Statistics in Transition最新文献

{"title":"Approach to population estimation in Ukraine using mobile operators’ data","authors":"V. Sarioglo, Maryna Ogay","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-008","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating the size and places of residence of the population of Ukraine has been\u0000 this country’s problem for the past decade, and is related to the lack of census data\u0000 for the 2010 round, large-scale processes of external and internal labour migration, and\u0000 Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine that started in 2014. This already\u0000 disadvantageous situation has been significantly exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale war\u0000 against Ukraine which began on 24th February 2022. Conducting statistical surveys,\u0000 especially surveys regarding the population, turned out to impossible under war\u0000 circumstances. Therefore, the task of developing effective approaches to estimating the\u0000 population size using data from existing sources, in particular the data of mobile\u0000 operators regarding the number, location and mobility of subscribers, has become even\u0000 more pressing. The article highlights the results of a study on the use of data from\u0000 mobile operators, data from administrative registers, and the results of a special\u0000 population sample survey on the use of mobile communication for the purpose of\u0000 estimating the population. It also provides the results of experimental calculations of\u0000 the population size in Ukraine as a whole and in particular regions. The study moreover\u0000 showed that the size of Ukraine’s population in November 2019, unlike the official\u0000 estimate of 41,940.7 thousand people, was probably about 37,289.4 thousand people. The\u0000 developed approaches can be used to estimate the number and location of the population\u0000 of Ukraine during the intercensal period or significant population movements due to\u0000 environmental disasters or military conflicts.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48150351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Budgetary policy of Ukraine in time of challenges and its impact on financial\u0000 security","authors":"Taisiia Bondaruk, L. Momotiuk, I. Zaichko","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-009","url":null,"abstract":"Ukraine has recently experienced a significant economic downturn as a result of\u0000 the COVID-19 pandemic and the war caused by a large-scale military aggression of the\u0000 Russian Federation. In conditions of the constant fluctuations of the national economy,\u0000 the stimulating effect of the budgetary policy aimed at minimizing the consequences of\u0000 such fluctuations and guaranteeing a sufficient level of financial security of the state\u0000 becomes especially important. The aim of the study is to deepen the theoretical and\u0000 methodological foundations of the creation and implementation of budgetary policy in\u0000 Ukraine, evaluation of its impact on the financial security in time of challenges. The\u0000 study uses methods of comparative analysis, grouping in the process of evaluating the\u0000 current state of budgetary policy indicators, methods of normalization and\u0000 standardization of data, modelling, and graphical analysis of data for normalizing the\u0000 financial security indicators and determining the dynamics of financial security\u0000 components. The materials and reports containing statistical data from the Ministry of\u0000 Finance of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine served as the basis of\u0000 the study. We found out that the components of the financial security of the state in\u0000 the face of the challenges posed by martial law and the pandemic do not take into\u0000 account the impact of budgetary policy. We substantiated the thesis that the creation of\u0000 Ukraine's budgetary policy under martial law requires adjustments to the financial\u0000 security assessment system. The most statistically significant and reliable models of\u0000 interrelation were selected for further use in multifactor modelling and forecasting the\u0000 financial security of the state (on the basis of ranking the linear, polynominal,\u0000 exponential, logarithmic and power dependencies within one-factor equations). It was\u0000 experimentally proved that out of 122 statistically significant indicators, budgetary\u0000 policy indicators such as the coefficient of financing the national functions, the\u0000 coefficient of public debt service and redemption, and the coefficient of the\u0000 proportionality of financing the national security agencies had the greatest impact on\u0000 the financial security of Ukraine. We also substantiated the scientific provisions\u0000 behind the modelling of the level of financial security of Ukraine taking into account\u0000 the impact of budgetary policy in the period of challenges. In the process of modelling,\u0000 the indicators of budgetary policy were identified, while regression analysis revealed\u0000 the factors influencing the budgetary policy.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49253896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Method of auditing in conditions of martial law","authors":"Olha Lubenchenko, Svitlana Shulga, Halyna Pavlova","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-006","url":null,"abstract":"In the article there are considered methodical recommendations on the actions of\u0000 auditors during martial law. They relate to such stages of the audit as the preparatory\u0000 phase, the planning phase, the task implementation and the final phase. The preparatory\u0000 stage requires the identification of the client and the conclusion of an audit\u0000 agreement. Under martial law, new risks are emerging, systematized by the authors and\u0000 related to the identification of persons involved in terrorist activities and the\u0000 proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The systematization of risks and the use\u0000 of IT technologies to identify and verify the client allows auditors, as specially\u0000 designated entities of primary financial monitoring, to identify and freeze the assets\u0000 of such persons in a timely manner and stop providing any services. At the client\u0000 acceptance and assignment stage, auditors assess ethical threats. As a result, a working\u0000 paper has been developed to assess ethical threats in the light of martial law. At the\u0000 planning stage, special attention should be paid to reviewing risks, namely how military\u0000 aggression affects the continuity of any business. Clarification of risk factors for\u0000 termination allows you to plan audit procedures to gather audit evidence and further\u0000 determine the auditor's opinion on continuity (opinion with an explanatory paragraph,\u0000 opinion with a reservation, negative opinion, disclaimer of opinion). One of the\u0000 effective procedures for collecting audit evidence at the stage of the task is\u0000 inventory.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46055317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A statistical study of climate change in Ukraine under martial law","authors":"Т. Kobylynska, I. Legan, O. Motuzka","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-005","url":null,"abstract":"The article concentrates on the development of theoretical and methodological\u0000 foundations of statistical research in the field of national environmental and economic\u0000 accounting, which forms the basis for the development of indicators of climate change\u0000 under martial law and shapes the adaptation to these changes. Given Russia’s military\u0000 aggression against Ukraine, the national statistical system is faced with an urgent task\u0000 of ensuring the continuity of the production of complete and high quality statistical\u0000 information. The issue of forming a methodology for the production of statistical\u0000 information in the field of ecology, i.e. climate change statistics, remains unresolved.\u0000 Outlining ways to address this issue is an important condition for the improvement of\u0000 modern state statistics of Ukraine and the development of statistical theory and\u0000 practice, as this largely determines the quality of the information-related support for\u0000 environmental management at all levels. The statistical estimation of the dynamics and\u0000 structure of greenhouse gas emissions on the basis of the economic activity of\u0000 enterprises was performed. It was pointed out that among the various related branch\u0000 methods of obtaining information, the system of environmental and economic accounting is\u0000 the most relevant and source of high quality data. One of the aspects of solving the\u0000 complex problem of forming methodological bases for collecting statistical environmental\u0000 information is the creation of a national system of indicators of climate change and\u0000 preparing statistical informational products using administrative data sources. The\u0000 paper studies issues of producing ecological information relating to Ukraine according\u0000 to statistical data. Moreover, the main problems which arise during the construction of\u0000 national environmental accounts were characterised. Finally, the paper identified the\u0000 key factors which influence to the largest extent the quality of statistical data and\u0000 calculations, and which are necessary for the transformation and development of the\u0000 statistical estimation of climate change under Russian military aggression.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44030342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current challenges related to the consumer price index (CPI) in Ukraine","authors":"O. Vasyechko","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-007","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to contribute to the maintenance and compilation of\u0000 the consumer price index (CPI) in the current extreme situation caused by the Russian\u0000 military aggression against Ukraine. In these extreme conditions, official statistics is\u0000 faced with the task of maintaining the regularity, completeness and quality of the\u0000 production of statistical information, including the CPI, which is one of the key\u0000 economic indicators. The interaction between the ideal and conditional concepts of the\u0000 index and their practical implementation is considered as a potential source of\u0000 compilation improvement. The author argues that the main factor of the modern criticism\u0000 of the CPI is the systematic deviation of the practical form of the index from its\u0000 theoretical foundations. One way to solve this problem is to use new sources of\u0000 information, especially big data cash registers. In today's extreme conditions, cash\u0000 data can extensively address the issue of limited and untimely access to primary data\u0000 sources needed to compile the CPI, as well as promptly take into account the changes in\u0000 consumption patterns caused by significant migratory flows from the dangerous areas, and\u0000 changes in the supply offer due to the rupture of supply chains.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43446106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using electronic registries to study the COVID-19 pandemic and its\u0000 consequences","authors":"M. Puhachova, O. Gladun","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-015","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyses systems of electronic information resources (registers and\u0000 databases) in the field of the healthcare in different countries. Not only do such\u0000 systems provide information to support the treatment of patients, but they also\u0000 accumulate large amounts of statistics, thus enabling their qualitative operational\u0000 analysis. Electronic health systems are particularly popular in the United States, and\u0000 as regards Europe, in Denmark and Norway. These countries created good conditions for\u0000 the efficient introduction of new electronic information resources that would store all\u0000 the accumulated information about the COVID 19 pandemic. The aim of the article is to\u0000 summarise information on the use of electronic registers and databases to create an\u0000 information base for the study of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences in\u0000 different countries, and to formulate proposals for the improvement of electronic health\u0000 systems in Ukraine. On the basis of the results of their research, the authors propose a\u0000 list of electronic registers that can significantly improve the analysis of both the\u0000 course and the consequences of the coronavirus disease. The list includes: the register\u0000 of immunisations, a specialised register of complications after the recovery from\u0000 COVID-19, a register of tests for the presence of this disease or the recovery, etc., as\u0000 well as a register of hospitalisation cases.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48000716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Problems realating to the statistical research of the national market of logistics\u0000 services in war conditions","authors":"N. Hrynchak, O. Yatsenko, O. Bulatova, O. Ptashchenko","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-002","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the theoretical principles of statistical research with\u0000 regard to the national market of logistics services during wartime. The system of\u0000 statistical indicators of the research of the logistics services market is structured\u0000 through the allocation of separate blocks of indicators by priority of their estimation\u0000 in war conditions. The market of logistics services of Ukraine is characterised by\u0000 selected blocks of indicators. The paper identifies the main structural changes that\u0000 occurred due to the hostilities faced by the country. Moreover, the authors determine\u0000 the main factors influencing the functioning of the analysed market during war, as the\u0000 statistical study of these factors is considered necessary for the transformation and\u0000 development of logistics services. It is substantiated that taking into account such\u0000 statistical indicators as the level and availability of logistics infrastructure,\u0000 security, the human factor and changes in legislation are likely to result in a new\u0000 alternative direction of logistics routes and contribute to the development of the\u0000 logistics services market in general. The authors proposed the construction of a\u0000 centralised electronic service (or several services) with the purpose of consolidating\u0000 information about the logistics infrastructure. The software system should offer the\u0000 option of an operational interactive visualisation.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47710472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"War-driven wave of Ukrainian emigration to Europe: an attempt to evaluate the scale\u0000 and consequences (the view of Ukrainian researchers)","authors":"E. Libanova, O. Pozniak","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-014","url":null,"abstract":"The article aims to evaluate the scale and consequences of the emigration of\u0000 Ukrainians triggered by the military aggression of the Russian Federation. The paper\u0000 also attempts to determine the composition of the refugees. The first weeks of the\u0000 military aggression saw the most active departure of the population from Ukraine, after\u0000 that the number of those seeking refuge decreased. According to the estimation of the\u0000 Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences\u0000 of Ukraine based on the data from the State Border Guard Service, the number of\u0000 ‘refugees from the war in Ukraine’ reached 3 million as of the end of June 2022. The\u0000 emigrants are mainly residents of Kyiv and Kharkiv, which results in a much higher\u0000 specific weight of people with higher education than the national average. This fact\u0000 combined with an orientation towards employment rather than social assistance (a\u0000 mentality that is relatively close to Europeans), suggests a high probability\u0000 (especially compared to the same emigrants from other countries, including Syria and\u0000 Afghanistan) for most Ukrainian women to successfully adapt to life across the border.\u0000 This is especially true for those who came to Poland, due to the minimal linguistic and\u0000 cultural differences between the countries. The potential amount of irreversible\u0000 migration losses, depending on the military and economic factors, ranges from 600–700\u0000 thousand to 5–5.5 million people. Considering the fact that approximately 3 million\u0000 Ukrainians had already been staying (working) abroad before 2022, the war is likely to\u0000 result in a demographic catastrophe for Ukraine, whose demographic potential has been\u0000 utterly exhausted.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45981243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using Big Data by Ukrainian official statistics when martial law applies: problems\u0000 and solutions","authors":"O. Osaulenko, O. Horobets","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-003","url":null,"abstract":"The article is focused on issues of the secure operation of official statistics in\u0000 Ukraine during the application of martial law. It was found that the gaps in\u0000 conventional sources of statistical data caused by the war needed to be filled with data\u0000 from alternative sources, including Big Data. The level of digitalisation in Ukraine as\u0000 the basis for using Big Data was analysed by the proposed indices of internetisation,\u0000 social progress and digital transformation. Thanks to our research, several problems\u0000 (methodological, legal, financial, and managerial) were identified as vital for\u0000 statistical offices on their way to the implementation of Big Data in statistical\u0000 processes. Our proposals concern tools for Big Data processing, such as Data Hypercube\u0000 as a way for presenting Big Data for their visualisation, applications of Web scraping\u0000 in estimating the consumer prices index, analyses of labour and real estate markets, and\u0000 the applications of specialised software for the collection, processing and analysis of\u0000 Big Data sets.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43665277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the green transition and the energy\u0000 crisis: Ukrainian scenario of circular economy development","authors":"N. Reznikova, I. Zvarych, R. Zvarych, O. Ivashchenko","doi":"10.59170/stattrans-2023-004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2023-004","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to minimise the impact of the energy crisis on the\u0000 environment as one of the ways of getting rid of carbon footprints resulting from the\u0000 growth of the russian energy and building a circular sustainable ecosystem in Ukraine.\u0000 Therefore, the study proposes a classification of green inflation and singles out the\u0000 following forms of its manifestation: 1) as a reaction to irresponsible management; 2)\u0000 as a reaction to an attempt to implement large-scale projects aimed at decarbonisation\u0000 within strict time limits; 3) as a reaction to the strengthening of business standards,\u0000 which the end consumer will have to pay for. The paper determines the impact that the\u0000 war has on the practice of applying resource nationalism associated with a wide variety\u0000 of modern global problems. Discussions focus particularly on the following topics: the\u0000 ‘resource curse’, the growing concern of the OECD countries. The paper identifies the\u0000 dominant diversification tendencies in the EU in terms of the circularity of the\u0000 economy. The proposed concept of a global inclusive circular economy can be considered\u0000 as a complex multidimensional system, whose main components are based on the economic,\u0000 sociological, environmental and circular aspects of life.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49186159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}