Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide最新文献

{"title":"An intervention analysis of fatal far-right extremist violence within a vector-autoregressive framework","authors":"Joshua D. Freilich, V. Bejan, William S. Parkin, S. Chermak, Jeff Gruenewald","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This research examines the efficacy of 15 policy interventions and high-profile events on fatal violence committed by far-right extremists in the United States through the theoretical frameworks of deterrence, situational crime prevention, backlash, and political encouragement. We use a multivariate structural vector autoregressive process to analyse monthly time-series data to investigate the impact of these interventions on fatal far-right violence over a 25-year period. Controlling for variation in the national homicide rate, there was a decrease in far-right ideologically motivated homicide events after 9/11 and the passing of the Patriot Act. We also found an increase in non-ideological homicides after 9/11 and the Patriot Act, and a decrease after the Hate Crimes Act, Fort Hood Shooting and the Boston Bombing. Overall, it appears that most federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42415001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lowest of the low: why some countries suffer terrorist attacks against schools","authors":"S. Fahey, Victor Asal","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to investigate whether terrorist attacks against schools and other educational institutions were more common in states with little respect for human rights for a sample of 75 countries from 1981–2010 using the Global Terrorism Database. Specifically, we examined whether religious repression by governments, state terrorism against civilians and female political and economic empowerment would influence attacks against schools and terrorist attacks against any targets. We found that government oppression of religious expression was associated with increased terrorist attacks against educational targets and that some levels of government violence against its citizens was associated with both increased terrorist attacks against educational targets and, to a lesser degree, all targets. Greater political empowerment of women was associated with increased terrorist attacks against educational targets. On the contrary, increased economic rights for women was associated with some decreases in terrorist attacks against educational targets and to a lesser degree, against any type of target. We concluded that government behaviour at the state level can affect terrorist behaviour and targeting by terrorist individuals or organizations when governments manufacture grievance by denying civilians human rights, including rights to religious expression, safety and security, and political and economic rights for women.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49632016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Blood and scripture: how the Islamic State frames religion in violent video propaganda","authors":"Matthew M. Sweeney, Meghan Kubit","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Islamic State captured the world’s attention with the declaration of a global caliphate in 2014. In the subsequent 3 years, the Islamic State showed significant success at attracting foreign fighters, inspiring international terrorist attacks, and maintaining geographic control over portions of Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State’s vibrant online presence amplified this success via a sophisticated social media campaign and a robust propaganda output through imagery and visual multimedia. We expand on the prior work on Islamic State propaganda by asking, how does the Islamic State frame its violent video propaganda in the presence or absence of religious verses? We will answer this question using the SITE Intelligence Group’s terrorist video database. We applied framing theory and developed a theoretical framework built on the scholarly literature on violence in video propaganda and religious marketing. We find that the Islamic State intermixes violence and religion for the same purposes within its propaganda; namely, in seeking to legitimize itself, recruit from a broader audience, and intimidate its opponents. We further find specific differences between the perceived problems, solutions, and motivations in Islamic State propaganda and how the Islamic State uses religion and violence to address particular demographics.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43563581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Letter from the editor","authors":"G. Ligon","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965","url":null,"abstract":"Welcome to the thirteenth volume, second issue of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide Journal. We have four data-heavy articles to share with you in this Issue, from Matthew Sweeney and Meghan Kubit’s analysis of the Islamic State’s framing of religion amongst its violent propaganda to Gary Uzonyi’s investigation of the relationship between the quality of a country’s bureaucracy and the severity of mass violence carried out by the state. True to DAC’s mission of outstanding scholarship across disciplines, the authors vary in academic specializations and contributed new knowledge for our field using a variety of methods. In the first article, Susan Fahey and Victor Asal explore the factors that influence terrorist attacks on schools and other educational institutions. Using Global Terrorism Database data from 75 countries from 1981 to 2010, Drs. Fahey and Asal find that restrictions of human rights by the state, such as dampening religious expression and limiting women’s rights, is associated with increased attacks on education targets. The second article by Gary Uzonyi examined the relationship between bureaucratic quality and state violence to contrast the differences in thinking between firstand second-generation genocide scholars. Dr Uzonyi’s findings support arguments from the first-generation scholar camp that the quality of the bureaucracy is important to the ability of a government to commit mass violence and its severity. The findings apply to cases of genocide and politicide in less developed states as well. In the third article, Dr Joshua Freilich and an All-Star Collaborator Team examine the effect of policy on far-right extremist homicides in the United States. Using a monthly time series over 25 years, the authors find that there is no significant impact on far-right fatal violence from existing policy interventions. Overall, they observe that current federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence. Our final article focuses on the use of religion in non-state actor propaganda. Matthew Sweeney and Meghan Kubit expand on prior work of the Islamic State’s propaganda by examining how the group mixed violence with religion in its video propaganda, pulling from SITE Intelligence Group as a unique data source. Drs. Sweeney and Kubit found that the Islamic State leveraged this combination for legitimization and intimidation, and specifically for justifying the use of violence against specific demographics. Finally, I need to recognize our outgoing Editorial Assistant Michael Logan, who will join Kennesaw State University as an Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice. Logan has worked tirelessly over the past year to improve your journal, and he has raised our DYNAMICS OF ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT 2020, VOL. 13, NO. 2, 99–100 https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.202","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44833394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Considering the military-media nexus from the perspective of competing groups: the case of ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula","authors":"Carol K. Winkler, Kareem el-Damanhoury, Aaron Dicker, Y. Luu, W. Kaczkowski, Nagham El-Karhili","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT To address if and how militant, non-state actors in the online environment react to on-the-ground military pressures facing their competitors, this study explores AQAP’s visual media campaign during the 2016–2017 military operations to retake Mosul and Raqqa from ISIS control. Using chi-square analyses and content analysis, we analyzed 4027 images from Inspire, Jihad Recollections, and al-Masra to reveal how the onset of the ISIS battles corresponded to changes in AQAP’s strategic use of visual content, presentational form, and language-based audience targeting. Significant changes in visual content related to the display of institutional power structures rather than identity markers. Shifts in presentational elements involved image positioning (foreground/background) and viewer distance (intimate/personal vs. social public). Language-based targeting strategies between English and Arabic publications, however, demonstrated the most substantial change from before to during the battles. The study concludes that a complete understanding of the military-media nexus of militant, non-state groups requires consideration of military pressure on competing groups.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48646857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is (not) asymmetric conflict? From conceptual stretching to conceptual structuring","authors":"Christofer Berglund, E. Souleimanov","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the second half of the 1990s, the label “asymmetric” conflict rose to prominence among scholars and strategists, as a term for capturing the rising challenge that violent non-state actors posed to the liberal world order. However, the concept soon became a catch-phrase for a range of disparate phenomena, and other buzzwords arose to describe the threats of concern to decision-makers. Conceptual confusion beset the field. This article dissects the notion of asymmetric conflicts, and distinguishes between asymmetries involving differences in (1) status, (2) capabilities, or (3) strategies between belligerents. It argues that “asymmetric” conflicts can take numerous forms depending on the combination of differences present, and offers a blue-print for keeping track of the meaning of this concept in the hope of bringing greater precision to future debates.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44914771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The emergence of splinter factions in intrastate conflict","authors":"Michael Burch, Leslie Ochreiter","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Why do some rebel groups fractionalize during intrastate conflict? The focus of this article is on understanding a particular phenomenon within fragmentation during civil war: the emergence of viable splinter factions. Splinter factions are when a new rebel group emerges from an ongoing violent challenge against the state and concurrently launches their own violent campaign rather than continue to pool resources to mount a more effective fight. In this article, we outline how the organizational characteristics of the original rebel movement can create several conditions in which splinter factions will emerge. Organizational decisions regarding, mobilization, central command, and territorial control creates opportunities for aggrieved members within the coalition to strike out on their own. Support for the theory is found through statistical tests on the internal characteristics of rebel groups demonstrating the importance of rebel group structure in understanding contemporary conflict processes.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46342720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing success of the Global War on Terror: terrorist attack frequency and the backlash effect","authors":"Kyle Kattelman","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Do states contributing military forces to the Global War on Terror leave their citizens vulnerable to retaliatory terrorist attacks? Despite the vast amount of coverage dedicated to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, few studies have empirically tested whether this is the case. Taking a country-specific approach, this research investigates the military success of the Global War on Terror on a very specific objective − reducing the frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates against the citizens of coalition states − to determine if military participation makes a state a target for retaliatory attacks via a backlash effect. Examining terrorist attack data against 53 contributing nations from 1998–2011, this study constructs a general framework for terrorist vulnerability from transnational attacks at the state level and tests whether military contributions to the GWOT, specifically boots on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, result in a greater frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations. The results show evidence of a backlash effect from Al-Qaeda core and affiliates, casting doubt on the effectiveness of military interventions to reduce transnational terrorism.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47509928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Communication (un)savviness and the failure of terrorism: a case of Pakistani terrorist organizations","authors":"Muhammad Feyyaz","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The central hypothesis of this article is that there are a large number of terrorist groups which prolifically employ strategic communication (stratcom), while paradoxically, there are others who markedly underutilize it, and therefore, fail to mobilize support for the professed cause. The decisive determinant for either of the two ends, it is argued, obtains in the intellectual endowment or its banality among the conspiratorial groupings. A case of stratcom by two leading Pakistani Taliban groups – Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and TTP – Jammat ul Ahrar – is systematically investigated. The analysis clearly engenders that these terrorist organizations are communication un-savvy, because, they are not only religiously and secularly less informed and increasingly rhetorical but are intellectually far less creative to articulate a people inspired rhetorical vision. The brutalization of the civilians further trivializes their discourses. They have thus largely failed to evoke meaningful social mobilization. Besides further elaborating on the findings, the conclusion reflects on a few limitations of the research, offers input for broadening the research scope of some of the key dimensions of terrorism literature and ends with the discussion on some policy implications.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45826964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Letter from the editor","authors":"Gina Scott Logan, Michael K. Logan","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2020.1726044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2020.1726044","url":null,"abstract":"Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the thirteenth volume, first issue of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide Journal. We have five exceptional articles to share with you in this Issue, ranging from Carol Winkler and colleagues’ analysis of alQaeda in the Arabian Peninsula visual media campaign to Kyle Kattelman’s research on the relationship between the Global War on Terror and terrorist attack frequency. While the authors vary in academic specializations, there are three themes across the articles in this Issue. The first theme is the focus on communication and media usage among violent nonstate actors. For example, in the first article, Carol Winkler and colleagues examine changes in al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s visual media campaign during the 2016–2017 military operations to retake Mosul and Raqqa from the Islamic State. After analysing over 4000 images from Inspire, Jihad Recollections, and al-Masra, the authors found that significant changes in the visual content related to institutional power structures as opposed to identity markers. Authors also found significant changes in languagebased strategies between English and Arabic before to during battles. The second article by Muhammad Feyyaz also touched on the theme of communication and media usage among violent non-state actors. More specifically, his research explores the strategic communication by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Jammat ul Ahrar. He finds that both terrorist organizations are communication un-savvy due to their increasingly rhetorical nature and emphasis on religious and secular claims. In addition, the brutalization of civilians lessens the influence of their strategic communication. The second theme in this Issue focuses on the factors that enhance asymmetric conflict. More specifically, in the third article, Michael Burch and Leslie Ochreiter examine why rebel groups fractionalize during intrastate conflict. In other words, their study focuses on why rebel groups fragment and engage in their own violent campaign as opposed to continuing to share resources within a larger group. The authors find that the organizational characteristics related to mobilization, central command, and territorial control drive the decision to fractionalize among rebel groups. The fourth article by Kyle T. Kattelman also emphasizes the second research theme underlying this Issue. This study uses terrorist attack data from 53 countries to examine how the Global War on Terror has influenced terrorist attacks perpetrated by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates against the citizens of coalition states. His findings suggest that military contributions to the Global War on Terror increase the frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates suggestive of a backlash effect. The final theme in this Issue focuses on defining what is (not) asymmetric conflict. In particular, research by Christofer Berglund and Emil Aslan Souleima","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2020.1726044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43024496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}