International Trade Working Paper最新文献

{"title":"Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Commodities Exports from Commonwealth Countries","authors":"Salamat Ali, Marco Fugazza, Brendan Vickers","doi":"10.14217/e6eddcb5-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/e6eddcb5-en","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the salience of commodities in Commonwealth members' merchandise trade and estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the commodities exports to five main markets: China, the USA, the European Union (EU-27), the UK and Australia. The analysis finds that commodities constitute almost half of Commonwealth countries' global merchandise exports but the share for 35 commodity-dependent Commonwealth countries is above 80 per cent. The COVID-19 shock has been perceived as a global negative shock hurting all sectors and all markets. Overall, the results suggest that dependency patterns have at best been maintained because of the pandemic shock. At worst, and especially among highly dependent commodity exporters, the pandemic has further accentuated a fragile macroeconomic situation already under pressure as a result of heightened price fluctuations in several commodity markets.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127255501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Assessment of the Impact of the Slowdown of the Chinese Economy on Commonwealth Member Countries","authors":"Syed Mortuza Ehsan, Salamat Ali","doi":"10.14217/4dc1bc5a-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/4dc1bc5a-en","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most prominent factors contributing to sluggish global trade growth in recent years has been the rebalancing of China's economy from being investment-oriented to consumption-driven since 2012. This has resulted in dwindling import demand for commodities and raw materials from many Commonwealth countries, as well as a slump in commodity prices worldwide. This paper explores the impacts of China's sluggish economic growth on Commonwealth member countries' long- and short-run trade dependencies. Its findings suggest that, while all areas of Commonwealth member countries have suffered from trade contraction, two significantly affected areas are Commonwealth sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Commonwealth small and vulnerable economies (SVEs). Its trade elasticity estimation suggests that Commonwealth trade dependency on Chinese economic expansion has faltered since 2011. It also finds that, while the Global South's relative significance in Commonwealth trade has been almost stagnant during the past decade, for Commonwealth SSA and SVEs it has continued to rise.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"GE-24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126565771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Critical Reflection on International Support for Least Developed Countries","authors":"Daniel Gay, T. Hartzenberg, J. Keane","doi":"10.14217/4aaec566-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/4aaec566-en","url":null,"abstract":"International support to least developed countries (LDCs) falls in the areas of trade, development cooperation and assistance with participation in the inter-governmental process. With 10 years of the 2030 Agenda to go, and before the fifth 10-year Programme of Action for LDCs starts in 2021, there is a need to re-evaluate the system of international support. Some LDCs are performing well, but key international targets have been missed. On average the contributions of trade and investment remain too low. Several LDC economies are contracting and becoming more vulnerable. Taking a critical look at the theory and assumptions underlying international support makes it possible to propose new assistance mechanisms, as opposed to falling back on the mainstream position, which is implicitly based on the misleading premises that better international market access, aid and participation in existing multilateral processes will prompt spontaneous economic catch-up and sustainable development. Exposure to undistorted international prices will not alone drive the reorganisation of production or a move towards greater domestic efficiency. Duty-free, quota-free market access has benefited a select few countries. Official development assistance to LDCs is declining and may fall short of objectives. As structuralists, developmentalists and others have long emphasised, governments and the international community need to promote active measures aimed at building productive capacity. In a power-based global system, developed countries and regions often shape the system of support for LDCs in their own interests – a recognition that is all the more important when commitment to multilateralism is faltering. Dependency theorists stress the importance of power relations and the interdependent nature of the global economic core and periphery. Rather than individual ad hoc assistance or promises of more aid, there is a need for deep-rooted, systemic improvement to the multilateral architecture relating to LDCs – driven by LDC governments themselves and differentiated according to context. Acknowledging these ideas, this Working Paper proposes six areas of support, relating to the UN system, finance, trade, commodities, technology, and the environment and climate change. Each is accompanied by specific proposals that could be considered in the run-up to UNLDC-V and beyond. JEL Classifications: F18, P45, Q01","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126712197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digital Technologies, Trade and Development","authors":"J. Macgregor","doi":"10.14217/ec42278a-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/ec42278a-en","url":null,"abstract":"Historically, technology has served as a critical driver of globalisation, underpinning the rapid expansion in world trade and driving human progress, raising living standards and welfare, and precipitating transformative improvements in human health, education, and economic and social development. Digital technologies are enabling economy-wide innovation at an unprecedented rate, unleashing new opportunities globally. Members of the Commonwealth are at the forefront of this wave of innovation. Yet the disruption is wide, the implications for sectors are unclear and the threat to comparative advantages is universal. One clear objective is for greater collaboration among members of the Commonwealth to mitigate risks and maximise opportunities to further amplify the ‘Commonwealth advantage’ in trading relationships.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115351688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Post-MC11 Trade Agenda for the Least Developed Countries","authors":"D. Bhattacharya, Mustafiz Rahman, Anika Muzib Suchi","doi":"10.14217/EF4773C8-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/EF4773C8-EN","url":null,"abstract":"Drawing on the negotiations and other developments that transpired in the run up to MC11 and thereafter, the paper underlines four core directions to be considered while giving shape to a revamped LDC agenda. First, the de facto dissolution of the DDA entails that LDCs pick the issues from the Doha Agenda with the most potential, such as sectoral issues. Second, the LDC group should strategically remain engaged with the new issues, particularly in negotiations on fishery subsidies and e-commerce. Third, as regards governance and structural issues, LDCs need to marshal their strength against any attempt to weaken the dispute settlement system, and need to take a strategic approach to find a balance between Doha Round negotiations and plurilateral discussions. Finally, the LDCs should strengthen Aid for Trade inputs to ensure their smooth and sustainable graduation out of the LDC group.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115796467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade Impacts of Joining the Commonwealth","authors":"M. Abdou, Ben Shepherd","doi":"10.14217/c90aef65-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/c90aef65-en","url":null,"abstract":"The Commonwealth's member countries share unique historical ties, as well as resilient diaspora communities with linguistic and institutional similarities. These links could facilitate co-operation and contribute to increased trade, investment and labour flows. This working paper sets out to distill these linkages and their effects from other formal and informal mechanisms that can and do promote trade in the case of Rwanda. The difference in the growth rates of Rwanda's intra- and extra-Commonwealth exports before and after its became a member in 2009 shows some evidence of an increase in intra-Commonwealth trade, but this is not always statistically significant in the case of goods. Neighbouring countries with which Rwanda entered into a trade agreement in the same year account for an important part of the observed differences in growth rates. The model controls for exogenous factors such as language, colonial history and regulatory/legal heritage, as well as unobservable country-specific factors, so any effect of Commonwealth membership comes from other sources. This gives us an opportunity to examine more closely informal mechanisms such as those pertaining to information exchange that may support the evidence presented.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125908939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Has Aid for Trade Influenced the Likelihood of Graduation from Least Developed Country Status?","authors":"J. Keane, L. Borgatti","doi":"10.14217/9a300115-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/9a300115-en","url":null,"abstract":"Several econometric techniques with different degrees of sophistication have been used to assess the impact of Aid for Trade (AfT) on trade and other economic performance in recipient countries, especially at the macro level, not all of which have proved conclusive. However, this line of enquiry has not been pursued in relation to whether AfT disbursed to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) has resulted in an increased likelihood of graduation. We therefore explore the relationship between AfT expenditures and the likelihood of graduation from LDC status. Total AfT disbursements per capita to those LDCs unlikely to graduate by 2021 have been constantly higher compared to LDCs likely to graduate by 2021 in recent years. However, disbursements to LDCs likely to graduate have tended to focus on specific sectors, such as communications, business and other services, which have significantly influenced the likelihood of graduation. These sectors have significantly interacted with others, notably agriculture, tourism and mining. These results, related to structural economic transformation within and between sectors, deserve further attention related to stimulating graduation with momentum.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129455221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade Governance and Intra-Commonwealth Trade","authors":"S. Khorana, I. Martínez‐Zarzoso","doi":"10.14217/7a54439f-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/7a54439f-en","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on twenty-first century trade governance patterns within Commonwealth countries. The specific research questions it explores are: first, what is the distinction between the ‘trade governance’ and ‘good governance’ agendas? Second, what indicators exist for measuring trade governance and how its use can foster trade gains for the Commonwealth countries? Third, what policies can promote trade governance and enhance the Commonwealth Advantage – that is, higher intra-Commonwealth trade and investment and lower trade costs. Using an augmented gravity model, we examine the relationship between Commonwealth countries’ exports and trade governance, foreign direct investment, intellectual property rights, trade facilitation and contract enforcement. Results show a complementary relationship between exports and governance indicators. We find a positive correlation between Commonwealth countries’ exports and foreign direct investment flows, intellectual property rights and trade facilitation variables, while efficient contract enforcement is important for intra-Commonwealth trade.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128923274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aid for Trade in the Services Sector","authors":"Pallavi Bajaj","doi":"10.14217/5d228f60-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/5d228f60-en","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes the effective use of Aid for Trade (AfT) programmes as one possible means of addressing some of the challenges faced by LDCs and small states in the services sector. It examines possible ways to enhance the capacity and competitiveness of small states and LDCs in developing their services sectors via greater integration into the global trade regime, by utilising the strengths of AfT. The key to optimising AfT in the services sector requires a focus on technology.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130858314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bangladesh's Apparel Exports to the EU","authors":"M. Razzaque, J. Rahman","doi":"10.14217/C6F8A6AE-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14217/C6F8A6AE-EN","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the EU market to analyse the potential implications of LDC graduation for Bangladesh's apparel exports. By using a partial equilibrium model, it estimates that discontinuing tariff preferences could lead to a potential export loss of more than US$1.6 billion. While the methodological approach employed in this paper has certain caveats, there is no denying that terminating duty-free access in the EU, resulting in a tariff hike of 9.6 per cent, will put serious pressure on Bangladesh's export competitiveness. This paper gathers several buyers and exporters' perceptions to provide insights into the issues and offers some broad recommendations to mitigate any adverse effects.","PeriodicalId":363457,"journal":{"name":"International Trade Working Paper","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133492861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}