{"title":"Examination of models for cholera: insights into model comparison methods","authors":"Olcay Akman, Marina Romadan Corby, Elsa Schaefer","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2016.1211495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2016.1211495","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides an overview of the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria as applied to the setting of deterministic modelling, with the perspective that this may be a useful tool for biomathematics researchers whose primary interests lie in the analysis of compartmental models. We additionally examine a wide range mechanistic and parameter assumptions in the cholera literature through the unifying lens of model selection criteria. Five models for cholera are considered using multiple model selection formulations, and implications for cholera modelling and for model selection criteria are discussed.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"3 1","pages":"118 - 93"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2016.1211495","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60101862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The spruce budworm and forest: a qualitative comparison of ODE and Boolean models","authors":"R. Robeva, D. Murrugarra","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2016.1197804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2016.1197804","url":null,"abstract":"Boolean and polynomial models of biological systems have emerged recently as viable companions to differential equations models. It is not immediately clear however whether such models are capable of capturing the multi-stable behaviour of certain biological systems: this behaviour is often sensitive to changes in the values of the model parameters, while Boolean and polynomial models are qualitative in nature. In the past few years, Boolean models of gene regulatory systems have been shown to capture multi-stability at the molecular level, confirming that such models can be used to obtain information about the system’s qualitative dynamics when precise information regarding its parameters may not be available. In this paper, we examine Boolean approximations of a classical ODE model of budworm outbreaks in a forest and show that these models exhibit a qualitative behaviour consistent with that derived from the ODE models. In particular, we demonstrate that these models can capture the bistable nature of insect population outbreaks, thus showing that Boolean models can be successfully utilized beyond the molecular level.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"3 1","pages":"75 - 92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2016.1197804","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60102303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ashley Dantzler, M. Hujoel, V. Parkman, A. Wild, S. Lenhart, Benjamin Levy, R. Wilkes
{"title":"Canine distemper outbreak modeled in an animal shelter","authors":"Ashley Dantzler, M. Hujoel, V. Parkman, A. Wild, S. Lenhart, Benjamin Levy, R. Wilkes","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2016.1148644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2016.1148644","url":null,"abstract":"Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious virus that can cause outbreaks, specifically in crowding situations, such as an animal shelter, in which a large number of susceptible dogs are brought together. Introduction of this virus into a shelter can have devastating effects, potentially resulting in shelter canine depopulation. Motivated by recent outbreaks in Tennessee, a mathematical model was constructed to find relevant factors that could assist in preventing or reducing outbreaks. A system of ordinary differential equations was derived to represent the spread of CDV through susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered (S–E–I–R) classes as well as a vaccinated (V) class. Our model was adapted to represent a local Knoxville shelter. The effects of various control methods, both preventative and corrective, on disease spread were investigated.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"3 1","pages":"13 - 28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2016.1148644","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60102201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Derdei Bichara, S. Holechek, J. Velázquez-Castro, Anarina L. Murillo, C. Castillo-Chavez
{"title":"On the dynamics of dengue virus type 2 with residence times and vertical transmission","authors":"Derdei Bichara, S. Holechek, J. Velázquez-Castro, Anarina L. Murillo, C. Castillo-Chavez","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2016.1212678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2016.1212678","url":null,"abstract":"A two-patch mathematical model of Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that accounts for vectors’ vertical transmission and between patches human dispersal is introduced. Dispersal is modelled via a Lagrangian approach. A host-patch residence-times basic reproduction number is derived and conditions under which the disease dies out or persists are established. Analytical and numerical results highlight the role of hosts’ dispersal in mitigating or exacerbating disease dynamics. The framework is used to explore dengue dynamics using, as a starting point, the 2002 outbreak in the state of Colima, Mexico.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"7 1","pages":"140 - 160"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2016.1212678","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60101869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bottom-up ecology: an agent-based model on the interactions between competition and predation","authors":"I. Karsai, Emil Montano, T. Schmickl","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2016.1217756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2016.1217756","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We developed an agent-based computer model of an ecosystem to predict interactions of competition and predation. In our simulations of the model, the effects of the ‘Gause law’ emerged as the results of population fluctuations and a large number of stochastic events. Small biases in life history parameters produced strong effects through the interactions of positive feedback with the population fluctuations. In a low-production environment, the smaller and faster consumer outcompetes the larger and slower one, but in a high production environment the larger and slower consumer survives. Predation hastens the extinction of one of the consumers, but niche partitioning of the consumers increases both the coexistence of consumers and the number of predators. Predators with medium efficiency are able to coexist in the system longer and in larger numbers. Besides the ecological insights this model provides, we conclude that agent-based simulations are very effective tools to explore the interactions between predation and competition interactions.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"3 1","pages":"161 - 180"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2016.1217756","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60102323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantifying distribution in carbon uptake and environmental measurements with the Gini coefficient","authors":"M. Safi, J. Zobitz","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2016.1144489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2016.1144489","url":null,"abstract":"The Gini coefficient is a measure used in economics to evaluate the equitability of the distribution of a resource across a population. This project applied the Gini coefficient as a classification method for a decade-long data set consisting of environmental observations and carbon flux data for a coniferous forest in Finland. Our results show consistency in the Gini coefficient for environmental variables, even with interannual variation in the measurements during the carbon uptake period or when the ecosystem is absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. The Gini coefficient calculations showed this ecosystem has an inequitable distribution of carbon uptake and release within the carbon uptake period, which is comparable to the inequitable distribution of temperature and precipitation during the same time period. We also calculated the percentage of the carbon uptake period that has passed for different cumulative proportions of a measurement. Future applications of the Gini coefficient to other ecosystems will enhance knowledge of the distribution of environmental and flux measurements across the carbon uptake period.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"3 1","pages":"1 - 12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2016.1144489","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60102143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling and simulation: helping students acquire this skill using a Stock and Flow approach with MathBench","authors":"I. Karsai, Katerina V. Thompson, Kären C. Nelson","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2015.1035348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2015.1035348","url":null,"abstract":"Computational and modelling skills are vital to most fields of biological research, yet traditional biology majors have no or little opportunity to develop these skills during their undergraduate education. We describe an approach, which can address this issue by a synergy of online resources called MathBench modules and Stock and Flow modelling. Using a step-by-step method starting with a MathBench ‘bootcamp’, we were able to achieve a significant gain in quantitative skills of students with no previous experience with model building. At the end of the course, the students were able to construct and analyse complex models and gained confidence in mathematical skills.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"2 1","pages":"1 - 12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2015.1035348","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60101485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling the evolution and expected lifetime of a deme’s principal gene sequence","authors":"B. Clark","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2015.1040859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2015.1040859","url":null,"abstract":"The principal gene sequence (PGS), defined as the most common gene sequence in a deme, is replaced over time because new gene sequences are created and compete with the current PGS, and a small fraction become PGSs. We have developed a set of coupled difference equations to represent an ensemble of demes, in which new gene sequences are introduced via chromosomal inversions. The set of equations used to calculate the expected lifetime of an existing PGS include inversion size and rate, recombination rate and deme size. Inversion rate and deme size effects are highlighted in this work. Our results compare favourably with a cellular automaton-based representation of a deme.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"2 1","pages":"13 - 28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2015.1040859","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60101552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Letters in BiomathematicsPub Date : 2015-01-01Epub Date: 2015-10-22DOI: 10.1080/23737867.2015.1090890
Eli Thompson, Jasmine Everett, Jonathan T Rowell, Jan Rychtář, Olav Rueppell
{"title":"The Evolution of Cooperation is Affected by the Persistence of Fitness Effects, the Neighborhood Size and their Interaction.","authors":"Eli Thompson, Jasmine Everett, Jonathan T Rowell, Jan Rychtář, Olav Rueppell","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2015.1090890","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23737867.2015.1090890","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Evolutionary Game Theory and the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) Game in particular have been used to study the evolution of cooperation. We consider a population of asexually reproducing, age-structured individuals in a two-dimensional square lattice structure. The individuals employ fixed cooperative or defecting strategies towards their neighbors in repeating interactions to accumulate reproductive fitness. We focus on the effects of the persistence of past interactions and interactive neighborhood size on the evolution of cooperation. We show that larger neighborhood sizes are generally detrimental to cooperation and that the persistence of fitness effects decreases the likelihood of the evolution of cooperation in small neighborhoods. However, for larger neighborhood sizes the persistence effect is reversed. Thus, our study corroborates earlier studies that population structure increases the evolutionary potential for cooperative behavior in a PD paradigm. This finding may explain the heterogeneity of previous results on the effect of neighborhood size and cautions that the persistence of fitness outcomes needs to be considered in analyses of the evolution of cooperative behavior. The persistence of fitness outcomes of pairwise interactions may vary dramatically in biological and social systems and could have profound effects on the evolution of cooperation in various contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"2 1","pages":"67-78"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4798257/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60102069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Crossing the Threshold: the role of density dependence and demographic stochasticity in the evolution of cooperation","authors":"T. Lofaro","doi":"10.1080/23737867.2015.1109481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2015.1109481","url":null,"abstract":"We make two simplifications to a joint population model developed by M. Doebeli et al. of two populations whose growth rates depend on total population density and pay-offs governed by the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. One population uses the ‘Always Defect’ strategy and the second uses the ‘Tit for Tat’ (TFT) strategy. In the deterministic model, there are two simple basins of attraction that lead to the extinction of one or the other population. In particular, a small TFT population cannot spread from rarity. We compute the boundary between these two regions. If, on the other hand, the growth rate of the TFT population is stochastic, then it is possible for the TFT population to become established if the growth rate at any given time is sufficiently large to allow the TFT population to cross the threshold computed in the deterministic model. We describe the factors that increase the likelihood of TFT establishment and explain why density dependence is an essential feature of the model. In particular, we show that if the relative advantage of defecting is small compared to the benefits of cooperating, then there is an increased likelihood that cooperation will evolve.","PeriodicalId":37222,"journal":{"name":"Letters in Biomathematics","volume":"2 1","pages":"79 - 90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/23737867.2015.1109481","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60102121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}