Journal of Applied Volcanology最新文献

{"title":"An automated ash dispersion forecast system: case study Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico","authors":"Agustin R. García, J. Zavala-Hidalgo, H. Delgado-Granados, J. Garcia-Escalante, O. Gómez-Ramos, D. Herrera-Moro","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00135-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00135-4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract An operational volcanic ash dispersion forecast system was developed for Popocatépetl. It runs automatically every day developing 108 possible scenarios of ash dispersion for the following 36 h. Scenarios are simulated for three eruption column heights: 3 km, 5 km, and 10 km above the volcano’s crater level, every hour for eruptions lasting 1 h. For each hypothetical eruption that starts every hour, the dispersion during the following 8 h is modelled. The system uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for weather data and the Fall3D model. It includes a visualization website that displays, among other products: ground accumulation, deposit load, and concentration at relevant flight levels. Popocatépetl volcano, located ~ 60 km from Mexico Megacity was selected as a case study. A comparison from ash forecast system results and satellite observations is presented. The system developed and tested here can be adapted to be operative at any volcano.","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136061578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The diversity of volcanic hazard maps around the world: insights from map makers","authors":"Jan M. Lindsay, Danielle Charlton, Mary Anne Thompson Clive, Daniel Bertin, Sarah Ogburn, Heather Wright, John Ewert, Eliza S. Calder, Bastian Steinke","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00134-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00134-5","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The IAVCEI Working Group on Hazard Mapping has been active since 2014 and has facilitated several activities to enable sharing of experiences of how volcanic hazard maps are developed and used around the world. One key activity was a global survey of 90 map makers and practitioners to collect data about official, published volcanic hazard maps and how they were developed. The survey asked questions about map content, design, and input data, as well as about the map development process and key lessons learned. Here we present the results of this global survey, which are then used to quantitatively describe and summarise current practices in volcanic hazard map development. We received entries related to 89 volcanic hazard maps (78% long-term/background maps and 22% short-term/crisis hazard maps), covering a total of 80 volcanoes across 28 countries. Although most maps captured in the survey are volcano-scale maps of stratovolcanoes that show similar types of content, such as primary hazard footprints or zones, they vary greatly in input data, communication style, format, appearance, scale, content, and visual design. This diversity stems from a range of factors, including differences in map purpose, the methodology used, the level of understanding of past eruptive history, the prevailing scientific and cartographic practice at the time, the state of volcanic activity, and variations in culture, national map standards and legal requirements. Experiences and lessons shared by our respondents can be divided into six main themes: map design considerations; the process of map development; map audience and map user needs; hazard assessment approach; map availability and accessibility; and external (e.g., political) influences. Insights shared included the importance of: visual design elements, map testing and evaluation, working with stakeholders and end users to improve a map’s efficacy and relevance, and considering possible unanticipated uses of hazard maps. These free-form text insights (i.e., responses to open-ended questions) from map makers and practitioners familiar with the maps lend depth and clarity to our results. They provide a rich complement to our more quantitative analysis of design elements and of approaches used to determine and delineate map zones. Results from our global survey of hazard map makers and practitioners, together with insights from other key initiatives of the Working Group on Hazard Mapping such as the Volcanic Hazard Maps Database (VHMD; https://volcanichazardmaps.org/ ), provide a snapshot of the wide variety of volcanic hazard maps generated over the past decades, and improve our understanding of the diversity across volcanic hazard mapping practices. These initiatives represent important steps towards fulfilling the aims of the Working Group, namely, to construct a framework for a classification scheme for volcanic hazard maps and to promote harmonized terminology, as well as to identify and categorise goo","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135981740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cost-benefit analysis for evacuation decision-support: challenges and possible solutions for applications in areas of distributed volcanism","authors":"A. Wild, M. Bebbington, J. Lindsay, N. Deligne","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00133-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00133-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42151635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In-situ monitoring of 3He/4He in summit gases of Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii) prior to the 2020 eruption","authors":"G. McMurtry, L. Dasilveira","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00132-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00132-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46105500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis","authors":"W. Aspinall, R. S. Sparks, B. Hill, Antonio Costa, C. Connor, H. Inakura, T. Hasenaka, M. Miyoshi, K. Kiyosugi, Tomohiro Tsuji, M. Ushioda","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00131-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00131-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44299477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Volcanic plume height monitoring using calibrated web cameras at the Icelandic Meteorological Office: system overview and first application during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption","authors":"T. Barnie, T. Hjörvar, M. Titos, E. M. Sigurðsson, Sighvatur K. Pálsson, B. Bergsson, Þorgils Ingvarsson, M. Pfeffer, S. Barsotti, Þ. Arason, Vilhjálmur S. Þorvaldsson, Sibylle von Löwis of Menar, B. Oddsson","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00130-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00130-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46463310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Volcano disaster risk management during crisis: implementation of risk communication in Indonesia","authors":"S. Andreastuti, E. Paripurno, S. Subandriyo, D. Syahbana, Ardhy S. Prayoga","doi":"10.1186/s13617-023-00129-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00129-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41866494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Volcanic Hazard Maps Database: an initiative of the IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk","authors":"S. Ogburn, Danielle Charlton, Diana Norgaard, H. Wright, E. Calder, J. Lindsay, J. Ewert, S. Takarada, Y. Tajima","doi":"10.1186/s13617-022-00128-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-022-00128-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49534069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Continuous estimates of heat emission at Mt. Ruapehu using the Unscented Kalman Smoother","authors":"Y. Behr, S. Sherburn, T. Hurst","doi":"10.1186/s13617-022-00125-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-022-00125-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46274313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A physics-based source model for real-time tephra-dispersal forecasting for weak eruption plumes","authors":"K. Ishii, Akira Nishijo, T. Koyaguchi, Yujiro J. Suzuki","doi":"10.1186/s13617-022-00127-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-022-00127-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37908,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Volcanology","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48251914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}