Financial Innovation最新文献

{"title":"Forecasting relative returns for S&P 500 stocks using machine learning","authors":"Htet Htet Htun, Michael Biehl, Nicolai Petkov","doi":"10.1186/s40854-024-00644-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-024-00644-0","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting changes in stock prices is extremely challenging given that numerous factors cause these prices to fluctuate. The random walk hypothesis and efficient market hypothesis essentially state that it is not possible to systematically, reliably predict future stock prices or forecast changes in the stock market overall. Nonetheless, machine learning (ML) techniques that use historical data have been applied to make such predictions. Previous studies focused on a small number of stocks and claimed success with limited statistical confidence. In this study, we construct feature vectors composed of multiple previous relative returns and apply the random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and long short-term memory (LSTM) ML methods as classifiers to predict whether a stock can return 2% more than its index in the following 10 days. We apply this approach to all S&P 500 companies for the period 2017–2022. We assess performance using accuracy, precision, and recall and compare our results with a random choice strategy. We observe that the LSTM classifier outperforms RF and SVM, and the data-driven ML methods outperform the random choice classifier (p = 8.46e−17 for accuracy of LSTM). Thus, we demonstrate that the probability that the random walk and efficient market hypotheses hold in the considered context is negligibly small.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140627681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A firm-specific Malmquist productivity index model for stochastic data envelopment analysis: an application to commercial banks","authors":"Alireza Amirteimoori, Tofigh Allahviranloo, Maryam Nematizadeh","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00583-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00583-2","url":null,"abstract":"In the data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature, productivity change captured by the Malmquist productivity index, especially in terms of a deterministic environment and stochastic variability in inputs and outputs, has been somewhat ignored. Therefore, this study developed a firm-specific, DEA-based Malmquist index model to examine the efficiency and productivity change of banks in a stochastic environment. First, in order to estimate bank-specific efficiency, we employed a two-stage double bootstrap DEA procedure. Specifically, in the first stage, the technical efficiency scores of banks were calculated by the classic DEA model, while in the second stage, the double bootstrap DEA model was applied to determine the effect of the contextual variables on bank efficiency. Second, we applied a two-stage procedure for measuring productivity change in which the first stage included the estimation of stochastic technical efficiency and the second stage included the regression of the estimated efficiency scores on a set of explanatory variables that influence relative performance. Finally, an empirical investigation of the Iranian banking sector, consisting of 120 bank-year observations of 15 banks from 2014 to 2021, was performed to measure their efficiency and productivity change. Based on the findings, the explanatory variables (i.e., the nonperforming loan ratio and the number of branches) indicated an inverse relationship with stochastic technical efficiency and productivity change. The implication of the findings is that, in order to improve the efficiency and productivity of banks, it is important to optimize these factors.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140612467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tokenomics in the Metaverse: understanding the lead–lag effect among emerging crypto tokens","authors":"Chong Guan, Wenting Liu, Yinghui Yu, Ding Ding","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00594-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00594-z","url":null,"abstract":"The convergence of blockchain and immersive technologies has resulted in the popularity of Metaverse platforms and their cryptocurrencies, known as Metaverse tokens. There has been little research into tokenomics in these emerging tokens. Building upon the information dissemination theory, this research examines the role of trading volume in the returns of these tokens. An empirical study was conducted using the trading volumes and returns of 197 Metaverse tokens over 12 months to derive the latent grouping structure with spectral clustering and to determine the relationships between daily returns of different token clusters through augmented vector autoregression. The results show that trading volume is a strong predictor of lead–lag patterns, which supports the speed of adjustment hypothesis. This is the first large-scale study that documented the lead–lag effect among Metaverse tokens. Unlike previous studies that focus on market capitalization, our findings suggest that trade volume contains vital information concerning cross-correlation patterns.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140587701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heterogeneity in the volatility spillover of cryptocurrencies and exchanges","authors":"Meiyu Wu, Li Wang, Haijun Yang","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00585-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00585-0","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the volatility spillovers in four representative exchanges and for six liquid cryptocurrencies. Using the high-frequency trading data of exchanges, the heterogeneity of exchanges in terms of volatility spillover can be examined dynamically in the time and frequency domains. We find that Ripple is a net receiver on Coinbase but acts as a net contributor on other exchanges. Bitfinex and Binance have different net spillover effects on the six cryptocurrency markets. Finally, we identify the determinants of total connectedness in two types of volatility spillover, which can explain cryptocurrency or exchange interlinkage.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140588025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme connectedness between cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens: portfolio implications","authors":"Waild Mensi, Mariya Gubareva, Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee, Tamara Teplova, Sang Hoon Kang","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00586-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00586-z","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the connectedness between major cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens (NFTs) for different quantiles employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach. We find that lower and upper quantile spillovers are higher than those at the median, meaning that connectedness augments at extremes. For normal, bearish, and bullish markets, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin consistently remain net transmitters, while NFTs receive innovations. However, spillover topology at both extremes becomes simpler—from cryptocurrencies to NFTs. We find no markets useful for mitigating BTC risks, whereas BTC is capable of reducing the risk of other digital assets, which is a valuable insight for market players and investors.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140587962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing efficiency in prices and trading volumes of cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic with fractal, chaos, and randomness: evidence from a large dataset","authors":"Salim Lahmiri","doi":"10.1186/s40854-024-00628-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-024-00628-0","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the market efficiency in the prices and volumes of transactions of 41 cryptocurrencies. Specifically, the correlation dimension (CD), Lyapunov Exponent (LE), and approximate entropy (AE) were estimated before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we applied Student’s t-test and F-test to check whether the estimated nonlinear features differ across periods. The empirical results show that (i) the COVID-19 pandemic has not affected the means of CD, LE, and AE in prices, (ii) the variances of CD, LE, and AE estimated from prices are different across pre-pandemic and during pandemic periods, and specifically (iii) the variance of CD decreased during the pandemic; however, the variance of LE and the variance of AE increased during the pandemic period. Furthermore, the pandemic has not affected all three features estimated from the volume series. Our findings suggest that investing in cryptocurrencies is advantageous during a pandemic because their prices become more regular and stable, and the latter has not affected the volume of transactions.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140587713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates: an analysis based on recurrence plots and visual boundary recurrence plots","authors":"Ioannis Andreadis, Athanasios D. Fragkou, Theodoros E. Karakasidis, Apostolos Serletis","doi":"10.1186/s40854-024-00611-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-024-00611-9","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we compare the dynamics of the growth rates of the original Divisia monetary aggregates, the credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates, and the credit card-augmented Divisia inside monetary aggregates. This analysis is based on the methods of recurrence plots, recurrence quantification analysis, and visual boundary recurrence plots which are phase space methods designed to depict the underlying dynamics of the system under study. We identify the events that affected Divisia money growth and point out the differences among the different Divisia monetary aggregates based on the recurrence and visual boundary recurrence plots. We argue that the broad Divisia monetary aggregates could be used for monetary policy and business cycle analysis as they are exhibiting less fluctuation compared to the narrow Divisia monetary aggregates. They could positively affect policy decisions regarding environmental choices and sustainability. We also point out the changes in the monetary dynamics locating the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140587706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal portfolio selection with volatility information for a high frequency rebalancing algorithm","authors":"Mahmut Bağcı, Pınar Kaya Soylu","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00590-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00590-3","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a high-frequency rebalancing algorithm (HFRA) and compare its performance with periodic rebalancing (PR) and threshold rebalancing (TR) strategies. PR refers to the process of adjusting the relative weight of assets within portfolios at regular time intervals, whereas TR is a process of setting allocation limits for portfolios and rebalancing when portfolios exceed a specific percentage of deviation from the target allocation. The HFRA is constructed as an integration of pairs trading and a threshold-based rebalancing strategy, and the profitability of the HFRA is examined to determine the optimal portfolio size. The HFRA is applied to a dataset of real price series from cryptocurrency exchange markets across various trends and volatility regimes. Using cointegrated price data, it is shown that increasing the number of assets in a portfolio supports the profitability of the HFRA in an up-trend and reduces the potential loss of the HFRA in a down-trend in a high-volatility environment. For low-volatility regimes, although increasing portfolio size marginally enhances the HFRA’s profitability, the profits of portfolios of varied sizes do not significantly differ. It is demonstrated that when volatility is relatively high and the trend is upward, the HFRA can yield a substantial return via portfolios of large sizes. Moreover, the profitability of the HFRA is compared with that of the PR and TR strategies for long-term application. The HFRA is more profitable than the PR and TR strategies. This achievement of the HFRA is also validated statistically using the Fisher–Pitman permutation test.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140301431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comprehensive MCDM assessment for economic data: success analysis of maximum normalization, CODAS, and fuzzy approaches","authors":"Mahmut Baydaş, Mustafa Yılmaz, Željko Jović, Željko Stević, Sevilay Ece Gümüş Özuyar, Abdullah Özçil","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00588-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00588-x","url":null,"abstract":"The approach of evaluating the final scores of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods according to the strength of association with real-life rankings is interesting for comparing MCDM methods. This approach has recently been applied mostly to financial data. In these studies, where it is emphasized that some methods show more stable success, it would be useful to see the results that will emerge by testing the approach on different data structures more comprehensively. Moreover, not only the final MCDM results but also the performance of normalization techniques and data types (fuzzy or crisp), which are components of MCDM, can be compared using the same approach. These components also have the potential to affect MCDM results directly. In this direction, in our study, the economic performances of G-20 (Group of 20) countries, which have different data structures, were calculated over ten different periodic decision matrices. Ten different crisp-based MCDM methods (COPRAS, CODAS, MOORA, TOPSIS, MABAC, VIKOR (S, R, Q), FUCA, and ELECTRE III) with different capabilities were used to better visualize the big picture. The relationships between two different real-life reference anchors and MCDM methods were used as a basis for comparison. The CODAS method develops a high correlation with both anchors in most periods. The most appropriate normalization technique for CODAS was identified using these two anchors. Interestingly, the maximum normalization technique was the most successful among the alternatives (max, min–max, vector, sum, and alternative ranking-based). Moreover, we compared the two main data types by comparing the correlation results of crisp-based and fuzzy-based CODAS. The results were very consistent, and the “Maximum normalization-based fuzzy integrated CODAS procedure” was proposed to decision-makers to measure the economic performance of the countries.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140128641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global uncertainty and potential shelters: gold, bitcoin, and currencies as weak and strong safe havens for main world stock markets","authors":"Ewa Feder-Sempach, Piotr Szczepocki, Joanna Bogołębska","doi":"10.1186/s40854-023-00589-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00589-w","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates five safe-haven asset responses from 2014 to 2022, including the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and sharp US interest rate increases of 2015 and 2022. We apply the unique approach of the multivariate factor stochastic volatility (MSV) model, which is extremely efficient for financial market analysis and allows us to conduct dynamic factor analysis of safe-haven relationships that cannot be observed directly. The research sample consists of five prospective safe-haven assets—gold, bitcoin, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc—and five primary world stock market indices—the S&P 500, Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100, DAX, STOXX Europe 600, and Nikkei 225. Our findings are useful for investors searching for the best safe-haven assets among gold, bitcoin, and currencies to hedge against financial turmoil in global stock markets. Our unique findings suggest that safe-haven effects work differently for gold and the yen; that is, the Japanese yen acts as the strongest safe haven across all stock indices. Bitcoin is not a strong safe-haven currency since it has zero days of negative correlations with the considered stock indices, but it is a weak safe-haven during times of financial distress. Consequently, we state that strong and weak safe-haven properties vary across time and place. The novelty of our study lies in the methodological complexity of the MSV model (used for the first time to find the best safe-haven asset properties), dynamic factor analysis, a long-term research sample covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and an international investor perspective focusing on the world’s leading stock markets. We extend earlier studies by analyzing the interrelations of the world’s leading stock market indices with five potential safe-haven assets during the long period of 2014–2022 and using a unique dynamic factor analysis to show the differentiated behaviors of the Japanese yen and gold. Additionally, the main innovative contribution is a new framework of weak and strong safe-haven asset classifications not previously applied in the literature.","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140106721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}