Epidemiologic Methods最新文献

{"title":"Dynamic data-driven algorithm to predict cumulative COVID-19 infected cases using susceptible-infected-susceptible model","authors":"A. Anand, Saurabh Kumar, P. Ghosh","doi":"10.1101/2021.03.24.21253599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.24.21253599","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives In recent times, researchers have used Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model to understand the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The SIS model has two compartments, susceptible and infected. In this model, the interest is to determine the number of infected cases at a given time point. However, it is also essential to know the cumulative number of infected cases at a given time point, which is not directly available from the SIS model's present structure. The objective is to provide a modified SIS model to address that gap. Methods In this work, we propose a modified structure of the SIS model to determine the cumulative number of infected cases at a given time point. We develop a dynamic data-driven algorithm to estimate the model parameters based on an optimally chosen training phase to predict the number of cumulative infected cases. Results We demonstrate the proposed algorithm's prediction performance using COVID-19 data from Delhi, India's capital city. Considering different time periods, we observed the proposed algorithm’s performance using the modified SIS model is well to predict the cumulative infected cases with two different prediction periods 30 and 40. Our study supports the idea of estimating the modified SIS model's parameters based on the optimal training phase instead of the entire history as the training phase. Conclusions Here, we have provided a modified SIS model that accounts for deaths due to disease and predicts cumulative infected cases based on an optimally chosen training phase. The proposed estimation process is beneficial when the disease under study changes its spreading pattern over time. We have developed the modified SIS model considering COVID-19 as the disease under focus. However, the model and algorithms can be applied to predict the cumulative cases of other infectious diseases.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88157708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An adaptive social distancing SIR model for COVID-19 disease spreading and forecasting","authors":"S. Gounane, Y. Barkouch, Abdelghafour Atlas, M. Bendahmane, Fahd Karami, D. Meskine","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recently, various mathematical models have been proposed to model COVID-19 outbreak. These models are an effective tool to study the mechanisms of coronavirus spreading and to predict the future course of COVID-19 disease. They are also used to evaluate strategies to control this pandemic. Generally, SIR compartmental models are appropriate for understanding and predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The classical SIR model is initially introduced by Kermack and McKendrick (cf. (Anderson, R. M. 1991. “Discussion: the Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic Threshold Theorem.” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53 (1): 3–32; Kermack, W. O., and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.” Proceedings of the Royal Society 115 (772): 700–21)) to describe the evolution of the susceptible, infected and recovered compartment. Focused on the impact of public policies designed to contain this pandemic, we develop a new nonlinear SIR epidemic problem modeling the spreading of coronavirus under the effect of a social distancing induced by the government measures to stop coronavirus spreading. To find the parameters adopted for each country (for e.g. Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Algeria and Morocco) we fit the proposed model with respect to the actual real data. We also evaluate the government measures in each country with respect to the evolution of the pandemic. Our numerical simulations can be used to provide an effective tool for predicting the spread of the disease.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/em-2020-0044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72405578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Complex systems analysis informs on the spread of COVID-19","authors":"Xia Wang, Dorcas Washington, G. Weber","doi":"10.1101/2021.01.06.425544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.06.425544","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives The non-linear progression of new infection numbers in a pandemic poses challenges to the evaluation of its management. The tools of complex systems research may aid in attaining information that would be difficult to extract with other means. Methods To study the COVID-19 pandemic, we utilize the reported new cases per day for the globe, nine countries and six US states through October 2020. Fourier and univariate wavelet analyses inform on periodicity and extent of change. Results Evaluating time-lagged data sets of various lag lengths, we find that the autocorrelation function, average mutual information and box counting dimension represent good quantitative readouts for the progression of new infections. Bivariate wavelet analysis and return plots give indications of containment vs. exacerbation. Homogeneity or heterogeneity in the population response, uptick vs. suppression, and worsening or improving trends are discernible, in part by plotting various time lags in three dimensions. Conclusions The analysis of epidemic or pandemic progression with the techniques available for observed (noisy) complex data can extract important characteristics and aid decision making in the public health response.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83280331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mixed methods to assess the use of rare illicit psychoactive substances: a case study","authors":"E. Janssen, Michael Vuolo, Clément Gérome, A. Cadet-Taïrou","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0031","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article presents original mixed method research to describe the use of rare illicit psychoactive substances, with special emphasis on crack cocaine in France. We first introduce a unique monitoring system committed to the observation of hard-to-reach populations. Qualitative findings rely, among others, on perennial ethnographic studies and field professionals’ knowledge to provide guidance to estimate the number of crack cocaine users. We then rely on a set of multilevel capture-recapture estimators, a statistical procedure to indirectly estimate the size of elusive populations. Since prior field evidence suggests an increasing diversity in crack cocaine users’ profiles, we provide a measure of heterogeneity to assess which estimator better fits the data. The calculated estimates are then critically reviewed and debated in light of the previously gathered information. Our results uncover both individual and institutional heterogeneity and suggest that the spread of crack cocaine in France initiated earlier than originally thought. Our case study underlines the need for field-driven assessments to put quantitative results into perspective, a necessary step to tailor efficient health policy responses.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78309946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A simplified approach to bias estimation for correlations","authors":"X. Liu","doi":"10.1515/em-2021-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2021-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives We introduce a simple and unified methodology to estimate the bias of Pearson correlation coefficients, partial correlation coefficients, and semi-partial correlation coefficients. Methods Our methodology features non-parametric bootstrapping and can accommodate small sample data without making any distributional assumptions. Results Two examples with R code are provided to illustrate the computation. Conclusions The computation strategy is easy to implement and remains the same, be it Pearson correlation or partial or semi-partial correlation.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76184475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the influence of location of residence on blood pressure in urbanising South India: a path analysis with multiple mediators","authors":"T. B. Sørensen, S. Vansteelandt, R. Wilson, J. Gregson, B. Shankar, S. Kinra, A. Dangour","doi":"10.1515/em-2019-0035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2019-0035","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: The current study aims to estimate the causal effect of increasing levels of urbanisation on mean SBP, and to decompose the direct and indirect effects via hypothesised mediators. Methods: We analysed data from 5, 840 adults (≥ 18 years) from the Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents study (APCAPS) conducted in 27 villages in Telangana, South India. The villages experienced different amounts of urbanisation during preceding decades and ranged from a rural village to a medium sized town. We estimated urbanisation levels of surveyed villages by combining remote sensing data of night-time light intensity (NTLI), measured by unitless digital numbers, with satellite imagery and ground surveying of village boundaries. We performed mediation analysis using linear mixed-effects models with SBP as the outcome, log-transformed continuous NTLI as the exposure, and three composite mediators summarising information on (i) socio-demographics (e.g., occupation and education); (ii) lifestyle and mental health (e.g., diet and depression); (iii) metabolic factors (e.g., fasting glucose and triglycerides). All models fitted random intercepts to account for clustering by villages and households and adjusted for confounders. Results: The NTLI range across the 27 villages was 62 to 1081 (4.1 to 7.0 on the log scale). Mean SBP was 122.7 mmHg (±15.7) among men and 115.8 mmHg (±14.2) among women. One unit (integer) log-NTLI increase was associated with a rise in mean SBP of 2.1 mmHg (95% CI 0.6, 3.5) among men and 1.3 mmHg (95% CI 0.0, 2.6) among women. We identified a positive indirect effect of log-NTLI on SBP via the metabolic pathway, where one log-NTLI increase elevated SBP by 4.6 mmHg (95% CI 2.0, 7.3) among men and by 0.7 mmHg (95% 0.1, 1.3) among women. There was a positive indirect effect of log-NTLI on SBP via the lifestyle and mental health pathway among men, where one log-NTLI increase elevated SBP by 0.7 mmHg (95% CI 0.1, 1.3). Observed negative direct effects of log-NTLI on SBP and positive indirect effects via the socio-demographic pathway among both genders; as well as a positive indirect effect via the lifestyle and mental health pathway among women, were not statistically significant at the 5% level. The sizes of effects were approximately doubled among participants ≥40 years of age. Conclusion: Our findings offer new insights into the pathways via which urbanisation level may act on blood pressure. Large indirect effects via metabolic factors, independent of socio-demographic, lifestyle and mental health factors identify a need to understand better the indirect effects of environmental cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors that change with urbanisation. We encourage researchers to use causal methods in further quantification of path-specific effects of place of residence on CVDs and risk factors. Available evidence-based, cost-effective interventions that target upstream determinants of CVDs should be implemented across all socio","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87915187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of birth-intervals in Algeria: a semi-Markov model analysis","authors":"F. Chellai","doi":"10.1515/em-2021-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2021-0030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives Analyzing the dynamics and patterns of birth intervals in the Algerian population is an important issue in developing an effective population policy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on the birth spacing process. Methods Semi-Markov models were used, based on data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), where the birth histories of 13,453 infants nested within a sample of 6,958 married women were analyzed. Results The findings stated that the birth intervals depend on: (i) mothers’ educational level, whereas wider intervals have been found for highly educated women, (ii) the wealth index, as women from poor families have short birth intervals, and (iii) there was no clear difference between rural and urban areas. Conclusions Policymakers can act through these axes to develop more efficient strategies for family planning.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73665281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reliability of fetal–infant mortality rates in perinatal periods of risk (PPOR) analysis","authors":"Vito L Di Bona","doi":"10.1515/em-2019-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2019-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Fetal–Infant mortality rate (FIMR) is the basic surveillance statistic in perinatal periods of risk (PPOR) analyses. This paper presents a model for the FIMR as the ratio of two Poisson random variables. From this model, expressions for estimators of variance, standard error, and relative standard error are developed. The coverage properties of interval estimators for the FIMR are investigated in a simulation study for both small and large populations and FIMR rates. Results from these studies are applied to a PPOR analysis of NC vital records. Results suggest that the sample size guidance provided in the literature to ensure statistical reliability is overly conservative and interval construction methodology should be selected based on population size.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74930310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gamma frailty model for survival risk estimation: an application to cancer data","authors":"K. M. J. Krishna, T. Traison, Sejil Mariya Sebastian, P. George, A. Mathew","doi":"10.1515/em-2021-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2021-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: In time to event analysis, the risk for an event is usually estimated using Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model. But CPH model has the limitation of biased estimate due to unobserved hidden heterogeneity among the covariates, which can be tackled using frailty models. The best models were usually being identified using Akaike information criteria (AIC). Apart from AIC, the present study aimed to assess predictability of risk models using survival concordance measure. Methods: CPH model and frailty models were used to estimate the risk for breast cancer patient survival, and the frailty variable was assumed to follow gamma distribution. Schoenfeld global test was used to check the proportionality assumption. Survival concordance, AIC and simulation studies were used to identify the significance of frailty. Results: From the univariate analysis it was observed that for the covariate age, the frailty has a significant role (θ = 2.758, p-value: 0.0004) and the corresponding hazard rate was 1.93 compared to that of 1.38 for CPH model (age > 50 vs. ≤ 40). Also the covariates radiotherapy and chemotherapy were found to be significant (θ = 5.944, p-value: <0.001 and θ = 16, p-value: <0.001 respectively). Even though there were only minor differences in hazard rates, the concordance was higher for frailty than CPH model for all the covariates. Further the simulation study showed that the bias and root mean square error (RMSE) obtained for both the methods was almost the same and the concordance measures were higher for frailty model by 12–15%. Conclusions: We conclude that the frailty model is better compared to CPH model as it can account for unobserved random heterogeneity, and if the frailty coefficient doesn’t have an effect it gives exactly the same risk as that of CPH model and this has been established using survival concordance.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79257177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis for transmission of dengue disease with different class of human population","authors":"A. Dwivedi, Ram Keval","doi":"10.1515/em-2020-0046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objectives: Vector-borne diseases speedily infest the human population. The control techniques must be applied to such ailment and work swiftly. We proposed a compartmental model of dengue disease by incorporating the standard incidence relation between susceptible vectors and infected humans to see the effect of manageable parameters of the model on the basic reproduction number. Methods: We compute the basic reproduction number by using the next -generation matrix method to study the local and global stability of disease free and endemic equilibrium points along with sensitivity analysis of the model. Results: Numerical results are explored the global behaviourism of disease-free/endemic state for a choice of arbitrary initial conditions. Also, the biting rate of vector population has more influence on the basic reproduction number as compared the other parameters. Conclusion: In this paper, shows that controlling the route of transmission of this disease is very important if we plan to restrict the transmission potential.","PeriodicalId":37999,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83013643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}