DecisionSciRN: Probability (Sub-Topic)最新文献

{"title":"If the Riemann Hypothesis is Not Correct","authors":"M. Mnatsakanyan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3698012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3698012","url":null,"abstract":"If the hypothesis is not true, you can construct a sequence of numbers tending to zero this function, so that at these points the partial sum of this function multiplied by the number in the power of the argument reaches in the limit a predetermined any number from the extended complex plane, and the remainder of the multiplications by the number in the power argument remains uniformly bounded in any closed region inside the region of convergence of the Dirichlet series of this function.","PeriodicalId":379670,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Probability (Sub-Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125928917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"J M Keynes and E. Borel’s Initial Skipping of Part II of the A Treatise on Probability in His 1924 Review: What Changed Borel’s Mind 15 Years Later?","authors":"M. E. Brady","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3660725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660725","url":null,"abstract":"Emile Borel’s review of the A Treatise on Probability in 1924 is, in my opinion, quite above average. I would give it a grade of B/B+. Borel was also an intellectually honest researcher. Borel did not pretend to have read Parts II, III, IV, and V of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability, as has been done repeatedly by psychologists, philosophers, historians, and economists, who have cited the A Treatise on Probability in their references when writing about Keynes’s logical theory of probability in his A Treatise on Probability. <br><br>Borel apologizes to Keynes (and Bertrand Russell,who Borel knew had assisted Keynes in writing the A Treatise on Probability) for not reading Part II of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability because he realized that, for Keynes, Part II was the most important part of the A Treatise on Probability. Borel was correct. It was the most important and intellectually powerful part of the book. It was the most important and intellectually powerful part of the book because Keynes presented for the second time in history a theoretical, technically advanced approach to imprecise probability. The first attempt in history was Boole’s original achievement in The Laws of Thought in 1854. Adam Smith had presented the first non technically advanced imprecise theory of probability in 1776 in the Wealth of Nations, which was opposed by Jeremy Bentham’s precise theory of probability that was used in his 1787 The Principles of Morals and Legislation. <br><br>However, Borel bemoaned the fact that Maxwell, who was a graduate, just like Keynes himself, of Cambridge University, who had made contributions to physics using the limiting frequency interpretation of probability, which Borel thought that Keynes had given insufficient space and emphasis to in his book, had been overlooked by Keynes. This is correct with respect to Part I of the A Treatise on Probability. However,it is incorrect with respect to the totality of A Treatise on Probability because Keynes covered Maxwell on pp.172-174 of Chapter 16 in Part II. Maxwell is listed in the index to A Treatise on Probability on p.463. In Part V, in chapter 32, Keynes makes it clear that, if the only relevant evidence consists of statistical frequencies and there is no other relevant evidence, then the logical probability estimate of a probability is identical to the estimate made by the limiting frequency theory if the statistical frequency can be shown to be stable over time using the Lexis -Q test. <br><br>Another important result of this paper is that it appears that no academic has read Part II of the A Treatise on Probability since 1921. Otherwise, it should already have become common knowledge that Keynes had covered Maxwell in chapter 16 of Part II of the A Treatise on Probability.","PeriodicalId":379670,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Probability (Sub-Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128325678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moment Generating Function, Expectation and Variance of Ubiquitous Distributions with Applications in Decision Sciences: A Review","authors":"Kim-Hung Pho, T. Ho, Tuan-Kiet Tran, W. Wong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3430778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3430778","url":null,"abstract":"Statistics have been widely used in many disciplines including science, social science, business, engineering, and many others. One of the most important areas in statistics is to study the properties of distribution functions. To bridge the gap in the literature, this paper presents the theory of some important distribution functions and their moment generating functions. We introduce two approaches to derive the expectations and variances for all the distribution functions being studied in our paper and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each approach in our paper. In addition, we display the diagrams of the probability mass function, probability density function, and cumulative distribution function for each distribution function being investigated in this paper. Furthermore, we review the applications of the theory discussed and developed in this paper to decision sciences.","PeriodicalId":379670,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Probability (Sub-Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123653947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efficiency Determinants in Brazilian Football Clubs","authors":"Marcelo Machado de Freitas, Rafael Araújo Sousa Farias, L. Flach","doi":"10.15728/EDICAOESP.2017.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15728/EDICAOESP.2017.1","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to analyze the efficiency of Brazilian football clubs in generating revenues and the reasons behind it. To achieve this goal, we applied quantitative methods including Data Envelopment Analysis and Tobit regression modeling to data on the best clubs from 2012 to 2014, according to the Brazilian Football Confederation ranking. The results allowed for the inference that the largest Brazilian clubs, such as Gremio (RS), Palmeiras (SP) and Vasco (RJ), were not efficient in any period under analysis. Others, such as Guarani (SP) and Guaratingueta (SP), were efficient in all of years under consideration. With the Tobit regression model, we were able to determine that winning titles and the elite status of a given club are decisive factors in achieving efficiency. Included among the strategies that allow for greater efficiency in Brazilian clubs are the better utilization of stadiums and club assets, maximization of the financial worth of player popularity, and joining these with titles and a place in the A Series. Finally, the results of this study contribute to the strategic development of the football business, highlighting the positive effects that efficiency yields for clubs, thus supporting the growing body of research on sports management in Brazilian academia.","PeriodicalId":379670,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Probability (Sub-Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126692947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}