The Case of Korea","authors":"Yongseung Jung","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2011.15.3.235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2011.15.3.235","url":null,"abstract":"This paper first shows an empirical result of VAR that Korean economy has experienced a severe economic contraction to an exogenous country spread shock. To analyze the effect of alternative monetary policy on the economy, the paper sets up a multi-sector small open economy new Keynesian (NK hereafter) model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between firms and financial intermediaries along the line of Bernanke et al. (1999). It shows that the small economy with financial frictions is more vulnerable to the exogenous shocks such as the foreign exchange rate shock under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. It also shows that the interest rate rule that responds to financial market conditions is better than any other interest rate rules only if it does not react to the exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, an interest rate rule that responds to the exchange rate fluctuations, i.e. the monetary policy under the managed floating exchange rate regime is inferior to the monetary policy rules that do not respond to the exchange rate fluctuations. Finally, it shows that the monetary authority needs to stabilize a narrow price index such as domestic price index rather than a general price index such as consumer price index under the financial friction circumstances.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"85-127"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2011-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decomposition into Tradables and Nontradables and the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Hypothesis of the Real Won-dollar Exchange Rate","authors":"Deockhyun Ryu, Hee-Chae Ko","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2011.15.3.236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2011.15.3.236","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to test the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using the won-dollar real exchange rate and analyze the effect of the decomposition into tradables and non-tradables on the change of the won-dollar real exchange rate. This paper decomposes the CPI-based real exchange rate into two parts according to Engel (1999); one is the relative price of traded goods between the countries, the other is a component that is a weighted difference of the relative price of nontraded-to traded-goods prices in each country. We construct this by comparing the component subsection weights in CPI. The empirical analysis of this paper consists of two parts as follows. First, we conducted a traditional time series analyses of the real exchange rate, tradable and non-tradable parts respectively, thereby testing the PPP hypothesis and other important hypotheses. Secondly, this paper conducted a Mean Squared Error (MSE) analysis to evaluate the relative contribution of tradable and non-tradable parts to the change of real exchange rate. From the time series analysis, it is not guaranteed that the PPP hyThe purpose of this paper is to test the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using the won-dollar real exchange rate and analyze the effect of the decomposition into tradables and non-tradables on the change of the won-dollar real exchange rate. This paper decomposes the CPI-based real exchange rate into two parts according to Engel (1999); one is the relative price of traded goods between the countries, the other is a component that is a weighted difference of the relative price of nontraded-to traded-goods prices in each country. We construct this by comparing the component subsection weights in CPI. The empirical analysis of this paper consists of two parts as follows. First, we conducted a traditional time series analyses of the real exchange rate, tradable and non-tradable parts respectively, thereby testing the PPP hypothesis and other important hypotheses. Secondly, this paper conducted a Mean Squared Error (MSE) analysis to evaluate the relative contribution of tradable and non-tradable parts to the change of real exchange rate. From the time series analysis, it is not guaranteed that the PPP hypothesis hold in the long run. The Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is not either, since the sample size is too small to avoid the 'power problem.' In addition, the result of the Mean Squared Error analyses show that tradable goods are more important in explaining the won-dollar real exchange rate dynamics than that of the non-tradable goods. All in all, the results of this empirical analysis are in contrast with the explanation that if the long-run PPP hypothesis does not hold, it is mainly caused by the transaction cost and the non-tradable goods.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"129-161"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2011-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investigation of Global Imbalances Based on a Gravity Model","authors":"Hyun‐Hoon Lee","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2011.15.2.231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2011.15.2.231","url":null,"abstract":"Using the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, this paper attempts to analyze the size and trend of foreign investment in the U.S. in the form of equities, bonds and bank lending during the period of 2001-2007. In addition, this paper assesses the determinants of foreign investment in the U.S., using the financial gravity model which includes an East Asian dummy as an explanatory variable. The results show that most East Asian countries have invested more in the U.S. than the optimal level suggested by the gravity model. Such an over-investment is more evident in long-term bond investment than in equity investment or bank lending. Thus, the results confirm that global imbalance does exist between East Asian countries and the U.S.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"83-111"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2011-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}