Emerging Themes in Epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Cannons and sparrows II: the enhanced Bernoulli exact method for determining statistical significance and effect size in the meta-analysis of k 2 × 2 tables.","authors":"Lawrence M Paul","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00101-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-021-00101-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The use of meta-analysis to aggregate the results of multiple studies has increased dramatically over the last 40 years. For homogeneous meta-analysis, the Mantel-Haenszel technique has typically been utilized. In such meta-analyses, the effect size across the contributing studies of the meta-analysis differs only by statistical error. If homogeneity cannot be assumed or established, the most popular technique developed to date is the inverse-variance DerSimonian and Laird (DL) technique (DerSimonian and Laird, in Control Clin Trials 7(3):177-88, 1986). However, both of these techniques are based on large sample, asymptotic assumptions. At best, they are approximations especially when the number of cases observed in any cell of the corresponding contingency tables is small.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This research develops an exact, non-parametric test for evaluating statistical significance and a related method for estimating effect size in the meta-analysis of k 2 × 2 tables for any level of heterogeneity as an alternative to the asymptotic techniques. Monte Carlo simulations show that even for large values of heterogeneity, the Enhanced Bernoulli Technique (EBT) is far superior at maintaining the pre-specified level of Type I Error than the DL technique. A fully tested implementation in the R statistical language is freely available from the author. In addition, a second related exact test for estimating the Effect Size was developed and is also freely available.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This research has developed two exact tests for the meta-analysis of dichotomous, categorical data. The EBT technique was strongly superior to the DL technique in maintaining a pre-specified level of Type I Error even at extremely high levels of heterogeneity. As shown, the DL technique demonstrated many large violations of this level. Given the various biases towards finding statistical significance prevalent in epidemiology today, a strong focus on maintaining a pre-specified level of Type I Error would seem critical. In addition, a related exact method for estimating the Effect Size was developed.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8336385/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39272602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Situating agent-based modelling in population health research.","authors":"Eric Silverman, Umberto Gostoli, Stefano Picascia, Jonatan Almagor, Mark McCann, Richard Shaw, Claudio Angione","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00102-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12982-021-00102-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Today's most troublesome population health challenges are often driven by social and environmental determinants, which are difficult to model using traditional epidemiological methods. We agree with those who have argued for the wider adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in taking on these challenges. However, while ABM has been used occasionally in population health, we argue that for ABM to be most effective in the field it should be used as a means for answering questions normally inaccessible to the traditional epidemiological toolkit. In an effort to clearly illustrate the utility of ABM for population health research, and to clear up persistent misunderstandings regarding the method's conceptual underpinnings, we offer a detailed presentation of the core concepts of complex systems theory, and summarise why simulations are essential to the study of complex systems. We then examine the current state of the art in ABM for population health, and propose they are well-suited for the study of the 'wicked' problems in population health, and could make significant contributions to theory and intervention development in these areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325181/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39260919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Standard multiple imputation of survey data didn't perform better than simple substitution in enhancing an administrative dataset: the example of self-rated health in England.","authors":"Frank Popham,&nbsp;Elise Whitley,&nbsp;Oarabile Molaodi,&nbsp;Linsay Gray","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00099-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-021-00099-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Health surveys provide a rich array of information but on relatively small numbers of individuals and evidence suggests that they are becoming less representative as response levels fall. Routinely collected administrative data offer more extensive population coverage but typically comprise fewer health topics. We explore whether data combination and multiple imputation of health variables from survey data is a simple and robust way of generating these variables in the general population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We use the UK Integrated Household Survey and the English 2011 population census both of which included self-rated general health. Setting aside the census self-rated health data we multiply imputed self-rated health responses for the census using the survey data and compared these with the actual census results in 576 unique groups defined by age, sex, housing tenure and geographic region.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Compared with original census data across the groups, multiply imputed proportions of bad or very bad self-rated health were not a markedly better fit than those simply derived from the survey proportions.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>While multiple imputation may have the potential to augment population data with information from surveys, further testing and refinement is required.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12982-021-00099-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39218692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Whatever can go wrong, need not go wrong: Open Quality approach for epidemiology.","authors":"Sandra Alba, Masja Straetemans","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00098-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12982-021-00098-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Quality assurance is one of the most important aspects of an epidemiological study, as its validity is largely determined by data quality. The mounting success of quality management in the industrial sector caused a rapid spread throughout manufacturing industries and beyond. Yet, little has been published so far on quality assurance in epidemiology. In this article we review three models for quality assurance (Juran, Donabedian and ISO 9000) and showcase how these can be brought together in one intuitive, systematic and flexible approach to quality assurance in epidemiology. The resulting Open Quality approach refers back to the three processes identified by Juran (planning, control and verification). During the planning stage, we propose a subdivision of the study process in a set of steps and a definition of quality attributes corresponding to activities in that step as suggested by the ISO approach. We refer to the Donabedian model to determine the level at which the control/monitoring should take place-structure, processes or outcomes. Along with an overview of the Open Quality approach we propose an Open Quality tool to support the definition of quality attributes, failure modes, preventive strategies, verification activities, and corrective actions, which form the backbone of the Open Quality approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8285770/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39193845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Women's voices on social media: the advent of feminist epidemiology?","authors":"Céline Miani, Yudit Namer","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00097-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12982-021-00097-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Social media have in recent years challenged the way in which research questions are formulated in epidemiology and medicine, and in particular when it comes to women's health. They have contributed to the emergence of 'new' public health topics (e.g. gynaecological and obstetric violence, long-Covid), the unearthing of testimonials of medical injustice, and in some cases, the creation of new evidence and changes in medical practice.</p><p><strong>Main text: </strong>From a theoretical and methodological perspective, we observe two powerful mechanisms at play on social media, which can facilitate the implementation of feminist epidemiological research and address so-called anti-feminist bias: social media as a 'third' space and the power of groups. Social media posts can be seen as inhabiting a third space, akin to what is said off the record or in-between doors, at the end of a therapy session. Researchers somehow miss the opportunity to use the third spaces that people occupy. Similarly, another existing space that researchers are seldom interested in are peer-groups. Peer-groups are the ideal terrain to generate bottom-up research priorities. To some extent, their on-line versions provide a safe and emancipatory space, accessible, transnational, and inclusive. We would argue that this could bring feminist epidemiology to scale.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Given the emancipatory power of social media, we propose recommendations and practical implications for leveraging the potential of online-sourced feminist epidemiology at different stages of the research process (from design to dissemination), and for increasing synergies between researchers and the community. We emphasise that attention should be paid to patriarchal sociocultural contexts and power dynamics, the mitigation of risks for political recuperation and stigmatisation, and the co-production of respectful discourse on studied populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8206893/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39238837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Birth weight and childhood obesity: effect modification by residence and household wealth.","authors":"Helen Andriani","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00096-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-021-00096-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>There are both genetic and environmental factors which contribute to a child's chances of being obese. When low birth weight (LBW) has been specifically evaluated relative to its association with childhood obesity, the results have produced conflicting findings. This study aims to describe the relationship between birth weight and childhood obesity and investigate the influence that residence and household wealth has on this relationship.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>I performed a secondary analysis on the 2013 Riskesdas (or Basic Health Research), a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of the Indonesian population. Height, weight, information regarding child's birth weight, and basic characteristics of the study population were collected from parents with children aged 0 to 5 years (n = 63,237) in 2013. The exposure was child's birth weight and the outcomes were child's current weight, BMI z-score, and obesity. Data were analyzed by using multiple linear regression and multiple logistic regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>I found a significant increase in the weight, BMI z-score, and risk of childhood obesity to be associated with LBW. LBW children in rural area were associated with higher BMI z-score (mean ± standard error: 1.44 ± 0.02) and higher odds (odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 7.46 (6.77-8.23)) of obesity than those in urban area. LBW children from low class families were associated with higher BMI z-score (1.79 ± 0.04) and had higher odds (14.79 (12.47-17.54)) of obesity than those from middle class and wealthy families.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Effective prevention and intervention to childhood obesity as early as possible are imperative. As far as this study was concerned, efforts, policies, and targets are required to reduce the prevalence of LBW. Children born of LBW, who live in a rural area and from low income families, should be emphatically intervened as early as possible.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12982-021-00096-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38970235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Practical strategies for handling breakdown of multiple imputation procedures.","authors":"Cattram D Nguyen, John B Carlin, Katherine J Lee","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00095-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12982-021-00095-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Multiple imputation is a recommended method for handling incomplete data problems. One of the barriers to its successful use is the breakdown of the multiple imputation procedure, often due to numerical problems with the algorithms used within the imputation process. These problems frequently occur when imputation models contain large numbers of variables, especially with the popular approach of multivariate imputation by chained equations. This paper describes common causes of failure of the imputation procedure including perfect prediction and collinearity, focusing on issues when using Stata software. We outline a number of strategies for addressing these issues, including imputation of composite variables instead of individual components, introducing prior information and changing the form of the imputation model. These strategies are illustrated using a case study based on data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8017730/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25539738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A cohort study of survival following discharge from hospital in rural Tanzanian children using linked data of admissions with community-based demographic surveillance.","authors":"Oscar Mukasa,&nbsp;Honorati Masanja,&nbsp;Don DeSavigny,&nbsp;Joanna Schellenberg","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00094-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-021-00094-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>To illustrate the public health potential of linking individual bedside data with community-based household data in a poor rural setting, we estimated excess pediatric mortality risk after discharge from St Francis Designated District Hospital in Ifakara, Tanzania.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Linked data from demographic and clinical surveillance were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 5 years, by age group and cause of admission. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between March 2003 and March 2007, demographic surveillance included 28,910 children aged 0 to 5 years and among them 831 (3%) were admitted at least once to the district hospital. From all the children under the demographic surveillance 57,880 person years and 1381 deaths were observed in 24 months of follow up. Survivors of hospital discharge aged 0-5 years were almost two times more likely to die than children of the same age in the community who had not been admitted (RR = 1.9, P < 0.01, 95% CI 1.6, 2.4). Amongst children who had been admitted, mortality rate within a year was highest in infants (93 per 1000 person years) and amongst those admitted due to pneumonia and diarrhoea (97 and 85 per 1000 person years respectively). Those who lived 75 km or further from the district hospital, amongst children who were admitted and survived discharge from hospital, had a three times greater chance of dying within one year compared to those living within 25 km (adjusted HR 3.23, 95% CI 1.54,6.75). The probability of surviving the first 30 days post hospitalization was 94.4% [95% CI 94.4, 94.9], compared to 98.8% [95% CI 97.199.5] in non-hospitalized children of the same age in the commuity.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study illustrates the potential of linking health related data from facility and household levels. Our results suggest that families may need additional support post hospitalization.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12982-021-00094-4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25492039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors associated with age-disparate sexual partnerships among males and females in South Africa: a multinomial analysis of the 2012 national population-based household survey data.","authors":"Musawenkosi Mabaso, Lungelo Mlangeni, Lehlogonolo Makola, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Inbarani Naidoo, Yogandra Naidoo, Buyisile Chibi, Khangelani Zuma, Leickness Simbayi","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00093-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12982-021-00093-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In South Africa, age-disparate to sexual relationships where the age difference between partners is 5 years or greater is an important contributor to the spread of HIV. However, little is known about the predictors of age-disparate sexual relationships. This study investigates factors associated with age-disparate sexual relationships among males and females in South Africa.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This analysis used the 2012 nationally representative population-based household survey conducted using multi-stage stratified cluster sampling design. Multivariate multinomial stepwise logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with age-disparate sexual relationships.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of 15,717 participants, who responded to the question on age-disparate sexual relationships, 62% males versus 58.5% females had partners within 5 years older or younger, 34.7% of males versus 2.7% of females had partners at least 5 years younger and 3.3% of males versus 38.8% of females had partners at least 5 years older. Among both males and females predictors of age-disparate sexual relationships were education, employment, socioeconomic status, locality type, age at sexual debut, condom use at last sexual act and HIV status while race was also an additional predictor for among females. Including unprotected sex and risk of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women with sexual partners 5 years older their age.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study suggest that there is a need for reprioritizing the combination of behavioural and structural interventions to address risky sexual behaviours, unprotected sex, poverty, limited education and gender inequitable norms related to age-disparate sexual relationships and HIV.</p>","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12982-021-00093-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25467510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ensuring Emerging Themes in Epidemiology's continued success.","authors":"Steven S Coughlin","doi":"10.1186/s12982-021-00092-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-021-00092-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39896,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Themes in Epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s12982-021-00092-6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38869240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}