Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review最新文献

{"title":"The Military Power of Russia – a Means for Activating an Expansionist Policy","authors":"Erikas Kaukas","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The majority of scientific research on the international behavior of Russia has so far been largely grounded on political decisions made exceptionally by its political elite. However, in this article, the author is trying to prove that political decisions are first of all based on material resources of the state, and this, in turn, can likely determine the causality between the military power of the state and its foreign policy. Therefore, Russian military power is treated in this article as a means of carrying out expansionist foreign policy. The premise is raised that the growth of Russia‘s military power is related to its aspiration to strengthen its influence in the post-Soviet region. The analysis of Russia‘s security and defense policy, defense expenditure, military capabilities and military activeness reveals that the military power of Russia is growing with a dual aim: (1) to deter NATO and the EU from further enlargement; and (2) to retain and/or expand its influence in the post-Soviet states.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"100 - 81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66986147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Relevance and Influence of Small States in NATO and the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy","authors":"V. Urbelis","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Small states are important and visible players in international politics. Their power is limited, and their economy and military capability may not match those of their larger neighbours, but small states enjoy certain advantages that increase their abilities to influence international politics. This article tries to show and explain how small states can act and exploit their advantages in a wider international arena. The main aim is to show ways and methods for small states to act and pursue their policy goals. This article analyses the behaviour of small states inside two major European security actors: NATO and the EU. Several examples will be presented in detail, namely, air policing in the Baltic states and the Lithuanian Presidency in the European Council. These examples clearly show the achievements and failures of small states in international politics.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"117 4 1","pages":"61 - 78"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/lasr-2015-0004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66986089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Paris, Moscow, and “Europe out of the EU”","authors":"Philippe Perchoc","doi":"10.1515/LASR-2015-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/LASR-2015-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Under the presidencies of Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, the French diplomats were keen to strengthen the partnership between Paris and Moscow as it served French interests on the international stage. In this context, this article demonstrates that Eastern-Central Europe (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the Caucasus) is of secondary interest for French diplomacy, unless it provides an opportunity to highlight Paris’ role in international affairs. The Georgian war in 2008, the Mistral issue, and the Ukraine crises are several good illustrations of this phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"47 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66985701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intellectual Reflection and Civil-Military Relations in Lithuania","authors":"Deividas Šlekys","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Civil-military relations in Lithuania have serious deficiencies, which have appeared because of the emulation of a recommended Western model of civilian control. After regaining Independence, Lithuania had the difficult task of creating its armed forces and system of national defence following the Western model. At the same time we had to implement two political programs: to create functioning armed forces and a institutional-legal system of democratic civil-military control. However, this control is not only proper laws and functioning institutions. Equally, an important role must be given to intellectual reflection, which enables the posing of questions such as: what is war; how is the character of war changing; how does this affect Lithuanian defence policies and the perception of threats? Raising such questions inside the armed forces and in wider political and civil society is an essential condition for having effective and flexible civilian control over the military.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"215 - 241"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66986413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Volunteer Soldiers‘ Attitudes to Service in the Lithuanian Military","authors":"Eglė Vileikienė, Aušra Pocienė, Jolanta Aleknevičienė","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article presents an analysis of volunteer soldiers as a link between the Lithuanian military and society, their attitudes towards military service and their motivation to serve in the Lithuanian army. The authors looked at soldiers’ dedication to defend their Homeland and motives for serving in the Lithuanian army, presenting an assessment of the situation in the ranks and their overall satisfaction with military service. Volunteer soldiers’ expectations are also discussed, as well as their motives to remain in service, plus there are also recommendations for attracting new soldier recruits. The article concludes with the statement that Lithuanian volunteer soldiers are an important unifying link between the Lithuanian army and society, and can significantly contribute to the formation of the image of the soldier’s profession in society. Besides the social status that comes with military service and the satisfaction of financial needs, volunteer soldiers are exclusively characterised by strong patriotic feelings which determine their motivation to serve and defend their Homeland. The article’s findings rest on data from the complex sociological research study “Motivation to serve in the Ministry of Defence Volunteer Forces of the Lithuanian Military” which was conducted in April–November, 2014 by the Strategic Research Centre at the Institute of Military Science of the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"243 - 265"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66986542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Constitutional Fundamentals of Conscription and Some Aspects of the Ordinary Legal Regulation of Constitutionality","authors":"Kristina Kenstavičienė","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Article 139 of the Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania is one of the constitutional fundamentals of state defense and stipulates the defense of the state as the right of citizens on the one hand and the duty on the other. This article of the Constitution gives the legislative power the right of discretion to detail by law the order of the implementation of citizens’ duty to perform military or alternative country defense service. Due to the reorganization of the armed forces into a professional and volunteer army, the issue of some ordinary regulation rules concerning the constitutionality of nationwide conscription, though at present suspended but not abolished, is becoming urgent. Though the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Lithuania presented their ruling on the constitutionality of the suspension of military conscription, it does not mean that all problems related to conscription have been settled. The aim of this article is to analyze the constitutional basis of nationwide conscription as well as the constitutionality of some ordinary regulation provisions related to nationwide conscription. Therefore, the issue to be analyzed is whether nationwide conscription, if it were to be implemented, complies with the constitutional principles of human equality and military justice1. Consequently, the question is posed how the constitutional objective of ensuring the defense of the state determines conscription. Because of the growing employment of the army abroad, yet the dwindling demand for conscripts, it should be explored whether the suspension of the nationwide conscription as a part of the defense reform is further feasible in order to guarantee the defense of the state. In answering the raised questions, the author will analyze the abundant and long-lasting constitutional doctrine of Germany which provides clarifications of the Basic Law, as the legal act of the establishing power, which can doubtless be of assistance in interpreting (nationwide) conscription as established in the Constitution of Lithuania.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"191 - 213"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66986696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century","authors":"E. Vareikis","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia) as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"11 - 26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66985337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of the Conflict in Ukraine on Lithuanian Security Development","authors":"Linas Kojala, Vytautas Keršanskas","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract After regaining independence in 1990, Lithuania chose a strategic path to integrate into Western organizations, with clear priorities for the European Union and NATO, the biggest military alliance in the world. In Russia, such direction was regarded as a threat to its influence in the post-Soviet area. Hence the article seeks to provide an overview of Lithuania’s security policy, with specific emphasis on the role of Russia, in the recent quarter century. The aim is to distinguish key priorities for Lithuania and assess their practical implementation. Furthermore, the paper seeks to analyse the impact of the war in Ukraine, both on Lithuanian and regional security as well as the development of key security priorities.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"171 - 189"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66986034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Of Iron or Wax? The Effect of Economic Integration on the Reliability of Military Alliances***","authors":"Vincentas Vobolevičius, Greta Gerazimaitė","doi":"10.1515/lasr-2015-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/lasr-2015-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we analyze what determines if a military alliance represents a credible commitment. More precisely, we verify if economic integration of military allies increases the deterrent capability of an alliance, and its effectiveness in the case of third-party aggression. We propose that growing intra-alliance trade creates audience costs and sunk costs for political leaders who venture to violate conditions of an alliance treaty. Therefore, intensive trade can be regarded as a signal of allies’ determination to aid one another in the case of third party aggression, and a deterrent of such aggression. Regression analysis of bilateral fixed-term mutual defense agreements concluded between 1945 and 2003 reveals that large trade volumes among military allies indeed reduce the likelihood that their political leaders will breach alliance commitments. Intra-alliance trade also displays a number of interesting interaction effects with the other common predictors of military alliance reliability such as shared allies’ interests and values, symmetry of their military capabilities, their geographic location and domestic political institutions.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"43 1","pages":"27 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66985634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Dynamics of Lithuanian-Polish Strategic Partnership","authors":"Andžej Pukšto, Ieva Karpavičiūtė, Mindaugas Norkevičius","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2014-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2014-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper aims at identifying relations between the events which influence Lithuanian-Polish strategic cooperation, defining principal aspects of cooperation dynamics, and analysing recent challenges in relations between Lithuania and Poland. For the purpose of analysis the following objectives have been set: 1) to analyse the development of strategic partnership and political dialogue in bilateral relations; 2) to evaluate the importance of security, defence policy, and economic projects in cooperation between the states; 3) to assess the aspect of ethnic minorities in the context of bilateral relations. The authors of the paper seek to review the principal internal and external factors which affect bilateral cooperation between Lithuania and Poland. The following methods of analysis are used in the paper: public statements made by officials, document analysis and discourse formed by the media. The key areas of analysis are the development of political dialogue, strategic cooperation, security and defence policy, economic and energy cooperation, and questions of ethnic minorities in bilateral relations. Presently in the field there is a lack of thorough investigation of similarities and differences of strategic cooperation between Lithuania and Poland.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"12 1","pages":"115 - 149"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69228634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}