{"title":"Hidden Illiquidity with Multiple Central Counterparties","authors":"P. Glasserman, C. Moallemi, Kai Yuan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2519647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2519647","url":null,"abstract":"Regulatory changes are transforming the multitrillion dollar swaps market from a network of bilateral contracts to one in which swaps are cleared through central counterparties (CCPs). The stability of the new framework depends on the CCPs’ resilience. Margin requirements are a CCP’s first line of defense against the default of a counterparty. To capture liquidity costs at default, margin requirements need to increase superlinearly in position size. However, convex margin requirements create an incentive for a swaps dealer to split its positions across multiple CCPs, effectively “hiding” potential liquidation costs from each CCP. To compensate, each CCP needs to set higher margin requirements than it would in isolation. In a model with two CCPs, we define an equilibrium as a pair of margin schedules through which both CCPs collect sufficient margin under a dealer’s optimal allocation of trades. In the case of linear price impact, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an equilibrium is that the two CCPs agree on liquidity costs, and we characterize all equilibria when this holds. A difference in views can lead to a race to the bottom. We provide extensions of this result and discuss its implications for CCP oversight and risk management.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114602217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pricing Variance Swaps Under Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rate","authors":"Jiling Cao, G. Lian, Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2485692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2485692","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the effects of imposing stochastic interest rate driven by the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process along with the Heston stochastic volatility model for pricing variance swaps with discrete sampling times. A dimension reduction mechanism based on the framework of Little and Pant (2001) is applied which later reduces to solving two three-dimensional partial differential equations. A semi-closed form solution to the fair delivery price of a variance swap is obtained via the derivation of characteristic functions. Practical implementation of this hybrid model is demonstrated through numerical simulations.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124784857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Credit Risk Impact Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swap Markets","authors":"Markus Hertrich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2426979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2426979","url":null,"abstract":"During the recent financial crisis that erupted in mid-2007, credit default swap spreads increased by several hundred basis points, accompanied by a liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial sector. This period has both evidenced the importance that liquidity has for investors and underlined the need to understand the linkages between credit markets and liquidity. This paper sheds light on the dynamic interactions between credit and liquidity risk in the credit default swap market. Contrary to the common belief that illiquidity leads to a credit risk deterioration in financial markets, it is found that in a sample of German and Swiss companies, credit risk is more likely to be weakly endogenous for liquidity risk than vice versa. The results suggest that a negative credit shock typically leads to a subsequent liquidity shortage in the credit default swap market, in the spirit of, for instance, the liquidity spiral posited by Brunnermaier (2009), and extends our knowledge about how credit markets work, as it helps to explain the amplification mechanisms that severely aggravated the recent crisis and also indicates which macro-prudential policies would be suitable for preventing a similar financial crisis in the future.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128997791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Explicit Martingale Version of the One-Dimensional Brenier's Theorem with Full Marginals Constraint","authors":"P. Henry-Labordère, Xiaolu Tan, N. Touzi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2335969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2335969","url":null,"abstract":"We provide an extension of the martingale version of the Frechet–Hoeffding coupling to the infinitely-many marginals constraints setting. In the two-marginal context, this extension was obtained by Beiglbock and Juillet (2016), and further developed by Henry-Labordere and Touzi (in press), see also Beiglbock and Henry-Labordere (Preprint).","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122551090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pricing Barrier Options and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) in Spectrally One-Sided Levy Models: The Parabolic Laplace Inversion Method","authors":"M. Boyarchenko, S. Levendorskii","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2348194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2348194","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, the advantages of conformal deformations of the contours of integration in pricing formulas were demonstrated in the context of wide classes of Levy models and the Heston model. In the present paper we construct efficient conformal deformations of the contours of integration in the pricing formulas for barrier options and CDS in the setting of spectrally one-sided Levy models, taking advantage of Rogers's trick (J. Appl. Prob. 2000) that greatly simplifies calculation of the Wiener-Hopf factors. We extend the trick to wide classes of Levy processes of infinite variation with zero diffusion component. In the resulting formulas (both in the finite variation and the infinite variation cases), we make quasi-parabolic deformations as in S. Boyarchenko and Levendorskii (IJTAF 2013), which greatly increase the rate of convergence of the integrals. We demonstrate that the proposed method is more accurate than the standard realization of Laplace inversion in many cases. We also exhibit examples in which the standard realization is so unstable that it cannot be used for any choice of the error control parameters.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"538 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127688122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Extracting Credit Spreads from Structural Models Via the Payout Ratio","authors":"G. Grass","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2288086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2288086","url":null,"abstract":"I introduce a new way to imply credit spreads from structural models. The proposed measure, CS_POR, is extracted via the payout ratio as the increase in continuous interest payments to creditors necessary to offset the impact of an increase in asset variance on the option value of debt. I derive CS_POR for the Merton (1974) model of capital structure and use it in an empirical setting to explain variations in the spreads of (i) corporate bonds and (ii) credit default swaps. My measure clearly outperforms its benchmark and even beats predictors from a powerful reduced-form model.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126286605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Model for Dependent Defaults and Pricing Contingent Claims with Counterparty Risk","authors":"D. Gatarek, J. Jabłecki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2264068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2264068","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a new, intuitive but mathematically powerful model of dependent defaults and derives a general framework for pricing products whose values depend on credit correlation between the counterparty and the reference entity. The dependence framework is a natural extension of the Gaussian factor approach, which can be applied in the context of reduced form credit risk models, allowing i.a. for stochastic hazard and recovery rates. The prices of plain vanilla credit default swaps, first-to-default swaps and default swaptions are derived as particular examples.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125148101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamics of Interest Rate Swap and Equity Volatilities","authors":"A. Melé, Yoshiki Obayashi, C. Shalen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2255584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2255584","url":null,"abstract":"While CBOE's VIX index is widely acknowledged as a broad-based investor “fear gauge” for its strong inverse relationship with major equity indexes, one cannot necessarily expect it to translate to the level of future turbulence or investor risk aversion in fixed-income markets. Indeed, expected volatilities in equity and interest rate markets as measured respectively by CBOE's VIX and their newly-launched swap rate volatility index -- SRVX -- exhibit significantly distinct behaviors. The two indexes react to different events and risk factors, thereby providing investors with complementary diversification, hedging, and risk-taking tools.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115611182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Alternative Swap Rate Model","authors":"Deimante Rheinlaender","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2208152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2208152","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an alternative swap rate model for the pricing and hedging of swap rate path dependent European payoffs. We derive the absence of arbitrage condition for the conditional expectation approximation. The swap rate model relies on approximating all conditional expectation processes using the standard techniques. The resulting model is able to incorporate the absence of arbitrage constraint together with functional relations when several conditional expectations are involved. The approach is illustrated on the variance swap example.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"89 8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123172195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multi-Agent Financial Network (MAFN) Model of US Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO): Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Negative CDS Carry Trade and Systemic Risk Analysis","authors":"S. Markose, B. Oluwasegun, S. Giansante","doi":"10.4018/978-1-4666-6268-1.CH030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-6268-1.CH030","url":null,"abstract":"A database driven multi-agent model has been developed with automated access to US bank level FDIC Call Reports which yield data on balance sheet and off balance sheet activity, respectively, in Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS). The simultaneous accumulation of RMBS assets on US banks' balance sheets and also large counterparty exposures from CDS positions characterized the 2 trillion Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) market. The latter imploded by end of 2007 with large scale systemic risk consequences. Based on US FDIC bank data, that could have been available to the regulator at the time, we investigate how a CDS negative carry trade combined with incentives provided by Basel II and its precursor in the US, the Joint Agencies Rule 66 Federal Regulation No. 56914 which became effective on January 1, 2002, on synthetic securitization and credit risk transfer (CRT), led to the unsustainable trends and systemic risk. The resultant market structure with heavy concentration in CDS activity involving 5 US banks can be shown to present too interconnected to fail systemic risk outcomes. The simulation package can generate the financial network of obligations of the US banks in the CDS market. We aim to show how such a multi-agent financial network (MAFN) model is well suited to monitor bank activity and to stress test policy for perverse incentives on an ongoing basis.","PeriodicalId":378972,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Swaps & Forwards (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130588753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}