Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas最新文献_第2页

Baltic Dry Index Estimation With NARX Neural Network Model 基于NARX神经网络模型的波罗的海干散货指数估计

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.4

Gamze Kılınç, T. Kocabiyik, Meltem Karaatlı

{"title":"Baltic Dry Index Estimation With NARX Neural Network Model","authors":"Gamze Kılınç, T. Kocabiyik, Meltem Karaatlı","doi":"10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.4","url":null,"abstract":"BDI is a global trade indicator followed by those interested in maritime trade. But it has volatility, seasonality, and uncertain cyclicality. For this reason, in this study, the BDI has been estimated to provide preliminary information to those interested in maritime trade. NARX Neural Network which performs successfully in complex and nonlinear real-life problems is used. In addition, the NARX neural network model has not been found in a previous study used for BDI estimation. Eleven independent variables are used in this study, what increases the predictive power. Independent variables are Bloomberg Commodities Index (BCOM), Twitter-Based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU), Twitter-Based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU), S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index, €/$ Parity, VIX (CBOE), US 10-Year Bond Yield (%), Brent Oil (USD/Barrel), Economic Uncertainty Index and World Trade Volume (USD Billion). The Twitter-Based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU) and Twitter-Based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU), which were not used before in BDI estimation studies, were included in the analysis and contributed to the literature. The data set contains daily data for the period 9.07.2012–31.08.2020. 11-day estimate values covering 1.09.2020–15.09.2020 are calculated. MAPE, MAE and RMSE performance criteria were calculated for the estimation values. Value of MAPE (2.96%), value of MAE (36.6%) and value of RMSE (46.68) were obtained. As a result, the estimate values were compared with the actual values.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45874935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Investigation of the Influence of Economic Growth on Taxes in Lithuania 立陶宛经济增长对税收影响的研究

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-03-22 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.3

Erstida Ulvidienė, Irma Meškauskaitė, A. Stavytskyy, V. Giedraitis

引用次数: 1

Optimization of Media Strategy via Marketing Mix Modeling in Retailing 基于营销组合模型的零售媒体策略优化

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.1

Y. Fareniuk, G. Chornous

{"title":"Optimization of Media Strategy via Marketing Mix Modeling in Retailing","authors":"Y. Fareniuk, G. Chornous","doi":"10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.1","url":null,"abstract":" The paper describes the marketing mix modeling results for companies in nonfood retailing. The main objectives of the research are to demonstrate the viable way of making effective recommendations for optimizing the media strategy by modeling offline and online traffic to the stores based on econometric modeling and to develop a decision support system, which enhance the effective growth of business KPIs and an effective decision-making process. Econometric modeling, deeper data analysis, decision support were implemented on the data of one of the main retailers in Ukraine in a period before the full-scale Russian invasion. Estimating the impact of different communication channels on business results made basis for ROI calculations and optimization of media investments allocation among media channels by periods, video durations, type of advertising and with optimal weekly media pressure. ROMI calculation was based on the results of regression modeling, which estimate the level of traffic and sales generated by each media channel. The information-analytical decision support system based on an interactive dashboard has been developed for improvement of day-by-day business planning and management. The developed framework of regional strategy selection facilitates to the formation of a strategic vision on a regional scale and improves the quality of a regional media strategy.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44263672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Testing Convergence of Fiscal Policies in Regions of Turkey 对土耳其地区财政政策趋同性的检验

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2023.102.1.2

Göksel Karaş, Ebru Karaş

引用次数: 0

Time-Varying and Quantile-Based Relationship among Geopolitical Risks, Oil and Gold Prices 地缘政治风险、石油和黄金价格之间的时变和基于数量的关系

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-01-23 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.8

Erkan Kara, Remzi Gök

{"title":"Time-Varying and Quantile-Based Relationship among Geopolitical Risks, Oil and Gold Prices","authors":"Erkan Kara, Remzi Gök","doi":"10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.8","url":null,"abstract":"This paper probes the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR), WTI oil, and gold prices utilizing the time-varying causality and quantile regression approaches. The sample period spans from January 1986 to January 2022, comprising 433 monthly observations and representing the longest common period of data availability. The results show that there is no causality between the pairs of GPR–WTI, and GPR–gold prices for the full sample period, while the causality between gold and WTI is unidirectional, running from gold to WTI. Using the rolling causality test, however, the findings show that the dynamic causal relations strengthen over time. The Granger causality from the gold prices to GPR and WTI is stronger than the other way around, suggesting that the gold market dominates the other two variables in terms of strength of the lead-lag structure of causality. Besides, the findings reveal the strongest causation effects between GPR and WTI spot prices. Before 2009, the causal relationship between WTI and GPR is mostly unidirectional while also a bidirectional linkage emerges, coinciding with the crisis periods including the Dot-Com and 2007 US Subprime crises. During the causal periods, these variables respond negatively to changes in others. For the COVID19 period, the direction of causality considerably changes in favor of WTI for the GPR–WTI pair whereas it is unchanged for the WTI–gold pair. The results indicate that WTI has positive and negative predictive powers for GPR and gold while it receives negative and positive causation effects from GPR and gold during the pandemic, respectively. The results, in overall, may offer important insights for investors and regulatory authorities in building portfolio and risk management strategies as well as pricing and trading activities and constructing monetary policies over various market conditions.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41671534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Digital business agility 数字业务敏捷性

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2302075u

Bogdan Ubiparipović, Lazar Raković, Slobodan Marić, Vuk Vuković

引用次数: 0

Green marketing in the function of sustainable development 绿色营销在可持续发展中的作用

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2302061p

S. Popović, Milica D. Cvetkovic, M. Avramović

{"title":"Green marketing in the function of sustainable development","authors":"S. Popović, Milica D. Cvetkovic, M. Avramović","doi":"10.5937/ekonomika2302061p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2302061p","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of green marketing arose in response to climate change and global warming. As a part of a holistic marketing concept, green marketing includes activities related to adapting production processes, product modification, improving packaging and product labeling systems, communicating the environmental benefits of products, in a way that has minimal negative effects on the environment. According to the principles of green marketing, every instrument in the marketing mix has a green perspective. National economies and enterprises have recognized the value of green marketing in meeting the needs and demands of consumers, but also as an incentive for growth and expansion of economic activities. The paper analyzes the concept of green marketing, as well as the instruments of the green marketing mix to understand its importance in modern business conditions. Environmental taxation, as an integral part of green marketing, indicates the importance and significance of preserving the environment in the function of growth and development of the economy. It is emphasized that the marketing strategy should be a response to the changing market needs, but also an incentive to create environmental awareness of consumers.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71211885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Warehouse receipt finance in the agricultural sectors: Lessons learned in Serbia 农业部门的仓单融资:塞尔维亚的经验教训

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2301059k

V. Kovačević, Ljiljana Rajnović, P. Vuković

{"title":"Warehouse receipt finance in the agricultural sectors: Lessons learned in Serbia","authors":"V. Kovačević, Ljiljana Rajnović, P. Vuković","doi":"10.5937/ekonomika2301059k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2301059k","url":null,"abstract":"Aim of this paper is to analyse the role of warehouse receipts in the agribusiness sector, as well as prerequisites for successful public warehouses system. Warehouse receipt emerge as a promising financial instrument for farmers and other owners of agricultural products to provide loan against warehouse receipts. Warehouse receipts also offer alternative investment opportunities for banks by creating a new asset class. The paper analyses the experiences of the Serbia, which introduced the system of public warehouses in 2009. Applied research methodology includes literature review, comparation analyses and Indemnity fund' data analyses. According to the results of this paper, Serbian legal framework can be good example for other countries aiming to establish public warehouses system as a system consisting on all necessary prerequisite to establidh successful public warehouse system. After positive experiences in the initial years, the development of the public warehouse system in Serbia came to a standstill in 2015., when two frauds in the public warehouse system occurred, which led to a loss of confidence in public. An important lesson learned in Serbia is that in addition to complete legislation based on the experience of successful public warehouse systems, it is necessary to implement legal provisions in practice. According to the results of the paper, the main cause of the crash of public warehouses in Serbia is despite the legal provision on the establishment of a special inspection for public warehouses, this most important link has never been established in practice. Lessons learned in Serbia can be a useful experience for other countries, j the process of establishing this important system for agribusiness sector. This paper provides first comprehensive analyses of the public warehouse system in the Serbia.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71212319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Development trends of the textile industry of the Republic of Serbia in labyrinths neoliberal growth model 新自由主义增长模式迷宫中塞尔维亚共和国纺织业的发展趋势

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2303001g

Živorad Gligorijević, Enes Ćorović

{"title":"Development trends of the textile industry of the Republic of Serbia in labyrinths neoliberal growth model","authors":"Živorad Gligorijević, Enes Ćorović","doi":"10.5937/ekonomika2303001g","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2303001g","url":null,"abstract":"The textile industry of the Republic of Serbia, for a long time, has been one of the key drivers of economic growth, the mainstay of exports, demographic change and the bearers of social policy. However, in the period from 2000 to 2008, that is, in the period of application of the neoliberal model of growth, it was treated by the creators of economic policy as a relic of the past and the socialist model of growth and continuously recorded negative production results. In accordance with the above, the main goal of the research in this paper is to analyze the key macroeconomic indicators to consider the development trends of this industry in this period. The analysis used the method of induction, while the analysis of competitiveness of the textile industry of Serbia used the following indicators: market share analysis and RCA index (revealed competitive advantage index). The results of the research clearly indicate the disastrous consequences of the application: first, shock therapy in the liberalization of trade flows, second, the wrong model of privatization and third, inadequate economic policy measures, but also the fact that the textile industry has maintained a significant share in exports Republic of Serbia.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135057692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Determinants of banks net interest income: The example of Serbia 银行净利息收入的决定因素:以塞尔维亚为例

Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2301025d

Miloš Đaković, N. Milenković, Jelena Andrašić

{"title":"Determinants of banks net interest income: The example of Serbia","authors":"Miloš Đaković, N. Milenković, Jelena Andrašić","doi":"10.5937/ekonomika2301025d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2301025d","url":null,"abstract":"Net interest income represents one of the main indicators of banks' profitability. In practice, return on assets (ROA) and return on capital (ROE) indicators are most often used as indicators, but the topic of this study is the investigation of determinants, that have the greatest impact on the net interest income of banks in the Serbian market. The research is based on numerous previous analyzes of factors that have effects on the profitability of banks in many countries. This study covers the period from 2014 to 2021 and includes a total of 22 banks currently operating in the Serbian market. The data used for the purposes of the research were taken from the financial reports of the banks themselves, as well as the World Bank database. In the research, the authors take Net Interest Margin (NIM) as a dependent variable, while as independent variables they take indicators of Net Non-Interest Margin (NNIM), Liquidity (LIQ), Debts (LOAN), Bank Size (SIZE), Non-performing loans (NPL) and Unemployment (UNEM). In the analysis, the authors analyzed the correlation matrix, the Levin, Lin & Chu unit root test, the variance inflation index, as well as the derivation of regression models based on fixed and random effects. The findings showed a negative effect of liquidity and bank size factors on direction of net interest margin, while debt and unemployment indicators showed a positive influence.","PeriodicalId":36306,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71211656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0