New Zealand Economic Papers最新文献

{"title":"How New Zealand migrants fare in Australia: what explains their wealth gap?","authors":"Tinh Doan, Mark J. Holmes, Van Ha, T. Tran","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2022.2063163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2022.2063163","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates net wealth of the New Zealand-born (NZ-born) migrants relative to that of Australia-born, and other migrants in Australia. We consider how the free cross-border labour movement between Australia and New Zealand affects the wealth accumulating behaviour of NZ migrants. Our findings indicate that the NZ-born have lower net wealth than both the Australia-born and other migrants. The net wealth differential between the NZ- and Australia-born is mainly explained by the structure effect than from the composition effect (due to differences in observed characteristics, which are similar in both groups). In contrast, comparing with other migrants, the contribution of observed characteristics such as education, age, household composition, weekly wage, and long-term health conditions dominates the overall NZ-born’s net wealth differentials.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"296 - 317"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46234968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Income protection in the New Zealand tax-transfer system","authors":"Penny Mok, G. Pacheco","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2022.2063164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2022.2063164","url":null,"abstract":"This research note investigates income-replacement rates provided by the New Zealand welfare system when an individual loses their employment. We utilise New Zealand Treasury’s microsimulation model, based on tax and transfer rules from April 2018 to March 2019, for a variety of household scenarios. Results indicate that replacement rates are higher (above 50 percent) for those with children and for those earning low and median wage rates. These findings are highly relevant to policymakers, as they provide indicators of the adequacy of the welfare system and can inform design aspects of a potential unemployment insurance scheme.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"119 - 125"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42620089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Earnings penalty of educational mismatch: a comparison of alternative methods of assessing over-education","authors":"Le Wen, S. Maani","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2022.2034175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2022.2034175","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we systematically evaluate the impact of using the alternative methods conventionally used in the international literature on the measured incidence of educational mismatch and its earnings effects. We use a rich Australian longitudinal data set for a controlled group of full-time employed workers. Using panel data estimation, we address individual heterogeneity and measurement error, which are important in educational mismatch analysis. We show that alternative methods of measurement result in a range of estimates, with the Mode measure providing the most stable results across instrumental variables (IV) selections in panel fixed effects instrumental variables (FEIV) estimations. Based on the Mode measure, the incidence rate of over-education is 32.3%. The earnings penalty for each year of over-education is 2.5%, which is larger than 0.6% in fixed effect estimation and also larger than 1.9% in OLS estimations.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"169 - 194"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43225975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Who would win from a multi-rate GST in New Zealand: evidence from a QUAIDS model*","authors":"Alastair Thomas","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.2020324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.2020324","url":null,"abstract":"The merits of New Zealand moving away from its broad-based single-rate GST structure – particularly by removing GST on food – are often raised in public discourse and political campaigns. This paper investigates who would benefit from the introduction of a multi-rate GST structure in New Zealand and, in particular, whether reduced GST rates would be a more effective way of providing support to poorer households than New Zealand’s current income-tested tax credit approach. Behavioural simulation results from a QUAIDS model confirm previous findings that applying reduced GST rates to food and beverages would have a small progressive effect, but that richer households would benefit more than poorer households in aggregate terms. Meanwhile, reduced GST rates applied to recreational and cultural expenditure would have a regressive effect. Additional simulation results clearly show that the family tax credit is a far superior mechanism for providing support to poorer households than reduced GST rates. New Zealand should therefore maintain its current approach of a broad-based single-rate GST and income-tested tax credits.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"141 - 168"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45660723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rebuttal of Hendy, Wiles, Binny and Plank","authors":"J. Gibson","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2022.2034177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2022.2034177","url":null,"abstract":"In their comment on my paper ‘Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response’ Hendy, Wiles, Binny and Plank [hereafter HWBP] (Hendy et al, 2022) make several incorrect claims. I deal with these in the second part of this response. Perhaps the most unfortunate aspect of their comment is the fact that out of their 27 references just one is to a study in an economics journal or working paper series; the reference to my own paper. Some of their confusion that I discuss belowmight perhaps have been avoided if they had made greater use of the economics literature. There are at least two interpretations of this failure to cite economics studies. The first is that HWBP are willing to insert themselves into the scholarly conversation of a discipline in which they have no background but lack the scholarly politeness to acknowledge literature in that discipline.1 The second interpretation, which is even more disturbing, is that these authors actually believe that economics has nothing to say, in the sense there are no findings in the economics literature either more broadly or specifically related to Covid-19 that merit their attention. IfHWBPwere unknown academics, questions ofwhether they are conscientious and careful scholars who acknowledge relevant prior findings in the literature they publish into, and whether they have a skewed view of what economics can offer for crafting responses to Covid-19, could probably be ignored and the lack of citation to any economics literature in their comment could be put down to an oversight. However, three of these authors (all except Binny) have assumed dominating positions in public discussions in New Zealand related to Covid-19. A review of advice on Covid-19 received by the New Zealand government (Lally, 2021) notes that the research centre that links the HWBP authors, Te Punaha Matatini (TPM), came to displace public health academics as the source of technical advice on Covid-19. Yet authors of the key initial TPM study (James, Hendy, Plank, & Steyn, 2020), which includes two of HWBP, had no prior record of producing cost benefit analyses (CBA) of health interventions. Other commentators, such as Brash (2021) have also noted that the New Zealand government took Covid-19 advice from some unlikely sources, while neglecting input from economists. Thus, there may be something in the HWBP comment of interest to a future historian trying to explain why economists were so absent from the public discussion in New Zealand about appropriate responses to Covid-19. Relatedly, a future historian might note Hendy’s response to a later critique of the implausible prediction of 83,000 Covid-19 deaths in New Zealand without interventions (as made by TPM in James et al., 2020), where the response was to deride the critique by saying it is: ‘one for the economists-shouldn’t-do-epidemiology files’.2 If some of these influential advisors have","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"36 - 40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47855191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comment on ‘Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response’","authors":"S. Hendy, S. Wiles, Rachelle N. Binny, M. Plank","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2022.2034176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2022.2034176","url":null,"abstract":"In ‘Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response’ (New Zealand Economic Papers, 2020), Gibson claims that ‘Lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 deaths’ on the basis of an instrument variable linear regression on county-level cross-sectional data in the United States. Here we argue that Gibson’s analysis is not robust. In particular, Gibson (i) neglects the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, namely that spread was from well-connected urban counties to more isolated rural counties; (ii) selects cross-sections at arbitrary times from what is an on-going spatially heterogeneous dynamical process, introducing bias that he fails to control for; and (iii) makes a choice of instrument variable (political affiliation) that is correlated with the heterogeneity (and therefore the bias) and that could plausibly influence the output variable in his regression independently of the explanatory variable.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"29 - 35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45816851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bank size, competition, and efficiency: a post-GFC assessment of Australia and New Zealand","authors":"Salah U-Din, D. Tripe, M. Kabir","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.2020325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.2020325","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) on banking market structure and efficiency in both countries, and the relationship of bank size and market competition with cost and profit efficiencies. Efficiencies of 11 Australian and New Zealand large commercial banks are estimated with a one-stage stochastic frontier approach (SFA) for the period 2003–2017. The Herfindahl- Hirschman Index (HHI) and Lerner index are used as proxies for market competition along with eight banking environment variables. Cost and profit efficiencies significantly declined during 2008 and 2009, but the impact of the GFC persisted longer in New Zealand than in Australia. The level of risk and competition has reduced, and bank size increased in the post-GFC period. Bank size is found to be positively associated with bank efficiency. Market competition negatively influenced cost and profit efficiencies during the study period, especially after the GFC.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"195 - 217"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44555854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do consumers actually monitor the inflation rate? Evidence from New Zealand*","authors":"B. Hayo, Florian Neumeier","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.2010235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.2010235","url":null,"abstract":"In this note, we study whether consumers actually monitor the inflation rate, an assumption that is often made in studies on inflation perceptions and expectations as well as policy analyses. We analyse this question using unique representative survey data on New Zealand collected in 2016. In this case of an inflation targeting country and an environment of low inflation rate, we find that only about one third of the population says that it monitors the inflation rate. These are people characterised by a significantly higher degree of objective and subjective economic knowledge as well as interest in monetary issues.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"57 1","pages":"1 - 8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46606190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the Great Recession","authors":"Dawn Clyne, Trenton G. Smith","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.2006757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.2006757","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the recently developed New Zealand Economic Security Index (ESI) to explore the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on New Zealand households. The ESI is a measure of economic insecurity that identifies subgroups of the population that are susceptible to negative year-on-year income shocks. The ESI shows that insecurity closely follows the business cycle in New Zealand, which may concern policymakers tackling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. If income losses follow the pattern observed in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), demographics groups most susceptible to negative income shocks include Pākehā, retirees and individuals with fewer educational qualifications, while households in the highest income quintile are more protected from shocks relative to middle income households. Exposure to negative income risk is an important economic stressor that is rarely measured directly. Our method of calculating the ESI could be adapted by Statistics New Zealand and published on an annual basis.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"81 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43613554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Value and momentum in the cross section of housing market returns of New Zealand","authors":"Daniel Dunstan, Jinji Hao","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1998199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1998199","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines if there are value and momentum effects in the New Zealand housing market across different regions. It is found that the short-term momentum effect exists with the winner regions in the past year outperforming the loser regions in the following year by 2.06%, mainly from capital gains, after adjusting for the market risk. The house returns exhibit long-term reversal with the winner regions in the last six years underperforming the loser regions in each of the next eight years due to lower capital gains. A value effect is present with regions with high rent-price ratios outperforming those with low rent-price ratios in each of the next seven years due to persistent higher rental yields. However, both the reversal effect and value effect can be explained by the market risk.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"258 - 271"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44905046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}