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On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data 利用磁体间和日月潮码资料预报区域即将发生的地震活动
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-07-24 DOI: 10.4236/ojer.2015.43010
S. Mavrodiev, L. Pekevski, Giorgi Kikuashvili, E. Botev, P. Getsov, G. Mardirossian, G. Sotirov, D. Teodossiev
{"title":"On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data","authors":"S. Mavrodiev, L. Pekevski, Giorgi Kikuashvili, E. Botev, P. Getsov, G. Mardirossian, G. Sotirov, D. Teodossiev","doi":"10.4236/ojer.2015.43010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2015.43010","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by \u0000using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods \u0000around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For \u0000analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector \u0000components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun \u0000storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor \u0000signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and \u0000previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic “when, regional” \u0000precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times \u0000of “predicted” and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the \u0000“predicted” earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger \u0000than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability \u0000of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, \u0000PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, \u0000L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) \u0000project. The steps of program for solving the “when, where and how” earthquake prediction problem \u0000are shortly described.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"5 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132733126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Radiative transfer model for contaminated slabs : experimental validations 污染板的辐射传递模型:实验验证
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-07-15 DOI: 10.5194/TCD-9-5137-2015
F. Andrieu, F. Schmidt, B. Schmitt, S. Dout'e, O. Brissaud
{"title":"Radiative transfer model for contaminated slabs : experimental validations","authors":"F. Andrieu, F. Schmidt, B. Schmitt, S. Dout'e, O. Brissaud","doi":"10.5194/TCD-9-5137-2015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/TCD-9-5137-2015","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a set of spectro-goniometric measurements of different water ice samples and the comparison with an approximated radiative transfer model. The experiments were done using the spectro-radiogoniometer described in Brissaud et al. (2004). The radiative transfer model assumes an isotropization of the flux after the second interface and is fully described in Andrieu et al. (2015). Two kind of experiments were conducted. First, the specular spot was closely investigated, at high angular resolution, at the wavelength of $1.5,mbox{mu m}$, where ice behaves as a very absorbing media. Second, the bidirectional reflectance was sampled at various geometries, including low phase angles on 61 wavelengths ranging from $0.8,mbox{mu m}$ to $2.0,mbox{mu m}$. \u0000In order to validate the model, we made a qualitative test to demonstrate the relative isotropization of the flux. We also conducted quantitative assessments by using a bayesian inversion method in order to estimate the parameters (e.g. sample thickness, surface roughness) from the radiative measurements only. A simple comparison between the retrieved parameters and the direct independent measurements allowed us to validate the model. \u0000We developed an innovative bayesian inversion approach to quantitatively estimate the uncertainties on the parameters avoiding the usual slow Monte Carlo approach. First we built lookup tables, and then searched the best fits and calculated a posteriori density probability functions. The results show that the model is able to reproduce the spectral behavior of water ice slabs, as well as the specular spot. In addition, the different parameters of the model are compatible with independent measurements.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"31 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132604941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
NATIONAL REPORT FOR THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF GEODESY OF THE INTERNATIONAL UNION OF GEODESY AND GEOPHYSICS 2007-2010 国际大地测量与地球物理联合会2007-2010年国际大地测量协会国家报告
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.2205/2015IUGG-RU-IAG
V. Savinykh, V. Kaftan, Z. Malkin, G. Pobedinsky, I. Stoliarov, R. Sermiagin, Leonid Zotov, V. Gorshkov, N. Shestakov, G. Steblov, P. Dokukin, A. Ustinov
{"title":"NATIONAL REPORT FOR THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF GEODESY OF THE INTERNATIONAL UNION OF GEODESY AND GEOPHYSICS 2007-2010","authors":"V. Savinykh, V. Kaftan, Z. Malkin, G. Pobedinsky, I. Stoliarov, R. Sermiagin, Leonid Zotov, V. Gorshkov, N. Shestakov, G. Steblov, P. Dokukin, A. Ustinov","doi":"10.2205/2015IUGG-RU-IAG","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2205/2015IUGG-RU-IAG","url":null,"abstract":"In this National Report are given major results of researches conducted by Russian geodesists in 2015-2018 on the topics of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). This report is prepared by the Section of Geodesy of the National Geophysical Committee of Russia. In the report prepared for the XXVII General Assembly of IUGG (Canada, Montreal, 8-18 July 2019), the results of principal researches in geodesy, geodynamics, gravimetry, in the studies of geodetic reference frame creation and development, Earth's shape and gravity field, Earth's rotation, geodetic theory, its application and some other directions are briefly described. For some objective reasons not all results obtained by Russian scientists on the problems of geodesy are included in the report.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"295 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133805030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chandler wobble: Stochastic and deterministic dynamics 钱德勒摆动:随机和确定性动力学
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-06-09 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-42408-8_15
Alejandro Jenkins
{"title":"Chandler wobble: Stochastic and deterministic dynamics","authors":"Alejandro Jenkins","doi":"10.1007/978-3-319-42408-8_15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42408-8_15","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122615531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Potential of Continuous, Local Atomic Clock Measurements for Earthquake Prediction and Volcanology 连续的局部原子钟测量在地震预测和火山学中的潜力
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-06-09 DOI: 10.1051/EPJCONF/20159504009
Mihai Bondarescu, R. Bondarescu, P. Jetzer, A. Lundgren
{"title":"The Potential of Continuous, Local Atomic Clock Measurements for Earthquake Prediction and Volcanology","authors":"Mihai Bondarescu, R. Bondarescu, P. Jetzer, A. Lundgren","doi":"10.1051/EPJCONF/20159504009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/EPJCONF/20159504009","url":null,"abstract":"Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with existing technology. In this proceeding, we point out that atomic clocks have the potential to not only map the sea level surface on continents, but also look at variations of the geoid as a function of time with unprecedented timing resolution. The local time series of the geoid has a plethora of applications. These include potential improvement in the predictions of earthquakes and volcanoes, and closer monitoring of ground uplift in areas where hydraulic fracturing is performed.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123922832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century 21世纪观测到的类似卡灵顿的地磁风暴
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-05-26 DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2015017
C. Cid, E. Saiz, A. Guerrero, J. Palacios, Y. Cerrato
{"title":"A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century","authors":"C. Cid, E. Saiz, A. Guerrero, J. Palacios, Y. Cerrato","doi":"10.1051/swsc/2015017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2015017","url":null,"abstract":"In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the \"Carrington-like\" event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs), and (c) the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"1660 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129328616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 40
Seepage flow-stability analysis of the riverbank of Saigon river due to river water level fluctuation 西贡河水位波动下河堤渗流稳定性分析
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-05-25 DOI: 10.21660/2015.15.4178
A. Oya, H. Bui, N. Hiraoka, M. Fujimoto, R. Fukagawa
{"title":"Seepage flow-stability analysis of the riverbank of Saigon river due to river water level fluctuation","authors":"A. Oya, H. Bui, N. Hiraoka, M. Fujimoto, R. Fukagawa","doi":"10.21660/2015.15.4178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21660/2015.15.4178","url":null,"abstract":"The Saigon River, which flows through the center of Ho Chi Minh City, is of critical importance for the development of the city as forms as the main water supply and drainage channel for the city. In recent years, riverbank erosion and failures have become more frequent along the Saigon River, causing flooding and damage to infrastructures near the river. A field investigation and numerical study has been undertaken by our research group to identify factors affecting the riverbank failure. In this paper, field investigation results obtained from multiple investigation points on the Saigon River are presented, followed by a comprehensive coupled finite element analysis of riverbank stability when subjected to river water level fluctuations. The river water level fluctuation has been identified as one of the main factors affecting the riverbank failure, i.e. removal of the balancing hydraulic forces acting on the riverbank during water drawdown.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"165 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133837211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
The International Mass Loading Service 国际散装装货服务公司
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-02-28 DOI: 10.1007/1345_2015_218
L. Petrov
{"title":"The International Mass Loading Service","authors":"L. Petrov","doi":"10.1007/1345_2015_218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/1345_2015_218","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114079006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 37
Randomness and Earth climate variability 随机性与地球气候变率
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-02-16 DOI: 10.1142/S0219477516500061
M. Levinshtein, V. Dergachev, A. Dmitriev, P. M. Shmakov
{"title":"Randomness and Earth climate variability","authors":"M. Levinshtein, V. Dergachev, A. Dmitriev, P. M. Shmakov","doi":"10.1142/S0219477516500061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219477516500061","url":null,"abstract":"Paleo-Sciences including palaeoclimatology and palaeoecology have accumulated numerous records related to climatic changes. The researchers have usually tried to identify periodic and quasi-periodic processes in these paleoscientific records. In this paper, we show that this analysis is incomplete. As follows from our results, random processes, namely processes with a single-time-constant (noise with a Lorentzian noise spectrum), play a very important and, perhaps, a decisive role in numerous natural phenomena. For several of very important natural phenomena the characteristic time constants are very similar and equal to (5-8)x10^3 years. However, this value is not universal. For example, the spectral density fluctuations of the atmospheric radiocarbon 14C are characterized by a Lorentzian with time constant 300 years. The frequency dependence of spectral density fluctuations for benthic 18O records contains two Lorentzians with time constans 8000 years and > 105 years.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128145783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A porosity-based Biot model for acoustic waves in snow 基于孔隙度的雪中声波Biot模型
arXiv: Geophysics Pub Date : 2015-02-04 DOI: 10.3189/2015JoG15J040
R. Sidler
{"title":"A porosity-based Biot model for acoustic waves in snow","authors":"R. Sidler","doi":"10.3189/2015JoG15J040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J040","url":null,"abstract":"Phase velocities and attenuation in snow can not be explained by the widely used elastic or viscoelastic models for acoustic wave propagation. Instead, Biot's model of wave propagation in porous materials should be used. However, the application of Biot's model is complicated by the large property space of the underlying porous material. Here the properties of ice and air as well as empirical relationships are used to define the properties of snow as a function of porosity. Based on these relations, phase velocities and plane wave attenuation of shear- and compressional-waves as functions of porosity or density are predicted. For light snow the peculiarity was found that the velocity of the first compressional wave is lower than the second compressional wave that is commonly referred to as the \"slow\" wave. The reversal of the velocities comes with an increase of attenuation for the first compressional wave. This is in line with the common observation that sound is strongly absorbed in light snow. The results have important implications for the use of acoustic waves to evaluate snow properties and to numerically simulate wave propagation in snow.","PeriodicalId":390991,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: Geophysics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121526589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
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