Ecological Modeling eJournal最新文献

Carbon Consumption, the Carbon-Based Ecosystem, and Output 碳消费、碳基生态系统与产出

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3442532

Cristian Figueroa, Rodrigo Harrison, Roger Lagunoff, M. Miranda

{"title":"Carbon Consumption, the Carbon-Based Ecosystem, and Output","authors":"Cristian Figueroa, Rodrigo Harrison, Roger Lagunoff, M. Miranda","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3442532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3442532","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effects of the carbon-based ecosystem on a country's output. We propose and estimate a dynamic game production model in which a country's ecosystem, as measured by its reservoir of carbon in land biomass and soils, is a productive input. This reservoir is diminished when higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations reduce land sink absorption of atmospheric carbon. In equilibrium, a country's land carbon policy accounts for its direct effects on the ecosystem and on diminished land sink as GHG concentrations increase. \u0000We first estimate land sink absorption rates and the output elasticities of land use and the land carbon ecosystem for 152 countries. Calibrating the model to these estimates, \u0000we simulate the model to 2100 under four standard Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. In the simulations, all countries experience higher average annual GDP growth under lower GHG concentration scenarios. The growth differentials between high and low scenarios are starkest for more developed countries. When compared to a counterfactual constant sink model, the ``active\" sink makes little difference in low concentration scenarios, but decreases global GDP growth by around 1.3% per year over the next 80 years in the highest scenario. Again, the differences are most pronounced in developed countries.","PeriodicalId":367176,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modeling eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128475971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A Weighted Spatio-Temporal Model for County Yields 县域产量的加权时空模型

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3447047

M. Ames, Guillaume Bagnarosa, Suikai Gao, Tomoko Matsui, G. Peters

引用次数: 0

Vegetarianism: A Life Style for Sustainable Development 素食主义:可持续发展的生活方式

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2019-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3334823

T. Jain, Er. Nirupa Jain

引用次数: 0

Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review 经济结构演化与气候变化的模型研究综述

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3319852

Tommaso Ciarli, M. Savona

{"title":"Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review","authors":"Tommaso Ciarli, M. Savona","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3319852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3319852","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss how different models assessing climate change integrate aspects of structural change that are crucial to improve understanding of the relation between changes in the environment and in the economy. We identify six related aspects of structural change, which have significant impact on climate change: sectoral composition, industrial organisation, technology, employment, final demand, and institutions. Economic models vary substantially with respect to the aspects of structural change that they include, and how they model them. We review different modelling families and compare these differences: integrated assessment models (IAM), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural change models (SCM), ecological macroeconomics models in the Keynesian tradition (EMK) and evolutionary agent based models (EABM). We find that IAM and CGE address few of the aspects of structural change identified; SCM focus on the sectoral composition; and EKM study final demand and employment structure. But all these models are aggregate and omit the complexity of the interactions between structural and climate change. EABM have explored a larger number of aspects of structural change, modelling their emergence from the interaction of microeconomic actors, but have not yet exploited their potential to study the interactions among interrelated aspects of structural and climate change.","PeriodicalId":367176,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modeling eJournal","volume":"47 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129262296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 47

Ecofeminism and Accounting: New Avenues for Accounting for Sustainable Development 生态女性主义与会计:可持续发展会计的新途径

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3429724

Delphine Gibassier

引用次数: 0

Confronting Climate Skepticism: Ramsey Carbon Taxation and Pricing Under Ambiguity 直面气候怀疑论:模糊性下的拉姆齐碳税和定价

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2018-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3291641

Peter von zur Muehlen

{"title":"Confronting Climate Skepticism: Ramsey Carbon Taxation and Pricing Under Ambiguity","authors":"Peter von zur Muehlen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3291641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3291641","url":null,"abstract":"The literature on optimal climate policy typically assumes that the government and the private sector are in full agreement about the causes of global warming. Instead, this paper assumes that the private sector is skeptical about the science of climate change and adheres to distorted subjective beliefs regarding the probability distribution governing global temperatures. Further, these private beliefs are assumed to be unknown and unknowable to the fiscal authority. This paper considers two cases: one in which the government knows the correct probability distribution of exogenous climate shocks and believes unknown private beliefs to be false, and one in which it does not know the true distribution nor private sector beliefs, which, however, it it believes to be correct. The government's ignorance about beliefs and/or about the model leads it to add a worst case premium to the conventional measure of the social cost of carbon that typically anchors carbon taxes in the literature. Furthermore, the difference in beliefs produces a positive gap between the government's and the private sector's stochastic discount factors potentially justifying a further premium on the carbon tax as well as a subsidy on capital. The results are presented within the context of robust asset pricing theory that allows framing the problem in terms of Arrow-Debreu state-contingent carbon prices to show that the optimal carbon tax is the same as the permit price of an underlying asset --- the government-imposed cap on emissions in economies with cap and trade.","PeriodicalId":367176,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modeling eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115551552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Potential Forest Loss and Biodiversity Risks from Road Improvement in Lao PDR 老挝人民民主共和国道路改善带来的潜在森林损失和生物多样性风险

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8569

Stephen Danyo, S. Dasgupta, D. Wheeler

{"title":"Potential Forest Loss and Biodiversity Risks from Road Improvement in Lao PDR","authors":"Stephen Danyo, S. Dasgupta, D. Wheeler","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8569","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops and applies a spatial econometric model that links road upgrading to forest clearing and biodiversity loss in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. The paper uses 500-meter cells to estimate the relationship between the rate of forest clearing in a cell and its distance to the closest point on the nearest road link, the quality of that link, the cell's legal protection status, transport cost to the nearest urban center, the agricultural opportunity value of the land, and terrain elevation. The parameter estimates are all robust, with the expected signs and very high statistical significance. The paper highlights the results that measure the impact of improved road quality on forest clearing through shorter transport times to market and lower vehicle maintenance costs. The estimated response parameters and a composite biodiversity indicator are used to compute an index of expected biodiversity loss from road upgrading in each 500meter cell. The results identify areas in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic where high expected biodiversity loss may warrant additional protection as road upgrading continues. This analysis will help policy makers in the country to weigh context-specific trade-offs between development and conservation objectives associated with road improvement.","PeriodicalId":367176,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modeling eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132205842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

A Poisson Gamma Model for Zero Inflated Rainfall Data 零膨胀降水资料的Poisson - Gamma模型

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2018-02-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3312167

N. Dzupire, P. Ngare, L. Odongo

{"title":"A Poisson Gamma Model for Zero Inflated Rainfall Data","authors":"N. Dzupire, P. Ngare, L. Odongo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3312167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3312167","url":null,"abstract":"Rainfall modeling is significant for prediction and forecasting purposes in agriculture, weather derivatives, hydrology, risk and disaster preparedness. Normally two models are used to model the rainfall process as a chain dependent representing the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. Such two models helps to understand the physical features and dynamics of rainfall process. However rainfall data is zero inflated and exhibit overdispersion which is always underestimated by such models. In this study we have modeled the two processes simultaneously as a compound Poisson process. The rainfall events are modeled as a Poisson process while the intensity of each rainfall event is Gamma distributed. We minimize overdispersion by introducing the dispersion parameter in the model implemented through Tweedie distributions. Simulated rainfall data from the model shows a resemblance of the actual rainfall data in terms of seasonal variation, means, variance and magnitude. The model also provides mechanisms for small but important properties of the rainfall process. The model developed can be used in forecasting and predicting rainfall amounts and occurrences which is important in weather derivatives, agriculture, hydrology, and predicting of drought and flood occurrences. ","PeriodicalId":367176,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modeling eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131354539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The Pause in Global Warming: A Numerical Approach 全球变暖的暂停:一个数值方法

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2015-09-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2659755

Jamal Munshi

引用次数: 1

Institutions and Cumulative Change 制度与累积变化

Ecological Modeling eJournal Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3303103

O. Ollinaho

{"title":"Institutions and Cumulative Change","authors":"O. Ollinaho","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3303103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3303103","url":null,"abstract":"This paper conceptualizes a cumulative type of change through the lens of sociology of knowledge. Such sociomaterial change produced through the reproduction of social practices is characterized by uneventfulness in objective dimension and taken for grantedness in subjective perceptions—issues largely neglected in the literature of institutional change and environmentally oriented social theory alike. The task of conceptualizing cumulative change necessitates redefining physical materiality as stuck and loose matter and seeing the constitution of such changes as a reciprocal process between objective institutional processes and subjective perceptions. The argument of this paper provides an explanation why growing environmental destruction has not disrupted the very practices that produce such adverse cumulative changes. This paper has a number of implications on institutional theory and social theory, in general. In essence, the new conceptualization of matter allows analytically differenting between cognitive and material aspects of institutional processes and relating micro and macro levels of institutions. Furthermore, some social structures can be seen to produce cumulative changes through their very reproduction, while agency is needed to stop such changes.","PeriodicalId":367176,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modeling eJournal","volume":"206 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114354677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0