{"title":"Mathematics of the Pandemic","authors":"M. Murty, V. Murty","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_16","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133114211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Logistic Growth Model with Logistically Varying Carrying Capacity for Covid-19 Deaths Using Data from Ontario, Canada","authors":"Georges Bucyibaruta, C. Dean, E. Renouf","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127079189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Q. Griette, Zhihua Liu, P. Magal, Robin N. Thompson
{"title":"Real-Time Prediction of the End of an Epidemic Wave: COVID-19 in China as a Case-Study","authors":"Q. Griette, Zhihua Liu, P. Magal, Robin N. Thompson","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128667282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Describing, Modelling and Forecasting the Spatial and Temporal Spread of COVID-19: A Short Review","authors":"Julien Arino","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126103534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Don't wait, re-escalate: delayed action results in longer duration of COVID-19 restrictions","authors":"A. Hurford, James Watmough","doi":"10.1101/2020.11.04.20226316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.04.20226316","url":null,"abstract":"We use a simple linear SIR model with case importation to determine the relationship between the timing of restrictions, duration of measures necessary to return the incidence to a set point, and the final size of the outbreak. We conclude from our analysis that delaying re-escalation of restrictions leads to increased duration of control measures and larger outbreaks. Conversely, earlier re-escalation results in shorter disruptions, smaller outbreaks, and consequently, lower economic and social costs.","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117004448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generalized Additive Models to Capture the Death Rates in Canada COVID-19","authors":"F. Izadi","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122832949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Afshordi, Benjamin P. Holder, Mohammad Bahrami, Daniel Lichtblau
{"title":"Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States","authors":"N. Afshordi, Benjamin P. Holder, Mohammad Bahrami, Daniel Lichtblau","doi":"10.1101/2020.06.30.20143636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.30.20143636","url":null,"abstract":"The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics and settlement, as well as the dynamic factors of climate, susceptible depletion, and intervention, on the spread of localized epidemics will be vital for mounting an effective response. We consider the entire set of local epidemics in the United States; a broad selection of demographic, population density, and climate factors; and local mobility data, tracking social distancing interventions, to determine the key factors driving the spread and containment of the virus. Assuming first a linear model for the rate of exponential growth (or decay) in cases/mortality, we find that population-weighted density, humidity, and median age dominate the dynamics of growth and decline, once interventions are accounted for. A focus on distinct metropolitan areas suggests that some locales benefited from the timing of a nearly simultaneous nationwide shutdown, and/or the regional climate conditions in mid-March; while others suffered significant outbreaks prior to intervention. Using a first-principles model of the infection spread, we then develop predictions for the impact of the relaxation of social distancing and local climate conditions. A few regions, where a significant fraction of the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e., \"herd immunity\"), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible. These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard.","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124919774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Barrett, Y. Nakamachi, T. Ierasts, Y. Khan, S. Mac, D. Naimark, N. Stall, R. Ximenes, Andrew M. Morris, B. Sander
{"title":"Forecasting Demand for Personal Protective Equipment for Ontario Acute Care Hospitals During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"K. Barrett, Y. Nakamachi, T. Ierasts, Y. Khan, S. Mac, D. Naimark, N. Stall, R. Ximenes, Andrew M. Morris, B. Sander","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_10","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134535570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Chowell, R. Rothenberg, K. Roosa, A. Tariq, J. Hyman, R. Luo
{"title":"Sub-epidemic Model Forecasts During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA and European Hotspots","authors":"G. Chowell, R. Rothenberg, K. Roosa, A. Tariq, J. Hyman, R. Luo","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85053-1_5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":389354,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Public Health","volume":"154 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127030002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}