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Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Missile Defense 核威慑，战略稳定，导弹防御
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-10-23
Alexander G. Savelyev
{"title":"Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Missile Defense","authors":"Alexander G. Savelyev","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-10-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-10-23","url":null,"abstract":"The article addresses a set of problems pertaining to nuclear deterrence, strategic stability, and missile defense. The author states that as a derivative of nuclear deterrence strategic stability can only be applied to military-strategic relations between Russia and the United States. This concept “does not work” in all other cases, including the multilateral format of relations. Nuclear deterrence is more universal and impacts, among other things, the decision-making process in relatively strong and weak nuclear states that oppose each other. The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is not determined solely by the balance of opposing forces. No less important is the assessment by a potential aggressor of all the negative consequences of its decision to strike first, which creates the “self-deterrence” effect that outweighs even the aggressor’s absolute confidence in the complete military success of its nuclear attack. The author also insists that missile defense is undeservedly considered a “destabilizing” weapons system, because the baseline scenario involving a massive exchange of nuclear strikes, which is used for estimating the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and the level of strategic stability, is completely far-fetched.","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135844189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Not Against, but Beyond the West 不是反对，而是超越西方
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-5-8
Fyodor A. Lukyanov
{"title":"Not Against, but Beyond the West","authors":"Fyodor A. Lukyanov","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-5-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-5-8","url":null,"abstract":"By the fall of 2023, the military campaign in Ukraine had become an integral part of the international political and economic landscape. When the current conflict ends, whatever the outcome for its direct participants, it is the countries of the World Majority whose positions will strengthen the most―not only China, which is often mentioned as the winner of the confrontation between Russia and the West, but a group of countries that previously played a subordinate role but are now gaining freedom of action.","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135844486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Talking Politics: Vladimir Putin’s Narrative on Contemporary History (2019-2022) 谈论政治:弗拉基米尔·普京对当代历史的叙述(2019-2022)
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-58-75
Alexei I. Miller
{"title":"Talking Politics: Vladimir Putin’s Narrative on Contemporary History (2019-2022)","authors":"Alexei I. Miller","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-58-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-58-75","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at Vladimir Putin’s public statements and articles devoted specially to historical issues which were published in 2019 through 2021 (with reference to the first such article published in 2009). The Russian President’s statements and extended texts on history are scrutinized in this paper as political messages having a certain target audience and political goals. The analysis has revealed a rapid evolution of Putin’s approach to relations with the West in 2019-2021, from attempts to reanimate the dialogue to a sharp confrontation. It has also proved the hypothesis that Putin’s views on history serve not so much as the basis for his political decisions as instruments of their legitimization for society and opponents.","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69355822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Russian Foreign-Policy Culture and the Horde: A Hypothesis 俄罗斯外交政策、文化与部落:一个假说
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-76-104
T. Bordachev
{"title":"Russian Foreign-Policy Culture and the Horde: A Hypothesis","authors":"T. Bordachev","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-76-104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-76-104","url":null,"abstract":"This article scrutinizes the historical impact of the Mongolian Horde on Russia’s foreign policy behavior. The author comes up with a hypothesis that relations with the Horde were not only important for Russia during the critical historical period of its formation, but also largely determined its unique foreign-policy culture and practical implementation of Russian foreign policy in subsequent periods. The author maintains that the key element of this impact was peaceful integration of the powerful neighbor which posed the biggest threat to the Great Russians for more than two hundred years.","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69355831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Inversion of U.S. Strategy 美国战略反转
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-1-200-212
Alexei A. Krivopalov
{"title":"Inversion of U.S. Strategy","authors":"Alexei A. Krivopalov","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-1-200-212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-1-200-212","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69355919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Same Same, but Different: Strategic Relations in the Russia-India-China-U.S. Quadrangle 同同而异:俄印中美战略关系四边形
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-3-205-208
G. Makarevich
{"title":"Same Same, but Different: Strategic Relations in the Russia-India-China-U.S. Quadrangle","authors":"G. Makarevich","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-3-205-208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-3-205-208","url":null,"abstract":"We should not forget about the undesirability of downplaying the importance of partners in their relations with third countries. The perception of any third power as a “junior partner” does not contribute to the development of constructive ties. Strategic partnership cannot be reduced to a common denominator. This is worth remembering if anyone attempts to oppose strategic relationships in order to influence the perception of counterparts.","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69355988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign Companies’ Behavior in the Russian Market under Sanctions: Speculation and Reality 制裁下外国企业在俄罗斯市场的行为:猜测与现实
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-47-64
Ekaterina Ya. Arapova, Svetlana I. Balakhonova
{"title":"Foreign Companies’ Behavior in the Russian Market under Sanctions: Speculation and Reality","authors":"Ekaterina Ya. Arapova, Svetlana I. Balakhonova","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-47-64","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-47-64","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to assess the scale of foreign companies’ withdrawal from the Russian market after the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine as well as the possibility of replacing them with counterparties from jurisdictions that have not joined anti-Russian sanctions. Expert assessments are based on the original database on foreign business behavior compiled by the Institute for International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s MGIMO University. The analysis shows that relatively small foreign companies are leaving the Russian market, while large international corporations are scaling back their operations in Russia and are more inclined to adapt to the new conditions. The negative impact on the Russian economy as a whole appears to be not as big as the assessment based on the Yale Database of foreign companies would suggest. The Russian IT sector, the business services sector, and the financial sector have expectedly proved to be relatively more vulnerable. At the same time, the natural resources sector (power and mining industries) is relatively more stable, and cooperation with state-owned (or state-affiliated) companies in jurisdictions that do not support sanctions against Russia has the best prospects.","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135844502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central Asia in Change amid the New Great Game 新大博弈中的中亚变化
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-138-148
Huasheng Zhao
{"title":"Central Asia in Change amid the New Great Game","authors":"Huasheng Zhao","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-138-148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-138-148","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135844789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sino-U.S. Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific: Declarations and Actual Policies 中美。亚太地区的竞争:宣言和实际政策
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-1-153-173
Alexander V. Lukin
{"title":"Sino-U.S. Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific: Declarations and Actual Policies","authors":"Alexander V. Lukin","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-1-153-173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-1-153-173","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135470788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Between Two Special Operations 两次特别行动之间
Russia in Global Affairs Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-5-10
F. Lukyanov
{"title":"Between Two Special Operations","authors":"F. Lukyanov","doi":"10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-5-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-2-5-10","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36949,"journal":{"name":"Russia in Global Affairs","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69355787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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